As crazy as it is, I’ve come to realize that this question fits in very well with previous musings I’ve had about having the courage of one’s convictions and how you (should) react to your beliefs about the future, so here goes.
So I’ve been doing better financially than I ever have, and have found myself with investable savings again. I was about to put it in my index fund when I thought, is this the right time? If Trump wins in less than two months and goes about doing what he promised, won’t that, at best, hit the stock market negatively, and at worst, make the dollar worthless and utterly destroy the American economy? Should I wait to see who wins? On the other hand, if the worst happens, my money is worthless regardless, and I have at least fifteen to twenty years to retirement, so I can ride out anything less than the destruction of American democracy.
This is what I meant when I’ve previously discussed “putting your money (heh) where your mouth is” and taking concrete action based on your political beliefs, which is why I’m putting this question out there despite having some idea of the majority opinion. Do I have good reason to hold onto my money for a while?
Historically, over the long term, the right time to put money into the stock market has always been today. Don’t try to time the market; just put your money in and let it ride. The only time to pull money out is as you get close to retirement and need to be more conservative.
If you think a Trump win will destroy the stock market as we know it, and ruin the economy for the foreseeable future, put your money in guns and canned food.
Historically the market declines a bit leading up the election and rebounds smartly once we know who wins, whichever party it is. So if you wanted to take the conventional POV, buying in between now and say the week before election day is the smart short-term play; you’ll be up by Christmas. Obviously trump’s proposed neo-Fascist takeover of teh USA means conventional historical wisdom may be especially inapt right now. Might: yo pays yo money and yo takes yo chances.
OTOH, as was wisely said above, if you’re investing (as you should be) rather than speculating, all that matters is where the market will be in 10, 20, or 30 years. The path it takes to get there is just noise.
During the 2008 financial meltdown, the dollar was appreciating. Because as screwed as the USA was rapidly becoming, everyone around the world knew they’d be even more screwed. So they poured into the relative safety of the US markets. If the trumply USA starts going haywire, I would not be very surprised to see the same thing happen again.
I have to withdraw from my IRA before Jan 1. I have planned to buy stock. But things are so darn uncertain. US Treasury Bonds may be more Conservative.
I have the identical question.
There’s so much uncertainty right now.
I may split the difference and put half in stock and half US Treasury Bonds. (3 year or 10 year Note)
The next Auction Date is Oct 3. Have to decide ASAP.
They are only offering 30 year Bonds Oct 3. That’s too long at my age.
My view on that topic is if the US government comes apart we’ll all be eating rats soon enough. So US T-bill or a US blue chip stock or even Bitcoin will all be nearly worthless. As will gold bullion or coins. Bullets and canned beans is all that’ll matter. And even they will only matter for much less than my unperturbed natural remaining lifetime.
For that reason I’m personally discounting that possibility to zero. I’m unwilling to make the actual lifestyle changes necessary to survive an actual Apocalypse starting in ~3 months. So I’m simply going to take my chances it won’t happen.
If you believe that Trump does nothing that does not personally benefit himself, then you are perfectly safe in putting your money into the stock market or any other type of investment.
The odds that Trump will destroy the economy and thereby destroy all his holdings in stocks, all his investments in real estate, and the endless stream of money from his cult - and thereby also wreck the entire world’s economy and destroy the value of his foreign golf clubs and other properties - are 1 in TREE(3).
If the dollar is worthless, then Trump is worthless. He will never, ever, ever be the cause of that. Worry about thousands of things if Trump wins, but not about money.
If Trump wins and tanks the US economy, other countries may be more stable. If Harris wins, I think pretty much everyone living in a Western Democracy will gain, so that’s a safe investment too.
Unless you own a whole lot of stock, pulling it all out at once will have only a fraction of an eyelash’s effect on where the market goes. The same goes for suddenly increasing your holdings.
The things Trump is promising to do may be foolish, but they’re unlikely to destroy the economy.
Trump’s chances of winning are currently at 50%. So I’d say there’s a strong case for diversification. US stocks, foreign stocks, TIPS, maybe some short term municipals.
Given that Trump advocates high tariffs on foreign goods and questions central bank independence, you might want to plan for inflation. Company earnings will go up with inflation - it’s long term bonds that would get creamed, even over the long term. So there’s a case for substituting TIPS (or mutual funds/ETFs based on TIPS) for ordinary treasury bonds. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tips.asp
You might also want to think about dollar averaging, if you are nervous about investing a big chunk of funds all at once.
Finally, get thee to Vanguard if you aren’t already. They have very low expense ratios and are owned by their account holders, limiting their hidden fees.
It’s a reasonably good time, in general. If you trace through the direction of growth (on a compounding line) prior to the pandemic stock bubble, we’re still below where things were for many indexes and in about that range for most others. You won’t be buying high.
The main reason to wait for the election would be to know which sectors are more likely to receive aid or risk harm.
If Harris comes in, green energy is likely to do better (and, really, the whole energy sector since she’s also willing to approve sensible use of fracking).
If Trump comes in, Taiwan, semiconductors, computers, and smart phones are all at great risk of suffering some major losses.
But so, if you’re aware of the likely impacts on both sides, you can simply place your money in areas that are less likely to be affected by either one.
We pulled $$ from mutual funds and put it into money markets when Trump won in 2016, fearing his loony policies might crash the economy. Didn’t happen, and caution cost us some dough.
Whatever shit comes down in the event of another Trump presidency may actually encourage the stock market, like what happened last time.
While I agree with your overall notion that it’s silly to worry about how to invest through Armageddon, your position here suggests / assumes that trump will a) be foresightful about all the economic / financial consequences of his actions and b) remain in full control of events as they unfold.
I agree fully that he would not deliberately crash the market because of the harm that would do to himself, the only person on Earth he thinks about even a smidgen.
But him inadvertently triggering a bank run or currency war or even a hot war that in turn triggers a major financial meltdown is not beyond the realm of possibility. In fact IMO it’s rather probable.
He’s a blind angry vindictive bull with no sense of strategy. It’s all close-range near-term reactive lashing out. Meanwhile, he’s playing in everyone’s china shop. And 2024-2028 will be a much more geo-politically and financially sensitive era than was 2016-2020. Yes, he will have advisors at least some of whom are marginally more foresightful than he is. But the wilder his ideas, the more it seems he gloms onto them unshakably.
Herbert Hoover was a rich President who wasn’t trying to cause a Great Depression. But his pig-headed insistence that he was right and his advisors were wrong when circumstances got precarious did exactly that. And very quickly thereafter things got out of hand well beyond the ability of the governmental forces of the day to contain no matter how presciently they might have been deployed from then forward.
Two decades and one world war later the consequences were plain to see.
You’re assuming that Trump has any idea what might cause his holdings to go bad. This very stable genius lost money on casino! A casino is practically a license to print money. He thinks he knows; that why he has had so many bankruptcies.
help me out here … but wasnt Trump president of the USA between 2017-21? … did the economy / wallstreet implode?
Lacking a crystal ball, I’d take the stockmarket’s performance between nov-2016 and feb-2020 as a fairly good indicator of what to expect should Trump win.
Checks and balances worked then, they will work again (hoping it wont be necessary)
He wants to be a ruthless dictator who forcefully eliminates his enemies. The United States being run by one of those would probably be bad for the entire world’s economy, especially given the steps Trump would take to make it happen (camps, political arrests, etc).