The news reports state that terrorists could use smallpox as a biological weapon, but the only stocks of smallpox that I know of are in Atlanta and Moscow. Does any other county have smallpox in storage? I did Google this first.
You’re right. Probably the story was premised on the possibility that a cash strapped Russian scientist might sell said Russian smallpox stash to somebody who would then unleash it on an unprepared world. For a more balanced post I’d also presume the possibility exists for a cash hungry American scientist to do the same thing.
There was debate a few years ago about whether or not the Russians and Americans should destroy their last remaining samples of the virus. Ultimately, neither side did. Presumably, I don’t think either side trusted the other side to follow through.
TIME magazine reported that Russia, Iraq and North Korea are believed to have experimented with the virus and may have stock piles of it.
It also reported the Russians (as well as the Americans) have tried genetically altering the viruses and bacterias(is that right?) to make it resistant.
Kim Jong-Il and Saddam have smallpox? That makes me feel better.
Well, if they actually had smallpox, as in suffering from it, maybe it would make some people feel better.
The idea they may have smallpox in little vials in a deep freeze somewhere – :eek: now that’s a nasty thought.
Well…the american and russian samples are the only ones which were officially registered and weren’t destroyed. But nothing could actually prevent any nation to have kept samples (everybody used to have them, for obvious reasons)unoficcially. You’ve to rely on their good faith.
I was profoundly disturbed that Tommy Thompson, Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services, mentioned on the news today that there was some possibility of smallpox being used as a biological weapon. I mean, if he is worried about it…I was always taught in science classes that there were only a handful of samples left, and that no one untoward could get ahold of them. They stopped vacinating for it before I was born, so his remarks strike me as more than a little scary. Does his mentioning it ammount to an admitance that this is a real possiblity?
From this 1999 consensus statement from JAMA:
Dr. J
I’d just like to take a chance to say: I told you so. Nyah, nyah, nyah. (Somehow, this isn’t making me feel any better.)
A year ago, when I brought up this very question (I’d read a newspaper article saying that certain countries in the middle east were vaccinating their militaries and civilians against smallpox- and why would they need to do so if smallpox was safely contained?) you people told me I was being paranoid. Maybe I am paranoid, but now you have to agree my paranoia is justified.
I was one of the last kids to get the smallpox vaccine, but who knows if it’ll protect me now? My children certainly aren’t protected, and we don’t have enough vaccine at present to safeguard the general public.
Anthrax and bubonic plague are at least curable with antibiotics, though a massive outbreak of either would deplete the supply of antibiotics more quickly than they could be manufactured. Smallpox is a virus and though it isn’t always deadly (unless those folks who’ve been playing with it have developed a particularly virulent and deadly strain- and we should assume they have) a widescale outbreak of smallpox would do to us exactly what it did to the Native Americans.
“May you live in interesting times.”
10 years is about it for a smallpox vaccine.
Where in the world did those middle east countries get the vaccine to vaccinate their troops. Making the vaccine would require them to have the smallpox right?
Smallpox mortality has been listed from 40-75 percent. That leaves a LOT of margin of error. But it was very common.
Furthermore it is highly contagious.
But biological warfare has the effect of no onw knows what will happen. Smallpox released could turn right around and spread and kill all the Muslims who live in worse heath conditions and aren’t as likely to have strong immune systems to begin with.
Look at AIDS basically a gay disease here and a heterosexual disease in Africa. Know onw knows how a virus or bacterium will effect a whole population.
Smallpox requires recklessness to use and most experts I have read seem to think that even Saddam Hussein isn’t that reckless to unleash any smallpox he has.
With today’s transportation, you let smallpox out, it’s very likely to bounce back to you.
Nope. According to the Centers for Disease Control, the the vaccine against the smallpox virus (variola) is made from the vaccinia virus.
For more than you want to know about smallpox, its past use and potential future use as a bioweapon, its effects, vaccination protection (or probable lack thereof after 10 years), treatment (basically, the lack thereof) – interesting reading and truly depressing photos are available at the CDC website.
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/Agent/Smallpox/SmallpoxConsensus.pdf
Pretty much confirms your worst-case scenario.
“A clandestine aerosol release of smallpox, even if it infected only 50-100 persons to produce the first generation of cases, would rapidly spread in a now highly susceptible population, expanding by a factor of 10 to 20 times or more with each generation of cases.”