Critique this Trump Third Term plan

[Smapti]

@Saint_Cad

And this attorney agrees with me that “elected” and “eligible” are not synonyms.

I know a guy who doesn’t think it works that way.

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com)

[Czarcasm]

You have too be pretty damned wrong not to be able to find a lawyer that agrees with you.

[Stratocaster]

However, in striking down term limits imposed by state governments on members of Congress in U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton (1995), the Supreme Court held that term limits amount to a qualification for holding public office referencing the 22nd Amendment, stating that “the Nation as a whole… has imposed a limit on the number of terms that the President may serve. Term limits, like any other qualification for office, unquestionably restrict the ability of voters to vote for whom they wish.”

In at least one SCOTUS ruling (from the Wiki entry on the 22nd) the court seems to interpret the amendment as a clear term limit, no shenanigans recognized. “…a limit on the number of terms that the President may serve…”

[Monty]

@Czarcasm

For the sake of this argument, are we to assume that the rest of the Constitution doesn’t exist?

I already tried that line.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

The irony is that it was Republicans, annoyed with FDR for being elected four times, who pushed for the 22nd Amendment.

Alan D. weighs in:

Dershowitz Tells Trump Constitution Is ‘Not Clear’ On Third Term, Continuing...

[Son_of_a_Rich]

MAGATs have put up with trump all these years, but the ones who think they should be president wouldn’t want to wait, and suffer through, four more years of this inarticulate fucker.

[Love_Rhombus]

Marco Rubio has said he won’t run if Vance does, so that tells us that they’re already prepping.

Marco Rubio rules out 2028 run if JD Vance seeks Republican nomination

[Dissonance]

@Elendil_s_Heir

Alan D. weighs in:

On the bright side, my opinion of Dershowitz was already so bad that it couldn’t get any lower.

[enipla]

Trump: “Just tell them it’s unclear, we’ll do the rest”
Dershowitz: “Yes, your Majesty”

[PhillyGuy]

@Elendil_s_Heir

The irony is that it was Republicans, annoyed with FDR for being elected four times, who pushed for the 22nd Amendment.

Subheadline on your link:

Everyone knows the 22nd Amendment explicitly bars a president from getting elected to a third term.

But the actual text of that article tells us everyone does NOT know it:

It’s embarrassing, but also a potentially tragic teaser of the 2028 Supreme Court docket. Trump’s cronies on the Court are already trying to “well, maybe” their way into a president-for-life and Dershowitz is there to provide grist for that mill.

The problem with the 22nd amendment is that it’s just one more U.S. Constitution parchment promise with no enforcement mechanism.

There is one good way for it to be enforced. It should be enforced by a combination of states not allowing Trump’s name on their 2028 primary ballots and, in caucus states and territories, by the voters themselves refusing to caucus for Trump because they themselves respect the Constitution. Then, if Trump does win at the convention, maybe at the top of the ticket, maybe as VP, voters, respecting the Constitution, vote for a different ticket.

This didn’t work out last time with 14th amendment section 3, but never say never.

,

[Smapti]

@PhillyGuy

It should be enforced by a combination of states not allowing Trump’s name on their 2028 primary ballots

This is what will happen. If Trump files to run, any state where he does so will reject his filing on grounds of ineligibility.

@PhillyGuy

This didn’t work out last time with 14th amendment section 3,

Section 5 of the same amendment gives the power to enforce it to Congress, which is why the Supreme Court ruled as it did. Colorado overstepped its bounds. Such would not be the case in regards to enforcing the 22nd.

[Atamasama]

@Smapti

This is what will happen. If Trump files to run, any state where he does so will reject his filing on grounds of ineligibility.

Exactly. Any attempt to put Trump as the Republican candidate for POTUS is conceding the election to the Democrats.

[PhillyGuy]

@Smapti

If Trump files to run, any state where he does so will reject his filing on grounds of ineligibility.

Any blue state. And I suppose also in at least half the purple states. But if most Republicans still like Trump, the great majority of red state secretaries of state will do what Trump wants.

Also, there are no filing requirements in caucus states and territories, so I cannot see a way to deny Trump delegates from those.

This is one reason why the OP plan could work.

It still would alienate some swing voters who actually honor the constitution literally, or (more likely) do not like the idea that the House of Representatives will pick the president rather than “the people.” So for the OP idea to work, it would probably have to be accompanied by at least a little vote process fraud, such as a GOP governor sending their registered mail letter to the Archivist of the United States (cc to veep JD Vance), with the GOP slate of electors, even if the Associated Press thinks the Democratic ticket won the state.

Does anyone remember that Trump made the totally unqualified Marco Rubio the Archivist of the United States as an additional duty, and realize that the Archivist is sent the original lists of electors? This makes the Trump Third Term Plan just a smidgen more plausible.

[Smapti]

@PhillyGuy

But if most Republicans still like Trump, the great majority of red state secretaries of state will do what Trump wants.

Even if state law requires that candidates be eligible for the office they’re running for, which most states require? How many secretaries of state are willing to get themselves in legal trouble for Trump, considering that not a single Republican secstate wanted anything to do with his plans in 202p?

@PhillyGuy

Also, there are no filing requirements in caucus states and territories, so I cannot see a way to deny Trump delegates from those.

Which isn’t many, and not enough to win a nomination with.

@PhillyGuy

it would probably have to be accompanied by at least a little vote process fraud, such as a GOP governor sending their registered mail letter to the Archivist of the United States (cc to veep JD Vance), with the GOP slate of electors, even if the Associated Press thinks the Democratic ticket won the state.

Which, again, they tried to do in 2020 and not a single state played ball. I see no reason to think they’d be more successful with a Trump that’s eight years older, much less popular, and clearly in failing health.

@PhillyGuy

Does anyone remember that Trump made the totally unqualified Marco Rubio the Archivist of the United States as an additional duty, and realize that the Archivist is sent the original lists of electors? This makes the Trump Third Term Plan just a smidgen more plausible.

Marco Rubio doesn’t want Trump to be president in 2029. Marco Rubio wants Marco Rubio to be president in 2029. There are very few people in this administration who are so devoted to Donald Trump the man that they’re going to cast aside their own aspirations for him.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

How I hope you’re right!