Crane Collapse In Mecca, Scores Dead

[CairoCarol]

@SeniorCitizen007

A crane is going to collapse onto the roof of the Grand Mosque at Mecca sometime during a twelve month period. The odds of it happening within 5 mins of the anniversiary of the exact time the north tower fell are over 5,000-1

I’m curious to know what logic and mathematical calculations you applied to determine that “over 5000-1” figure.

[Broomstick]

@marshmallow

Wind can’t bend steel beams.

Clearly you have never seen the aftermath of a major tornado.

[don_t_ask]

I’d go for 1 chance in 52,560 as there are that many 10 minute periods in 365 days. Ten minutes allows 5 minutes either side of the target time

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

@don_t_ask

I’d go for 1 chance in 52,560 as there are that many 10 minute periods in 365 days. Ten minutes allows 5 minutes either side of the target time

It is not possible to make a credible statistical estimate of probability of the type and shape of a distribution from the observation of a singular event. And unless the construction project has been stalled, the crane has probably not been in place for a twevle month period, nor are climate conditions such that high winds and storms in the Hejaz region occur with equal frequency distributed across the seasons. One might with equal substance claim that this tragedy is a hubristic result of climate change stemming from the Saudi profiteering in the production and sale of petroleum.

Stranger

[PastTense]

Was this accident avoidable? I assume they have weather forecasting available in Saudi Arabia. Aren’t there techniques you use in high wind conditions?

[Little_Nemo]

@Broomstick

Perhaps Allah is displeased with the recent conduct of some segment of the Muslim population…?

But is Allah mad at the Muslims who are using violent means to establish an Islamic state or is he mad at the Muslims who are resisting the establishment of an Islamic state? As always, it’s hard to read the divine message behind an act of destruction. Usually the best thing to do is play it safe and blame it on the gays.

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

Well, He is a [POST=8449516]petty, unjust, unforgiving control-freak; a vindictive, bloodthirsty ethnic cleanser; a mysogynistic, homophobic, racist, infanticidal, genocidal, filicidal, pestilential, megalomanical, sadomasochistic, capriciously malevolent bully[/POST]. They can be quite unpredictable and inscruitable.

Stranger

[Tom_Tildrum]

@marshmallow

Wind can’t bend steel beams.

Nicely done.

[voltaire]

@PastTense

Was this accident avoidable? I assume they have weather forecasting available in Saudi Arabia. Aren’t there techniques you use in high wind conditions?

I think the usual procedure is to allow those cranes to turn with the wind like giant weathervanes. Maybe someone neglected to do that.

[Staggerlee]

I’ve heard that if you watch the video, it’s clearly a controlled demolition. And the ‘wind’ was holographic.

[Penfeather]

@Broomstick

Clearly you have never seen the aftermath of a major tornado.

Apparently they make a really big whooshing noise.

[Czarcasm]

@SeniorCitizen007

A crane is going to collapse onto the roof of the Grand Mosque at Mecca sometime during a twelve month period. The odds of it happening within 5 mins of the anniversiary of the exact time the north tower fell are over 5,000-1

I’d like to see the math on that one, please.

[Son_of_a_Rich]

@buddha_david

Screw 9/11. It’s gotta be karmic retribution for building this architectural monstrosity.

Reminds me of the Terminal Tower in Cleveland. But much, much bigger.

[Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor]

@Tom_Tildrum

The Middle East is indeed not averse to conspiracy theories, and the collapse of a crane operated by a Bin Laden family company on September 11 might well be seen as some sort of CIA-sponsored revenge.

The Saudis had finally managed to put together a few years without mass death at the hajj, and now this happens.

It will, and probably already is, blamed on the Jeeewwwsss!!!

They’d blame a rainy day on Mossad.

[LSLGuy]

@Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor

… They’d blame a rainy day on Mossad.

You have to admit that rainy days in Mecca (or Riyadh, etc.) *are *kinda rare and noteworthy events.

[PastTense]

One industry source, who asked not to be named, said that investigators likely would look at how the crane was stowed prior to the storm. Workers usually lower the boom to an angle of 60° or less and, if equipped with a luffing jib, rest the tip on a dolly on the ground, the source said. If there is not enough room to stow the jib, workers would secure the structure with guy wires. Although the crane was not in operation at the time, workers appeared to have left the boom and jib in the working position.

On September 15, the government of Saudi Arabia announced their preliminary findings on the accident, saying in a release through the state-owned Saudi Press Agency that “the main reason for the accident is the strong winds while the crane was in a wrong position.”

http://enr.construction.com/products/equipment/2015/0915-supercrane-collapse-in-mecca-ranks-deadliest-in-decades.asp

[nani]

This is a very bad tragedy. The Bin Laden Group has a reputation for not cutting corners - this made it a bit harder for Saudi security forces to break in when radicals took over the Grand Mosque in 1979 - and it seems like some pretty big corners were cut here.

Even with the huge crowds that the Saudis allow, the vast majority of Muslims have no realistic chance of going (3 million per year, in 100 years that is 300 million, compared to 1.6 billion Muslims, and many who can go to Hajj go more than once) and the pressure to expand is going to continue to grow and grow.

[Your_Great_Darsh_Face]

@Czarcasm

I’d like to see the math on that one, please.

Assume the accident can happen in any ten-minute slot in the year (to be ± 5 minutes) with equal probability. Only one such slot will do, so find out how many ten-minute slots there are in the year and the rest is left as an exercise for the student.

He’s out by a factor of about 10 but he is technically correct that the odds are “over” 5000 - 1.

[AK84]

@Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor

It will, and probably already is, blamed on the Jeeewwwsss!!!

They’d blame a rainy day on Mossad.

I’d like a cite for that. :rolleyes:

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

@Your_Great_Darsh_Face

Assume the accident can happen in any ten-minute slot in the year (to be ± 5 minutes) with equal probability. Only one such slot will do, so find out how many ten-minute slots there are in the year and the rest is left as an exercise for the student.

Again, it is not possible to make a credible statistical estimate of probability or the type and shape of a distribution from the observation of a singular event. The crane has probably not been in place for a twevle month period, nor are climate conditions such that high winds and storms in the Hejaz region have equal frequency of occurrance as distributed across the seasons.

Stranger