How many US deaths do you expect in early 2022?

Looking at today’s numbers, the EU is over 800k new infections per day, and the US is over 700k. Deaths, however, still seem pretty steady at around 1500 on average per day, so it hasn’t rocketed up as I feared. Still, the sheer number of new infections per day is concerning. My WAG is that the EU will peak soon, but the US peak is probably still a few weeks off, so the US will overtake the EU, probably by the end of this week or early next week.

5546 deaths in just the past 2 days.

You need to look at it for more than 2 days to get a good idea of the average. That said, looking at the current data it might have nudged up from the 1500 per day average to something closer to or even over 2000 per day. It’s hard to say right now as the data is all over the place. Still, it’s not what I feared, which was a much more pronounced increase. US cases right now are at the 790k mark with the EU over 900k and I am not seeing the data peaking.

Just to put this in context, everyone was freaking earlier in the year when India was at nearly 400k per day. The US blew past that threshold on January 2nd and we’ve been rocketing up since then.

The current 7-day average is 1825 deaths per day and is trending upward.

It’s been frustrating how often figures are reported in the media without adjusting/normalizing for population. The per-capita case rate and per-capita death rate are the best ways to compare between two countries.

India’s population is 1.4 billion; 400,000 cases per day is just 28.6 cases per day per 100K people.

The US population is 330 million; 790,000 cases per day is 239 cases per day per 100K people. In other words, the incidence in the US is about 8.4 times worse than in India.

The same situation occurs when trying to compare one US state with another.