Coronavirus general discussion and chit-chat

The Quarantine Zone
1305

Not only is that not what I said, but the reply you are quoting has me tell you that’s not what I said.

I am not sure how to be more clear on this.

I don’t think I am. If you frame something as saying we’ll eventually “give up” or “lose” or “be on the wrong side of history”, then you’re ultimately encouraging people to stop trying. If people think they will lose in the end, they lose the will to fight. I believe this framing is extremely dangerous. I think it’s exactly why the people @puzzlegal mentioned have stopped with the restrictions.

Even if I replace the word “give up,” your argument was still that those of us who are on the pro-restriction side now will eventually wind up being considered wrong. And I do not agree. We are on the pro-science side, and thus we are free to change our opinion as the data changes. And, as long as we stick with the science, we will not wind up on the wrong side of history.

There are one of two outcomes: (1) We as a society decide to end the restrictions before the science says we are ready. Then we get a new wave, and it’s clear that those of us who stuck with the science were right. (2) We as a society decide to listen to the science, and then there is no wave, and thus those who sided with the science are clearly right.

The thing you are worried about is, in my very strongly held opinion, not something we need to worry about. What I strongly believe is more important is for us avoid spreading the idea to more people that we’ll eventually have to give up. That sort of rhetoric is more likely to result in scenario (1), and we want scenario (2)—or, at least, as close as we can get.

We are in a war against a disease. But a significant part of the battle is taking place in people’s minds. I think it is extremely important that we do not push any sort of rhetoric that we will eventually lose to the virus—regardless of what terminology you use to describe that. “Give up,” “lose,” “wrong side of history,” “we’re all going to get it anyways,” “it will never end”—whatever.

All of that rhetoric is dangerous.

1306

@eschrodinger What did you think the end of the pandemic was when this all started? Mine hasn’t changed.

It means that the point where we can go back to our daily lives without worrying that there will be a new surge. Will it necessarily be clear the exact point it happens? No. But it will happen. We’ll notice that the surge doesn’t happen.

It’s possible we’ll mess up, and a surge will happen? Sure. Then it will not have ended, and we’ll try again. But it will eventually end.

(Note that an outbreak is not a surge, if it is contained.)

Now, do I know exactly how that will look? No. But it will happen. I’ve yet to see any scientist who doesn’t say all pandemics eventually end. I even tried to look it up on Google just now, and all of the talk was about how it would end, not if.

1307

Now that those responses are out of the way, here’s what I actually came in to say:

I’m frustrated by the lack of official guidance in my situation. Here’s the deal: my 62-year-old dad and I live together. We like to meet up with my sister and her roommates for Christmas. We live within 15 minutes of each other by car. We are all vaccinated, and those of us who can be boosted at this point have been.

I do read that the US is not recommending that we avoid gatherings altogether, which is nice. But I’m getting tons of mixed messaging on whether we need to mask up. And most of the talk about masking seems to assume people are flying or meeting with a lot of relatives.

I would have assumed that most gatherings for Christmas were only two or three families who live nearby, as most people can’t afford a long trip anyways. Yet this particular scenario doesn’t seem to be discussed.

Last year, we gathered with masks and kept the room well ventilated. But then, by July 4, we gathered without masks because we were all vaccinated. We’ve also eaten out a couple times together. But all of this was before omicron.

I am currently going to float the idea of everyone taking one of the 4 tests I currently have on hand within 24 hours of the party, but I don’t know how that will go. We plan to eat at this gathering, and so we really couldn’t keep masks on if we wanted to, though we can distance, and it will be warm enough to keep the windows open and fans running to get the circulation going.

It’s been a while since I’ve been scared about my dad. I know we’re both boosted, but still. I wish he wasn’t the “stir crazy” type who feels the need to go out, in an area where most people refuse to mask.

Point is, I wish there was just some official chart with different scenarios, based on location, spread in that location, size and type of gathering, and travel needed. Instead, I’m having to piece everything together from several sources and then make my case.

1308

I think the official guidance is to go ahead with it. Personally, I’m asking my kids to do a rapid test before they come over on Christmas day. I have a stack in the cupboard (which I will drop off at their doorway, since they had trouble buying them, and won’t have their own until Monday) and that’s what they are for.

Rapid tests are less sensitive, so it’s best if the test is done as close as possible to when you are getting together, as viral loads can change over time.

1309

I’ve been following some of the other topics and one thing that kept coming up recently that we should not use Israel as a yardstick for a country with a high vaccination rate - they apparently are at a rate comparable to the United States. (Which begs that someone asks the question - are these rates first dose, fully vaccinated, third dose…?)

And then there’s the question about how well everyone is conforming to other things that might help. Masking, social distancing, limiting travel…

So - what about the countries with high vaccination rates - any updates on how they are doing? Are their results (better or worse) being confounded by other factors?

1310

Portugal has an 89% fully-vaxxed rate has been close to that level since Sept. They’ve had very few covid restrictions and, yet, have had very mild delta surges. Their booster rate is going slowly. They just recently imposed restrictions for right after christmas due to omicron and rising cases.

1311

We get an uncontained surge of flu every year and tens of thousands die. We lived a normal life in spite of that, without restrictions, and developed vaccines and treatments accordingly.
That is the likely end point for covid, a part of life where it is endemic and we live with it.

1312

I find this impressive: when I report a LRT/RAT result, I get sent a confirmatory text and email. Last time, out of idle curiosity, I checked my COVID passport as soon as I got the confirmations: updated to include the latest test result (negative). Cool - so far as I can tell, the passport updates at the same time as the confirmations go out.

Tonight (negative) I timed it - one minute from hitting enter to confirmation and presumably passport update.

Next time I’m going to have to use something which shows seconds.

j

1313

Heh, I’m always impressed when I pay for something with a credit card and get immediate notification on my phone.

1314

This is some sort of acme of pointlessness, but from reporting a negative test result to it appearing on my COVID passport - one minute and fourteen seconds.

I need to get out more.

j

1315

OK, so as I said in another thread, I’m in a situation where I have increased risk of exposure (from being in public indoors near maskless conservatives), though I myself am wearing the vast majority of the time. I will still be in the situation, though for less time, tomorrow.

It looks like there’s a small (like three to five other people, max) NYE party going on on Friday. I know the safest thing for me to do is not to go (although am I being immoral if I do? I wonder…). But if I did, I’d be tested first.

However, if I do, there are certain questions in play. Like, is Wednesday too early for a PCR test? If I do it Thursday, there’s a risk I won’t get my results in time. If I were able to find a rapid test, and took it like an hour before going, does the result have any use whatsoever if it’s negative?

Complicating matters is that the host himself is returning from a cross country trip on Wednesday. I suppose this is how this spreads, which makes for my moral dilemma. Whatever happens, though, I think this current situation is it for my major risk increases (including eating in restaurants) until this is over.

1316

Yes, a rapid test taken immediately before you go is useful. Rapid tests are less sensitive than PCR tests, but they are pretty good at detecting a significant viral load in the nose. And that correlates very highly with being infectious.

If you are using a rapid test this way, you should use it as soon before you arrive as possible, since your viral load can change over time.

If you are sick and want to know if you should be treated for covid, a PCR test is much better, as you might have a lot of virus in places other than the nose, and the rapid test can give you a false negative. But if you are mostly worried about infecting others, a rapid test immediately prior is pretty decent.

1317

So it’s time for more Covid ranting. I have been trying to get my patients vaccinated. I myself have had all three shots. My staff ( 2 people) were cajoled into getting the first two shots fairly easily. I have been trying to get them to take boosters for over 2 months.

Me: you need to be boosted because we need to protect our patients and it is easier to convince them to take the vaccine if I can tell them we are all fully vaccinated. Remember when I told you it was an office requirement?

Employee A: I don’t have time to get the vaccine.

Me: There is a CVS literally across the street where I got my booster. Besides, I will pay you an hour of work time for getting it.

A: You don’t understand. I am busy. I have a child and I need to get ready for the holidays.

Me: Your children also need to be vaccinated. Why don’t you take them with you.

A; But you said it made you tired for a couple of days. I can’t afford to be tired.

Me; (trying to control temper) Yes but it is required to work here.

A: What are you going to do, fire me?

Me: You had no problem with the first two doses.

A: So are you going to pay me if I am too tired to work?

Me: You have sick leave.

A: But I don’t want to use it for that.

Me; (walking away to work on B) and thinking “ how about if I just withhold any year end bonus until you show me proof of the booster”

Me; ( to B) Did you get your booster?

B: No

Me: I thought you made an appointment.

B: It was too far from home so I changed it.

Me: So when are you getting it?

B: I’ll schedule it for after the holidays.

Me: You need it now-you are high risk.

B: I don’t see why they keep changing their minds. Are we going to have to get boosters every couple of months for forever?

Me; Possibly

B: I just don’t trust them. They just want to get money from the vaccines.

Me: pulls out graph and papers showing benefit of booster vaccine.

B: Well I’m not doing anything until the new year.

Me: walks away after realizing I’ve already muttered the word stupid under my breath and trying not. to swear.

Cut to Sunday night

Text from A: I won’t be in tomorrow.

Me: Is everything OK?

A(calls me): I just wanted to let you know that I spent the holiday with my family and my mother, brother, sister and niece are now all sick and have tested positive for Covid.

Me: ( trying again not to say “I bleeping told you so”)
You will have to quarantine for minimum 5-7 days so you are off until after the holidays.I know you texted B already but please make sure B knows she is working alone this whole week. Also, remember how Thursday I asked you to water the plants before you left? Well they are alive because I checked them and did it.

1318

It’s kinda gross you would require them to take sick days for a required booster shot side effects. Are they paid? If not, that’s even more gross.

Just give them the time off if they need it. Paid.

1319

Oh please. Everywhere I worked, “sick leave” is for any health-care related time off, whatever the cause. Not everybody who gets the vaccine gets aftereffects bad enough to prevent showing up for work, it’s perfectly justified to use sick leave for that contingency.

Plus, you seem to fail to notice the employee was offered paid time off to go get the shot. Employee A plain and simply did not want to be arsed to do anything that could change her already-made holiday plans.

1320

I hate to say it but some of my employees would probably take a paid week off for “fatigue” but maybe offering one day extra paid could be a compromise. It is sort of moot since the employee now has COVID ( positive test and mild symptoms).

1321

I would assume that sick days are paid leave in addition to being paid to take the time to get the shot in the first place. Why would you assume they aren’t being paid?

1322

I think the question is whether the employees need to use their “regular” paid sick leave/PTO or get extra paid days for vaccine side effects.

1323

So I’m taking my car in for service tomorrow. I struggled a bit with this decision, but it’s an old car and mildly overdue, so I figured the risk was worth taking. (Nowhere to sit outside, and it’s cold.)

But what got me thinking was this: the dealership is mostly one huge room, with unusually high ceilings on the main floor. How are such buildings normally ventilated? How would it affect something like Covid?

But I will be wearing an N95, maybe with one of those otherwise useless disposable ones. Which brought up a second question for me: if I did that, would it matter which was worn over which?

1324

If it were me, I’d go for a walk. I have a relative who works at a dealership. “All the guys” on the sales floor have gotten COVID.