For some unclear reason, covid infections have been sharply declining all over the world. I’ve seen any number of articles about it - one random example from the Atlantic here.
There have been any number of explanations offered (mostly discussed in the Atlantic article). None of them seem to hold much water. The notion that of late people all over the world have suddenly begun doing more social distancing seems ridiculous and at odds with observable reality. And it seems a bit early for a seasonal effect to take hold. The combination of the third and fourth suggestions may have something to it - the result of more and more people having either been infected already or vaccinated means fewer potential victims floating about - but it doesn’t seem to account for that level of decline.
I’ve mentioned in the past my own community, whose pattern may be instructive. We were hit very hard early on (March-April of 2020), but then the infections went down to virtually zero which lasted for months despite minimal social distancing. In about late August we had a spike which lasted about a month, followed by a sharp decline (not virtually zero as in late Spring and early Summer, but about 15% of the level at the height of the second-wave spike). Since then, the level has been slowly but steadily increasing, and now we’re close to where we were in the Autumn spike - we don’t seem to have benefited from the worldwide decline yet. [Of note, there were a lot of deaths last Spring, but relatively few subsequently despite quite a lot of infections.]
The point as I see it is that there’s a lot we don’t understand about the nature of the way the infections spread on a communal level and it’s hard to pin down anything specific as being the one true answer. Or to predict future patterns either.
That said, the bottom line is that things are currently looking better and if the pattern holds long enough for the vast majority to get vaccinated, then the world could finally get over this.