I would say “no”. Hitler and the Nazi Party rose due to an unfortunate confluence of events-Germany’s defeat in WWI, the hyperinflation of the 1920s, and the rise of Communist Russia. Plus, Europe is an ageing continent-people are having fewer children, and war is not popular. There will always be extreme right wing parties, but I cannot see a guy like Hitler coming back-the premise is too extreme. At any rate, could there ever be a major war in Europe again?
Vladimir Putin seems determined to make a go of it. How far will he get? I guess we’ll all find out.
I also thought Putin the second I read your question.
He’s not a rational actor at all. I think he could easily start a war.
Patently the answer is yes, since one just like Hitler who was named Hitler and who was European and a dictator did in fact emerge in the past. If you are asking if one could emerge in the future then that’s a different question.
Well, as others have said, there is Putin, who is certainly in Europe and is arguably a dictator. Could it happen in any Western European country? Yeah, I think it COULD happen, though whether they were JUST ‘Like Hitler’ is another matter. But there has been a lot of economic instability in Europe lately, and I could see a right wing (or left wing) populist party getting a foot hold and emerging behind a popular personality and becoming in effect a dictator a la Putin or something along those lines.
Let’s hope not, since they generally drag the entire world into their squabbles, including us. COULD it happen? Well, I think as long as the EU is working and NATO is in force it couldn’t happen, no, especially as long as the US is still strong. If the EU collapses, NATO disbands and the US sinks back into obscurity? Sure…could happen. There is still quite a bit of pan European hostility, grudges and factions/cross purposes that it COULD happen again in the future if they don’t keep it together. As things stand today, no…I don’t see it. Unless you want to count Russia as being in Europe, in which case there is a non-zero chance that they might do something stupid and provoke a brief conflict with NATO and the west. THAT could happen, though I don’t think there is a very high chance of it.
This explains Hitler but doesn’t explain Mussolini, Franco, Stalin(if we count the USSR as European) and plenty of other dictatorships in Europe.
Apart from recent economic troubles things have gone better than could ever have been expected in most of Europe since the mid 20th century. Is this sustainable? My guess(and it’s no more than a guess) is probably no.
The OP is asking 2 completely separate questions. One needn’t have a Hitler in order to start a major war in Europe. In fact, one needn’t have a dictator, although that helps.
If Hitler were about age 24 and in Greece right now, what would be substantially different? Dysfunctional government. High national debt. Broken economy. Belief in historic greatness and that these problems are the result of external actions by other nations.
Also, I understand that nothing bad ever happened in the area formerly called Yugoslavia. There was no conflict or genocide there twenty years ago.
Likewise, there are no territorial disputes going on anywhere in Europe right now. Certainly not between Russia and Ukraine, who have never accused the other of committing genocide by famine in the past.
Yeah… it’s all been roses since Hitler. Couldn’t possibly happen again. Not more than once or twice, at least.
[Quote=XT]
Well, as others have said, there is Putin, who is certainly in Europe and is arguably a dictator. Could it happen in any Western European country? Yeah, I think it COULD happen, though whether they were JUST ‘Like Hitler’ is another matter. But there has been a lot of economic instability in Europe lately, and I could see a right wing (or left wing) populist party getting a foot hold and emerging behind a popular personality and becoming in effect a dictator a la Putin or something along those lines.
[/quote]
I think there’s a key difference between right- and left-wing movements of today versus the 30’s. They’re less about grandiose vision, more about pocketbook issues.
Right-winger in 1930: Send these Jews to the gas chambers! Then we shall fulfill our racial destiny and inaugurate the thousand-year Reich!
Right-winger in 2015: Send these immigrants back to Pakistan! Then we’ll spend less on welfare for them, so we can spend more on welfare for ourselves!
Left-winger in 1930: Join us as we rise up to slaughter the bourgeoisie and begin the glorious revolution!
Left-winger in 2015: Join us as we rise up to demand lower interest rates and to not raise the retirement age!
It’s just not quite the same.
I could certainly see a country in the position of Greece falling under the sway of a dictator; but as others have pointed out, thats only half the OP’s question - Greece is too minor of a nation to spark a major war in Europe. The wars in the former Yugoslavia were sparked by the breakup of that nation, but are there any other other states in Europe where things are being held together by such a fragile thread?
While this is true of many current movement, the whole mess in former Yugoslavia was much closer to your 1930 statements than the 2015 statements. That was only 20 years ago. Those sentiments exist in the population (some populations, anyway) even if they’re not currently the foundation of a party.
Also keep in mind that the Nazis were always anti-Semitic, but they didn’t run on a platform of gas chambers. Mostly they ran on a strong economy/strong military/national pride platform. That platform would still get you traction in many places. (It’s working for Trump. :smack: )
There certainly weren’t any ultra-nationalists fomenting centuries old ethnic disagreements as a route to gain power involved in those conflicts that didn’t happen.
…and there’s not a couple decades of military friction along a border where the issues haven’t been resolved (because the alliance they are both in only cares that the issues don’t get too big.) One of the countries involved is not Greece mired in economic crisis. The other is not Turkey who’s seen small steps back from Ataturk’s vision of a more secular, European style, government at the same time they have been exerting more regional power.
ROUSs, European dictators, and European wars… I don’t think they exist.
[QUOTE=ITR champion]
I think there’s a key difference between right- and left-wing movements of today versus the 30’s. They’re less about grandiose vision, more about pocketbook issues.
[/QUOTE]
Which is why I said that it being JUST like Hitler (or Stalin) is another matter. Certainly there are differences today, so a dictator coming from either the left or the right would be different than one that came about in Europe in the '30’s. But I think it’s possible that you could get a dictator in Europe (Greece for instance, as just one example) in the right circumstances. And the current economic difficulties are putting a number of countries under strain.
He’s entirely rational in terms of the internal distribution of forces in Russia. The only question is whether he and his counterparts elsewhere miscalculate in handling each other and end up letting tense and disputed situations get out of hand. Not Hitler - more likely somewhere between the Austrian and Russian General Staffs in 1914.
The General staffs of 1914 though that a war was winnable (and it was albeit at astronomical cost). A war between Russia and America is not winnable for either side, and no maximum potential gain could be enough to justify even best case senario of losses. Everybody knows that.
As to the OP, well the current situation in Europe is one where you can see fringe and dangerous ideologies take hold. It is as true in 2015 as it was in 1935 or indeed 515.
Its easy to be a democrat in good times. Its when things go pear shaped is when you see whether democratic ideals have taken hold and beyond that are the institutions strong enough to continue. In Europe it seems, the answer is… maybe.
The US system has about 7084 things wrong with it, but to its credit the institutions setup in 1789 have managed to work despite some very very monumental challenges.
No. As I see it, two fundamental things have changed since then.
For one: We have a globalized economy. Countries very much depend on each other economically. If a country really decided to go down the same path that the third reich did, it would become a pariah state. I’m not saying that a pariah state could not pose some danger but it would be more along the dimensions of North Korea, never with the capacity of making a serious push for dominance over the continent.
For another: There has been a Hitler. It has not been forgotten.
NB: Putin is not Hitler. He is not giving us much reason to like him, but comparing him to that mad mass murderer is a tad unfair.
Well, this gets into the argument of a new dictator in Europe having to be just like Hitler. I agree…one just like him or even close isn’t going to happen. But a dictator, full stop? Yeah, that could happen. And yeah, Putin is kind of one right now in Europe…or, if not, he’s damned close to being one and has the potential to be down the road. He doesn’t have to be JUST like Hitler and a mass murderer to simply be a dictator in Europe. Nor does being a dictator have to threaten all of Europe with war, though they could certainly destabilize things (not that they are all that stable atm anyway).
If you are looking for a dictator in Europe, the prime candidate would probably be Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. The government in Russia clearly is showing authoritarian traits, but not yet enough to be called a dictatorship in my opinion. I do, however, agree with the “potential to be one down the road”.
Hella yes.
Evil is always in season.
Hitler rose to absolute power because he had a home-grown army of a million guys behind him.
I don’t see anybody being able to accomplish anything similar anytime soon.
Well, you know what they say…arose by any other name smells as sweet! I don’t think you would need the exact circumstances that brought Hitler (or any of the other European dictators in the past) to power to get a modern dictator in Europe. After all, most of them came to power in different ways and did different things once there. Not all of them were just like Hitler, so thinking that this is the only path for a future dictator is kind of limiting and short sighted.