Who knows? There’s got to be so much going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about. Maybe in 50 years the history books will start telling us what’s actually going on right now, but I doubt it.
Nobody’s ever failed once they’ve had the fissionable material. Lots of folks have failed to get to that stage.
And the point of nuclear weapons is that they’re a deterrent against anyone else attacking you. But that only works if your enemies believe you have them. If Iran had believed that Israel had nukes, they wouldn’t have attacked.
I don’t think game theory supports that.
So if Israel did develop nukes, why? What benefit are they gaining from these nukes they supposedly have?
I think they were developed at a time when the worry was a land war with Egypt. The current situation of small missile attacks doesn’t rise to the threat where destroying Tehran and risking WWIII is worth it.
Last chance desperation.
Israeil doesn’t use its nukes because it has always known that America would not let them and that America would protect them. Whether they still believe that is uncertain. Nevertheless, no sane nation wants to be the first to use nukes. As long as Arab nations believe they exist, they work.
BTW, The Arms Control Association says that Israel has 90. I believe them.
IMO the Israeli nukes are in effect a suicide pact with their potential enemies. Mere pinpricks like the Iranian missiles don’t call for a nuclear response.
But if the Israeli government ever felt like it was about to lose the country, they’d thoroughly incinerate the attaker(s). Likewise if somehow the government was wiped out in some very effective sneak attack. In common with other nuclear nations, they almost certainly have so-called Dead Hand procedures to ensure there’d be a comprehensive retaliation even after there’s no government for those retaliatory forces to answer to.
Relative to the entire list of countries that have (or had) serious enmity towards Israel, they have a LOT of overkill.
So much for hardware. Moving on to politics.
I do not believe for a moment that the US government controls Israel. Nor do I believe vice versa. But both parties work to influence one another and they often face common or similar threats even if they don’t have a common policy to address those threats.
To the degree that Israel and the US are making common cause today over problem X, Israel can have more confidence in non-nuclear but still acceptable solutions to problem X. If / when the US and Israel find themselves totally at odds over their respective approaches to problem Y, we’ll also find the threshold to independent Israeli nuclear action is much reduced.
Said another way, the US can be a huge force multiplier for Israel. It doesn’t have to always be so, but it often is. So any game theory discussion of responses needs to be aware of whether the 800 lb gorilla is in the room and paying attention.
You are talking about MAD. According to a documentary I saw, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost if you keep it a secret.
[NB if only the government were wiped out in a very effective sneak attack, like in Iran… well, the surviving forces there did not burn the rest of their country and its population by igniting WW3…]
Ask @China_Guy . In the past, he’s expressed the view that Taiwan already has secretly acquired nukes.
They had a secret program for a couple of decades then the official account is that they disbanded it under pressure from the US.
China has said that Taiwan possessing nuclear weapons is a red line and will not permit that.
It’s certainly recognized that Taiwan has the capability, and then it’s just a question of they have finished the development and assembled some or not.
Russia is currently getting bombed daily and they aren’t nuking Ukraine. Iran destroyed multiple US bases and we aren’t nuking Iran.
The idea that getting attacked proves that you don’t have nukes is utterly without merit.
Realistically, I don’t see any situation where a nuclear first strike by anyone doesn’t result in total global nuclear war. Israel strikes Iran, so Iran’s allies in Russia strike Israel, then the US strikes Russia and that’s all she wrote.
The purpose of having them is so that you don’t need to use them. Note how much the world tiptoes around North Korea these days.