I happened to drop into the TABnear work at lunchtime at the end of this game. You can watch but most of the TVs are pumping out racing coverage, so no commentary.
The Heat have Chalmers take an unguarded 3 to draw level with 24.5 seconds on the clock. Two young guys were talking about the game and one said, “Well that’s it, the Mavs will run out the shot clock and score.”
I said, “Surely not. As soon as they inbound Miami have to foul don’t they?”
Everyone around watching the game agreed.
But the Heat didn’t foul. They let the Mavs play 20 seconds off the clock and make a layup.
If I recall, they had a foul to give, too. It was plain stupidity. According to Lebron (via espns daily dime), Spolstra even reminded them at that point.
It sounds like you’re asking 2 things. One brought up by drm. They should have taken a foul to both see the mavs’ first play option and also get another chance at the inbound play.
The other is what I think you’re asking which is, ‘Miami’s gonna give up 2, why not allow more time on the clock for themselves.’
But to force them onto the foul line when you’re tied isn’t the optimum strategy. The best play is to get a defensive stop. If they were behind by any amount, they would have fouled, but being tied you want to get a stop and force overtime (at home).
Yeah but I’m guessing you don’t give up 2 at the stripe all of the time. And if you’re smart you try to get the other team to inbound to a noted dud at the free throw line.
If they suspect you are going to foul, there won’t be any duds in the game to foul to begin with.
By fouling you guarantee the other team about 1.5 points. Most possessions average about 1.1 points, so clearly it’s -EV to foul in a tie game. But even beyond that, end-of-game possessions in tie games are much lower than 1.1 points per possession, as teams hold for the last shot, and often sacrifice getting a better shot in order to make sure the other team doesn’t get a chance. That usually means contested jumper.
They had a foul to give, so there would not have been foul shots unless the foul occurred during the act of shooting. Once Dirk had the ball they should have fouled him and made the Mavs inbound the ball again, with less time to run a play and no timeouts to draw up a new one.
Indeed, this was the case. Miami certainly should have fouled with about 6 seconds or so left. Forcing Dallas to inbound the ball with that amount of time would have greatly increased Miami’s odds of getting a defensive stop or even a steal. Dirk even said he started his move a little early because he was sure they’d foul him. As it turned out, they didn’t even bother to guard him.