Looking at today’s numbers, the EU is over 800k new infections per day, and the US is over 700k. Deaths, however, still seem pretty steady at around 1500 on average per day, so it hasn’t rocketed up as I feared. Still, the sheer number of new infections per day is concerning. My WAG is that the EU will peak soon, but the US peak is probably still a few weeks off, so the US will overtake the EU, probably by the end of this week or early next week.
5546 deaths in just the past 2 days.
You need to look at it for more than 2 days to get a good idea of the average. That said, looking at the current data it might have nudged up from the 1500 per day average to something closer to or even over 2000 per day. It’s hard to say right now as the data is all over the place. Still, it’s not what I feared, which was a much more pronounced increase. US cases right now are at the 790k mark with the EU over 900k and I am not seeing the data peaking.
Just to put this in context, everyone was freaking earlier in the year when India was at nearly 400k per day. The US blew past that threshold on January 2nd and we’ve been rocketing up since then.
The current 7-day average is 1825 deaths per day and is trending upward.
It’s been frustrating how often figures are reported in the media without adjusting/normalizing for population. The per-capita case rate and per-capita death rate are the best ways to compare between two countries.
India’s population is 1.4 billion; 400,000 cases per day is just 28.6 cases per day per 100K people.
The US population is 330 million; 790,000 cases per day is 239 cases per day per 100K people. In other words, the incidence in the US is about 8.4 times worse than in India.
The same situation occurs when trying to compare one US state with another.
With 3 weeks to go, it’s definitely not going to be less than a thousand a day: with 47,975 deaths since New Years day, the average for the first 46 days of 2022 will already be more than that.
7 day average now at 2200/day and not trending down yet.
And that is higher than the peak of Delta which was 2,114/day according to Our World in Data.
3244 deaths today according to worldometer. That’s the highest since Feb10 2021. With cases going down, hopefully we’ve reached the peak.
US cases seem to be dropping quite rapidly at this point, however. We seem to have peaked on January 15th at nearly 800k per day, and now it’s down to a bit over 400k per day and dropping sharply. I’m a bit surprised, to be honest…I didn’t think we’d peak until mid-February. The EU seems to have peaked as well, though if so it’s only just started down (they are currently at 1.2 million per day). As deaths lag infections, I expect our own deaths to continue to go up for at least the next 2 weeks (it’s currently at 2400 and change…not close to the high for us, which seems to have been January 24ths, 2021, and at 3500 or so).
ETA: I went back and checked, and I voted for 2000 per day, which seems to be fairly on point for early 2022…assuming we don’t have another huge outbreak.
With 10 days to go, we’re currently averaging 2304 deaths a day.
We should now start predicting when the US will hit one million dead.
They say your first million is the hardest.
Worldometer has us at just shy of 93,000 Covid deaths so far this year through 2/12. So we’re already over 2000 deaths per day through 2/15.
I didn’t make a prediction, which is just as well: my predictometer has been totally busted since you-know-who came down the escalator back in 2015.
I’ll need to do the math late but it looks like the end number is 949,269 Americans dead.
Who’s that?
Right now, Worldometers is saying 952,603 dead and we’re still averaging nearly 2,000 deaths a day. This rate will decrease in the next few months, but I think we’ll hit 1 million by June.
I hope you’ve not bet the house on this. To hit 1 million by 1 June from today you have to drop death rates immediately from tomorrow to 460 per day.
You’ll very probably hit 1 million by early March, mid-month at the latest.
It looks like sources differ on the number of dead. According to Google (google “US COVID deaths”), as of 2022/02/17, the total number of US COVID dead is 927,000, and the current 7-day average death rate is 2292 per day, trending downward. If it held steady at 2K per day we’d expect to hit 1M by St. Patrick’s Day, but the daily death rate will probably decline precipitously over the next few weeks.
If we assume 953K currently dead, we’ll hit 1M sooner, but not by a lot. Given the declining daily death rate, an estimate of 1M US COVID deaths is not unreasonable.
Excess mortality methods disregard official cause of death and just measure how many more people died within a given time period than we would have expected based on historical data. Using this method, we are already substantially over 1M dead in the US. Click here and go to the section named “Estimated excess mortality from The Economist” (you can use the link in the list at the top of that page). In the chart, click “Change country” and select the US to see the data.
The CDC has the current number of deaths from this site at:
Looking at the Our World in Data site, the US 7 day rolling infection rate is dropping really fast. It was still over 400k per day last time I checked in. Today, according to the site, it’s 136k and still dropping. The EU is at 750k per say currently, to put that in context.
Yeah. There is variation on the # of dead for different sources. That’s why I specified Worldometers. NYT is always lower. CDC and Ourworldindata report later, but they coincide with NYT.
Either way, as you say, we are probably underreporting deaths so excess deaths have already surpassed 1 M.
According to one of the modeling sites, we passed 1 M nearly a month ago.