It’s only happened once, when James A. Garfield won in 1880. Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul are hoping it will happen again, but I wonder if it will… or can. A Congressman (or Congresswoman) is just one out of 435, usually without any particularly high national profile unless he or she is in the House leadership. There’s no such thing as running midterm, as you’d probably be seeking reelection to the House every two years. Most governors and senators can also draw upon a larger base for support and campaign funds.
You’d have to be a pretty hotshit Member of Congress to have any realistic chance of being elected President, I’d say, and those are few and far between.
Dick Gephardt comes to mind as the most recent one to come closest, and even then he didn’t come very close.
BTW, the term “Congressman” refers to members of both houses of Congress, so you really have to specify: Member of the House of Representatives to be clear. I could tell by the context that you were excluding Senators.
I agree, though. Highly unlikely. Usually they hop over to the Senate before they try, and it’s hard enough to make it even from there. This time might well be an exception.
With the right platform to ride, sure. Get a charismatic Congresscritter with a cause that gets them lots of positive press and they’d get the dollars needed for a successful campaign.
Seems fairly rare, at least recently, for anyone with a political job to be elected. (I don’t think I count being Vice-President as having a job.) I wonder what it says about our system that in order to be elected, you have to be unemployed?
Southern governors seem to have done well recently. Perhaps the problem is that campaigning is such a full-time job that it’s hard for a sitting congressman or senator to get elected.
Congresspeople are at a disadvantage because, first, they vote on so much stuff, it’s easy for their opponents to find something to smear them on, and second, because they’re members of a large group, it’s not easy as it is for governors for them to take credit for good stuff. A governor can say, “When I was governor, my anti-crime initiative made the streets safer” or something like that, while a Senator or House member can only say, “I sponsored this crime bill” or “I voted for that crime bill”. They have to share the credit.
Seems to me the only Representatives high-profile enough to make the jump would be the Speaker and the Majority/Minority leaders. The biggest problem is that a Representative has to sit for election every two years and thus risks losing his district while trying for the big score (I’m pretty sure you can’t run for Representative and President at the same time). Since Senators have six-year terms, they can safely campaign for president half the time without putting their Senate seats at risk. Thus, for example, Hillary Clinton can make a bid in 2008, spend 2012 convincing New Yorkers to return her, then make another bid in 2016, get returned in 2018, go for the Presidency again in 2020, work to keep her Senate seat in 2024, try for the White House in 2028, etc. I’ve no doubt she and every other serious candidate have mapped out their political careers decades in advance. Since Federal elections rather grossly favour the incumbent, I can see why risks have to be carefully weighed. Make a bid for President and lose, and you might lose everything.
I have to argue with this. I’ve never heard a Senator referred to as a Congressman before. Senators and Representatives may both be considered Members of Congress. But the term “Congressman” is used only with members of the House.
And Carter and Reagan were former governors. Bush the Elder came to the White House directly from the Vice Presidency, the first to do so since Martin Van Buren in 1836. Gore (almost) did it again in 2000.
Since 1932:
FDR: Gov. of NY when elected President.
Truman: Senator when elected VP.
Eisenhower: no previous elected office; war hero.
JFK: Senator.
LBJ: Senator when elected VP.
Nixon: former VP (eight years out of office).
Ford: House minority leader when appointed VP under 25th Amendment.
Carter: former Gov. of Ga.
Reagan: former Gov. of Calif.
Bush I: sitting VP.
Clinton: Gov. of Arkansas.
Bush II: Gov. of Texas.
