Ok, in the interest of establishing what I would consider more reliable (but not absolute) proof of a genetic link, here’s what I would consider more of an actually predictive test.
Note that this is mainly an outline and that any actual scientific test would need several details figured out, not to mention nailing down statistical methods, eliminating biases, establishing actual methodologies, etc.
[ol]
[li]Establish what is meant by black. Since the current discussion seems largely US-centric, the US based rule is ok for now, i.e. skin/hair color darker than some level combined with some evidence of African ancestry. Yes, there are problems with this rule, so if you have a better idea, use it instead. [/li]
[li]For a large number of countries, collect the 100m, 200m, 400m times of the top 1, 5, 10, 20, 50 top white sprinters and the top 1, 5, 10, 20, 50 black sprinters for 2012, 2011, 2010, and farther back if possible.[/li]
It may be possible there aren’t sufficient samples for some countries, but that’s ok for a starting point. If necessary, go beyond professionals to amateurs, universities, or even high schools BUT make sure to keep non-professionals in mind when doing comparisons or statistical analyses. It’s important to get a large sampling of countries, especially former slave colonies/nations.
[li]For as many athletes as possible, collect as much individual data as possible. In particular, the socioeconomic class of the athlete and of their parents and grandparents, if possible. Were the parents also athletes at any level? Collect as much information about training and coaching as possible. When did the athlete begin competing in sprinting? When did the athlete first get reasonable coaching? Was the athlete’s high school, university, or coaching well known for training sprinters? Etc.[/li]
[li]Run the comparisons.[/li][LIST=2]
[li]Within individual countries: is the performance of black sprinters superior/inferior/equal to the performance of white sprinters?[/li][li] Across different countries: is the performance of white sprinters from some countries superior/inferior/equal to the performance of black sprinters of other countries? Which countries? [/li][li]Is the performance of black sprinters from former slave colonies superior to the performance of black sprinters of the countries slaves were originally taken from?[/li][li]Is there any correlation to coaching earlier in life (even pre-high school) and improved performance?[/li][/ol]
[/LIST]
Questions to ask in particular:
[ol]
[li]Are white sprinters from countries like the US or Canada better/worse/equal than black non-Jamaican sprinters from former slave colonies like Haiti, Cuba, Trinidad, Virgin Islands (UK or US), Brazil, etc? [/li]
[li]Is there any correlation between distance from Africa and the former slave colonies and sprinting ability (which is related to the actual original post)? [/li]
[li]How much variability is there in sprint times among blacks (or among whites) from different countries? Is there a wide range? Is there any correlation of times between former slave colonies and African nations? Is there any correlation of times even within Africa?[/li]
[li]Is there any correlation between top sprinters and their socioeconomic class? Is there a correlation between faster times (for either whites or blacks) and wealthier countries? Is there a statistically significant advantage to coaching earlier in life?[/li][/ol]
I understand that not all these numbers are universally available. But collecting as much of it as possible and doing what analyses and comparisons are available across countries is a much more reliable test than using the absolute top times (top world sprint times) or data from a single nation (top NFL runners).
Why is this a better test?
[ul]
[li]Unlike just looking at the top 3 times, it won’t be dominated by Jamaicans or Americans, i.e. it reduces both confirmation and selection bias. The larger sample means a more fair comparison of population statistics, rather than the unique combination of freak athletes and top level training.[/li]
[li]It helps (though does not determine) how much cultural factors matter .[/li]
[li]It firms up (though does not determine) how much the slave trade served as a selection process and/or de facto eugenics program.[/li][/ul]
It’s important to note that if white US sprinters outperform black sprinters from not-Jamaica, the argument against genetics is still not completely settled. Genetics may still play a part but a smaller part than culture (is it 0%, 5%, 10%, etc?). The extent to which both play a role would then have to be determined.
Likewise, if black sprinters perform universally better across the board, a genetic explanation seems much more likely now, though again not completely settled (is it 100%, 90%, 95%, etc?).