Crazy question: is there a political reason to hold off from putting money into the stock market until after the election?

[Sage_Rat]

@msmith537

I didn’t see any mention on potential impact to the market if Harris gets elected and institutes her proposed tax on unrealized capital gains. I don’t think that’s likely, but it would definitely negatively impact the market.

My expectation would be that, either 1) it won’t be able to get past the Republicans in Congress and Harris doesn’t expect otherwise or, 2) it will be watered down to such an extent that it barely registers on the overall stock market - and, again, Harris doesn’t expect otherwise.

The good thing about voting for sane people is that, say what they will on the campaign trail, they’re not expecting to push through any genuinely dramatic shift in legislation.

[Loach]

@Sage_Rat

@msmith537

I didn’t see any mention on potential impact to the market if Harris gets elected and institutes her proposed tax on unrealized capital gains. I don’t think that’s likely, but it would definitely negatively impact the market.

My expectation would be that, either 1) it won’t be able to get past the Republicans in Congress and Harris doesn’t expect otherwise or, 2) it will be watered down to such an extent that it barely registers on the overall stock market - and, again, Harris doesn’t expect otherwise.

The good thing about voting for sane people is that, say what they will on the campaign trail, they’re not expecting to push through any genuinely dramatic shift in legislation.

I agree with that. I didn’t look to deep into it after it looking completely unworkable on first glance. The Republicans even stopped using it as a talking point pretty quick. It’s not going to happen.

[DavidNRockies]

I don’t know exactly how much instability, volatility, isolationism, authoritarianism, vengeance, and global perception of corruption it would take before the vast majority of the world would shit BRICS and the dollar would be severely harmed.

Think of the rest of the world as the Democrats in the earlier part of 2024 and the US as … Joe Biden. They’re watching. They always are.

While it’s reasonable to think that the cohort of the 0.1%-ers who actively support Trump are more invested in the US economy than most of the rest of us, it’s also reasonable to think that they’re both far more diversified, keyed in to more, better, and earlier information, and are simply better able to weather financial storms in style than the rest of us.

I also think that – to the extent that Trump actually does materially execute on an “America First” agenda, there will be significant pain:

Trump's Economic Plan

Of the Trump-Biden tariffs, the Tax Foundation says, essentially: We estimate the Trump-Biden tariffs will reduce long-run GDP by 0.2 percent, the capital stock by 0.1 percent, and employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Candidate Trump has proposed significant tariff hikes as part of his presidential campaign; we estimate that if imposed, his proposed tariff increases would hike taxes by another $524 billion annually and shrink GDP by at least 0.8 percent, the capital stock by 0.7…

It’s harder to rally around that American flag when it costs $72.50 than when it’s China-made and cost $3.99. And the notion of the rising tide lifting all ships … won’t happen overnight, and it won’t be a painless process for anybody.

[AskNott]

I remember advice from John Templeton or somebody on the old Wall Street Week show. “Trying to guess the bottom of a price trough can be like trying to catch a falling safe. Just get in and hang on. Don’t panic at every little, or big, falloff. You’ll come out ahead by year’s end, and next year’s end.”

If you’re not a stock-picking wizard, get into one or more mutual funds. I have had good performance from TIAA and the Value Line funds, for example. I am not a fund-picking wizard, so here’s a grain of salt to take with my advice.