[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
Totally fair point of view. Like I said, if I was a liberal, I’d be giddy right about now.
[/QUOTE]
Right, an opt out 401k is pure socialism and a huge burden to business. But wait, of course it will only be companies of a certain size and of course something like 95% of these companies already use 401k plans. So where exactly is the shedding of tears I need to expend for these corporations’ HR & payroll department.
We just went to the opt out program as it was easier for HR & Payroll.
[QUOTE=Shodan]
With all due respect - if ever there was a case of wishful political thinking, this is it.
[/quote]
With equal respect, I’ve studied his chief economic advisor (Austan Goolsbee) and was pleasantly surprised to learn that he has been influenced, at least to some degree, by the Chicago School, a close relative of the Austrian School. He believes in a free-market and open trade, but points out that some of the “open trade” agreements made by recent administrations have been filled with thousands of pages of loopholes, dodges, exceptions, and special protections. He believes in low marginal tax rates, but points out that when Kennedy lowered marginal rates, take-home pay soared from 9% to 30% while Bush’s tax cuts have lowered marginal rates by tiny percentages, making practically no difference (for me, his tax cuts have amounted to 37 cents net gain per week). He believes that government spending, if it must be done, should go toward infrastructure, disaster relief, and quality of life improvement for Americans. It is the last one that bothers me most, but it is much more reasonable than Hillary’s reckless welfare fetish.
And so, I believe that there is a rational basis for me to suspect that Obama may well become more fiscally conservative over time. And why not? Who would have guessed in the 1980s how fiscally leftist the Republicans were to become?
I’m afraid you don’t, and apparently won’t. Sorry.
[QUOTE=xtisme]
However…would you like to place a little side bet on him actually getting any of that implemented? Immediately end the occupation of Iraq?? Not a chance…unless by ‘immediately’ you mean sometime in his second term (if we are lucky). UHC? I won’t hold my breath for that one either. Energy independence? You mean DURING his (assumed) 2 terms in office?? Or working towards energy independence sometime in the next, oh, say 50 years?
-XT
[/QUOTE]
No bets but I’ll give an assessment of the chances of each one … First off I am predicting that wins resoundingly well. That perceived mandate will give him some power that he’ll take full advantage of.
Out of Iraq? His approach will be to set a defined timetable and shore up the situation in Afganistan more. It will be a staged withdrawal. We will be more out of Iraq with Obama in charge than with either HRC or McCain. Totally out? No. But left in more advisory and support capacities. His honeymoon period will be not only with Congress but on the world stage which will view him extremely favorably after the Bush years. His plea for multilateral involvement will be heeded before they appreciate what they are signing on to and others will end up carrying more of the water in the region as a whole.
Universal health care? Something will actually get done. Here I will predict that HRC will actually do much of the work as a Senate leader (and get much of the credit). I am not sure if the final will include a mandate or not but am confident that it will be an improvement on what we got now. It may include some of the tax reform considerations proposed by the Pubbie side as well (and should).
Energy independence? No one is promising that. Nor is it even completely desirable. Decreased energy dependence, yes. It will be tied together with action on global climate change. Auctioned cap and trade (perhaps sponsored by McCain) and tax credits for EVs, EREVs, and PHEVs with sliding scale based primarily on how much gas use they displace.
[QUOTE=Liberal]
With equal respect, I’ve studied his chief economic advisor (Austan Goolsbee) and was pleasantly surprised…
[/QUOTE]
And David Romer’s works were in heavy rotation in my political economy program in grad school. Any committee that includes him has some serious horsepower.