But why, in your scenario, does Moscow fall? Who did what differently? The answer to your question depends on this, IMO.
They all have capitols. The real difference is they were not the national capital.
If the Germans took Moscow and then controlled the area between Moscow and Germany, wouldn’t Stalin and the millions of armed and trained soviet soldiers still want to fight Germany? I would think if Moscow fell, the Soviets would simply set up base somewhere else and continue the battle with the Germans. In this case, perhaps Germany (with a Moscow victory) would be unable to reinforce the western front because the eastern German army would still be bogged down in non-stop unorganized guerrilla fighting with the remnants of the Soviet army getting constant reinforcements from further east. Either that or non-stop organized fighting Soviets with non-stop reinforcements from the east (with a working government somewhere east of Moscow).
I’d like to piggyback a similar question:
If Nazi Germany never attacked/kept relative peace status with the USSR, and focused on Europe and N. Africa exclusively, what would a likely outcome have been? If the US still gets the bomb in 45, would we have used it on occupied cities in France (and perhaps even an overrun England)? I assume bombing runs into Germany proper wouldn’t be as likely with Nazi Germany occupying all of Europe.
It’s a very unlikely scenario. The whole point of the war was conquering Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union; Hitler just attacked west first to secure his flank before starting what he saw as the real war.
But I suppose if somehow Germany and the Soviet Union had managed to keep the peace between them and not get the United States involved, then eventually Britain would have given up. A direct conquest probably wouldn’t have happened but if the war continued long enough without any victory on the horizon then eventually Chruchill would have been forced out of office and replaced by somebody like Halifax that would have negotiated an end to the war. Britain would have kept its overseas empire and ceded control of mainland Europe to Germany.
If the United States had entered the war after Europe, including the British Isles and the Soviet Union, was conquered it still could have attacked Germany without a European base (albeit with a lot more difficulty). B-29’s, which the United States started building in 1942, had a range of over 3200 miles - they could fly missions across the Atlantic and still drop bombs in Germany. And the Americans could have island-hopped across the Atlantic like they did the Pacific - capturing island bases in Bermuda, the Cape Verdes, the Canarys, the Madieras, the Azores, the Faroes, Iceland and then invading the British Isles, Iberia, or Scandinavia and eventually continental Europe.
The soviet union was never homogenous, there is russia proper and then there are the stans. If stalin survives the fall of moscow , ie sets up shop somewhere else , i still have doubts that he would not sue for an armistice, if he can get Germany to pull back to the polish border.
Hitler is not a rational actor ,so its hard to say if he would go for that. But what most people dont get about him is that he was a political , not a military strategist. The only thing keeping Britain in the war up to 1941 was Churchill,hoping on a wing and a prayer that the Americans would enter sooner or later. The idea of Britain bowing out was not without merit in quite a few quarters.
The allies needed the Soviet Union to take the brunt of the war for the first few years , to give the Americans time to build up and attack from the west. No Britain, no springboard to Europe for an opposed landing.
Declan
It was actually a race to see who would get the first blow in, hitler got it with Barbarossa, but if you notice the video footage of the luftwaffe strafing soviet airfields , you might want to question why exactly did stalin have that many airplanes so forward based.
Declan
If you’re suggesting that the Soviets were planning an imminent attack, the evidence says no. Soviet forces were up on the border but it was for a frontal defense not an attack. Soviet forces were spread out all along the border; if they had been preparing for an offense they would be grouped up at the planned attack points (like the Axis forces were).
I’ll read up on Barbarossa again, the last thing I want to be doing is spouting something that is flat out wrong.
Declan
In Russia’s War the author goes into great detail about how Stalin was genuinely surprised Hitler attacked. Despite repeated covert channels telling Stalin Hitler would attack (Hitler just stopped short of calling Stalin himself and telling him he would attack, there was pretty much zero secrecy), Stalin thought the non-aggression pact would last.
A few years down the road, maybe. Probably not, but maybe. Definitely not in 1941 though.
The Soviets could’ve easily retreated to past the Urals. The Germans were overstretched to Moscow.
The real problem was two fold. First of all the Germans were horrible to the people the conquered as they advanced toward Moscow and Lenningrad.
The second problem was the Germans were in no real shape to exploit their victory (if Moscow was taken) because they were already stretched.
Even if the USSR surrendered, Great Britian would’ve delivered Germany a stalemate.
The Germans seemed to be of the thought, work everyone to death and when they are gone, replace them with Germans, well there weren’t so many Germans to go around.
Already Hitler couldn’t control Franco, and Mussolini would’ve been less happy because he was viewed less and less as Hitler’s partner but as his puppet.
So if Moscow fell, you’d most likely see Leningrad fall, because the resistance wouldn’t have been as fierce. So what? The Germans would need years to develop what they took and in the meantime they’d be harassed by the UK and whatever part of the Soviets were behind the Urals.
In the end WWII was won by lend-lease of the USA to the UK and USSR. Without that you’d have had probably five more years of war if not longer for the Soviets and Britian to wear the Germans down. Or a stalemate.
This is exactly what Japan wanted, they wanted to overstrech their conquests and then when the Allies got tired they figured they could just swap a lot of what they took and didn’t want for what they took and wanted.