I see expecting eased relations with the U.S. to make a change in Cuba’s internal politics as some sort of American exceptionalism. Most of the rest of the world’s nations have had no embargo against Cuba, and that hasn’t made any difference.
I agree that the current government is on life support, but I don’t see that the U.S. is going to have anything to do with changing that. It will be the Cubans that do it.
The difference will be that the US is a huge market for Cuba (as we are for basically everyone else who trades on the planet). Tourism alone will go up by a huge amount when relations completely normalize and when American tourists start going in real numbers, and American companies start buying and selling products in real numbers. IIRC, Cuba has something like a $2 billion market in tourism, and maybe double that in other trade. That could all double or even triple once relations with the US normalize.
It’s not American exceptional-ism to state that the US is a huge market, the largest single economy in the world, and that normal relations with the US will fundamentally change Cuba. Guess we shall see, though. If we ever fully normalize relations and Cuba stays the same then it won’t have made a difference. I’ll be shocked if that happens.
I’d call the EU effectively a “single market” when it comes to trade. Wouldn’t you?
Not really…they are still individual countries that are in a trade union. There is a broad agreement for trade between the EU and Cuba, but not all countries (or most it looks like) either import or export a lot with Cuba (Spain looks like the biggest single EU member that trades with Cuba). Also, Europe isn’t right next door to Cuba, last time I checked, so Cuba’s natural market is going to be the US. The only reason it wasn’t is because of the embargo and all the bad blood.
It looks to me as if Canada alone has nearly as much trade with Cuba as the EU does (`17% verse 22%). China is the second larges single trade partner at 16% (the US, even with the embargo going, is still 4%…I expect that number to skyrocket if relations are fully normalized).
So, demographically, nothing in So.Fla. really changed . . .
What’s to say the US is going to buy more goods from Cuba than the EU does? Especially since Congress isn’t going to ease all the trade sanctions.
It’s not just a trade union. The EU also has a common external tariff, so it makes no difference whether Spain is trading with Cuba or Ireland is; the goods in question can go anywhere in the EU at that point. You might as well say that the US won’t be a good trade partner because most Cuban imports will be to Florida.
Damn, you beat me to a follow-up post with the same idea and same state. Anyway, good point. But we still have to remember that we are not “opening up” trade with Cuba yet. We’re opening up diplomatic relations and easing some restrictions that the president can do by himself. Obama cannot ease all the trade sanctions, though. Only Congress can do that.
No one. I’m simply saying that IF relations completely normalize then the US would naturally become one of Cuba’s main trading partners. We already account for a sizable percentage of their export trade and that’s WITH the embargo.
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It’s not just a trade union. The EU also has a common external tariff, so it makes no difference whether Spain is trading with Cuba or Ireland is; the goods in question can go anywhere in the EU at that point. You might as well say that the US won’t be a good trade partner because most Cuban imports will be to Florida.
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True, but I’m guessing that most of the goods imported into Spain go to Spanish markets. If that’s not the case then it’s still not a big percentage of Cuba’s trade coming from the EU…like I said, Canada alone is nearly as much (so is China).
Good point about Florida…I hadn’t thought of the EU in those terms even though intellectually I know how it works.
Spain is Europe’s largest sugar refiner, and raw sugar is Cuba’s largest export. Having sided with John, I’m going to agree with your larger point: selling to the US will be a bonanza for Cuba. Not just because we’re a big market, but because we’re a big convenient market. Shipping goods doesn’t cost much these days, but it certainly affects costs.
Yeah, once I thought about it in terms of your Florida example I figured sugar would be the big product. Spain imports it, refines it, then exports it to EU members in various products or just as refined sugar. Same as in the US importing oil or whatever, then distributing it to the various states.
Except for the Fanjul brothers-they own the US sugar production, and donate generously to both parties…to keep sugar tariffs high.
I’m pretty sure most of that is me. True fact: the world’s largest consumers of Havana Club Anejo Reserva are Spain, the United Kingdom, and wolfpup’s liver. And at least one of the three is NOT looking forward to American demand driving up prices, not to mention the cigar situation. Marco Rubio 2016! 
I never said selling to the US wouldn’t be a bonanza to Cuba. I just don’t think that the US is going to end up accounting for such a dominant part of Cuban exports that our influence of that country will overshadow the influence other countries already had in the past (if such influence can be effective in forcing change). Not everything in the world depends on the US, not should it.
Well, I never said that either, but let me ask you something…do you seriously think that, if the US opens trade up with Cuba we won’t have a similar percentage as Canada or the EU?? We don’t like imported cigars or rum in the US?? And Cuban’s could find anything on the list of US exports they might want to buy?
And, sorry to say this to you, but the world DOES depend on the US for trade. If the US disappeared tomorrow the worlds economy would fold. Just like if Japan were to vanish tomorrow, or the UK, or France or China (or South Korea or Germany or several other key countries). And the US has a huge amount of soft power type influence…and opening up to Cuba would bring that soft power to bear in a way it isn’t today in Cuba. Just like what’s happening in China and Vietnam (but, interestingly enough, not really Russia). Assuming relations with the US actually do fully normalize it’s not going to just be business as usual in Cuba in the medium or long term, IMHO anyway. Guess we shall see.
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I’m pretty sure most of that is me. True fact: the world’s largest consumers of Havana Club Anejo Reserva are Spain, the United Kingdom, and wolfpup’s liver. And at least one of the three is NOT looking forward to American demand driving up prices, not to mention the cigar situation. Marco Rubio 2016!
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You know, wishing someone like Marco Rubio on this poor, defenseless nation is tantamount to war! Once relations with Cuba are fully normalized I’ll make it my mission to buy up all the fine Cuban cigars and rum I can get my hand on to counter act your own purchases! 
We will probably between us add a percentage point or two to the Cuba economy.
Maybe Americans will buy up Rum, maybe Sugar, maybe even fish or whatever else Cuba produces; but the latter might not shift that many cigars. America is the world leader in anti-smoking fanaticism, and tobacco could become illegal sometime.
Not the ideal time to break into the market. Cigars are just as much instruments of the Devil as Cigarettes or that weird chewing tobacco they started producing a decade or so ago. Which was instantly demonized as much as the Castros.