Here’s another hypothetical, because we haven’t had enough election hypotheticals yet :D. Let’s say Clinton wins and the senate ends up 51/49 in favor of the Republicans. I figure this is a somewhat likely scenario, not too outlandish. I assume that a majority leader McConnell will continue his obstructing ways, and refuse to consider any SCOTUS nominees and maybe even cabinet nominees. Under such a scenario, can you all think of any Republican senators that would change parties? At that point it would only take one senator to flip the senate, and it would mean the difference between a semi functional government and a non functional one. Who would be a good candidate to approach for switching? Jeff Flake of Arizona comes to mind. Any other thoughts, or is the scenario to outlandish to consider?
I am strangely fascinated with a bunch of weird scenarios in the senate race so I read up on some the candidates tonight.
The likely winner will be John Neely Kennedy. Before August 27, 2007 he was a Democrat. I don’t know why he switched, but it wasn’t that long ago so I don’t think it’s impossible that he could switch back.
That’s pretty much exactly what happened in 2001, when Jim Jeffords of Vermont switched from Republican to Independent and caucused with the Democrats, giving them 51 votes and control of the Senate when previously it had been 50-50 with Dick Cheney casting the tiebreaking vote.
So there’s recent historical precedent for it.
Should have been…
… weird scenarios in the Louisiana senate race…
He’s from Louisiana. Louisiana is one of those Southern states that still has some blue dog Democrats on the state level. Most likely he was one of those blue dog Democrats who finally switched parties. I’m not familiar with his particular positions, just speculating on his likely reason for that particular history.
I don’t see Louisiana flipping since at this point it would be political suicide due to the deepening polarization, just within the past 10 years. I don’t know how popular the Senators are from Maine, North Carolina, and Colorado, but it’s possible that, having been elected in 2014 and thus up for re-election in a Presidential year, they might see the writing on the wall due to the continuing demographic shift and switch to avoid losing in 2020.
In this scenario, I think Sen. Murkowski and/or Sen. Collins would be most likely to flip from R to D or independent.
NOOOOOO!!! Since I want Collins to run for Prez in 2020 (actually I wanted her to run this year).
You know, they don’t actually have to change parties. They can just vote whatever way they want. It’s allowed.
Used to actually happen, they tell me. Back in the dawn of time.
ETA if you mean majority leader, sure, but voting doesn’t have to follow party lines
My recollection is that it turned out to be rather personally negative for him overall, though. Initially treated like a king for a couple of big votes, then shuffled offstage to languish as a backbencher whom nobody trusted.
Arlen Specter changed from R to D in 2009 (and lost reelection in 2010.)
Joe Lieberman switch from D to Independent in 2006 and became John McCain’s good buddy.
Maybe I’m just an optimist, but I keep thinking with this many congressmen, committing righteous political suicide should be more common.
But the point is that the controlling party of the Senate gets a lot of power beyond just 51 of 100 votes. They control committee chairmanships and ultimately what bills come up to a vote.
It’s like the swing vote in the tribe on Survivor. Seems like the ones that switch alliances, never make it to the end.
One of the most likely possibilities I see for a switch, if he pulls off a win after his late race collapse, is actually from D to R - Evan Bayh (IN).
He’s already remarkably centrist. During his two previous terms in the Senate he was part of the bipartisan Senate Centrist Committee, helped establish the New Democrat Coalition, and was part of founding the Moderate Dems Working Group (effectively the Senate version of the Blue Dog Coalition in the Senate.)
Since he’s in a red leaning state not having a D after his name could actually help him in the next general election …if he doesn’t retire again. He’d have to balance that against a potentially harder primary fight though.
One who switched and made it stick was Wayne Morse. Elected and reelected as a Republican, he became first an independent, then a Democrat and started the movement that turned Oregon into the deep blue state it is today.
But in general, pols who switch parties end up mistrusted by both sides. I saw it happen here in Canada too. I can’t recall her name, but she was a hero for a few weeks and ended up on the scrap heap.