I’m curious about two things really. First, what would be the deadliest day in U.S. history, cumulative deaths for any and all reasons, be it war, terrorism, natural, whatever?
Second would be is there a day or dates that consistently is prone to higher than average numbers? Maybe one given to being the hottest or coldest on average or possibly one in the middle of hurricane season would cause the numbers to frequently skew. Maybe the reasons are something else entirely. Or maybe they don’t exist to an appreciable degree.
What got me wondering about this was, as you might guess, September 11. I was wondering if even with the 3040 that died on that day if their numbers are overwhelmed with what we lose on average, what with us being a nation of many, many millions.
Google tells me the current population of the U.S. is about 298,545,000 and the New England Journal of Medicine reports we suffer about 5500 deaths per day.
I did find this: *"The number of victims at the World Trade Center (WTC) stands at 2,807: 1,379 were confirmed dead, 1,350 were declared dead and 78 continue to be listed as missing. Another 233 were killed in the attack on the Pentagon and the plane crash in Pennsylvania. September 11, 2001, was the second bloodiest day in U.S. history - after the battle of Antietam during the Civil War (in which more than 23,000 were killed, wounded or missing)."*
So I wonder, do the losses of Antietam still hold the dubious distinction or has that since been eclipsed due in part to our sheer size and are there noticable trends on an annual basis? Many thanks in advance for any light one could shed on this.
A little more research has said that Antietam was over a three day period but that nearly that number was lost at Shiloh over two days and 51,000 over three at Gettysburg.
It puts the national population at the time at 34,300,000. If the 1.84% obtained dividing 5500 by 298 million holds true, the national loss was on average around 630 a day.
Giles, I was reading casualties as deaths but see via your post that it includes wounded.
Galveston, yes, that would be at or near the top.
Bosda, it may be that a month is the closest we can narrow it to. We’ll see.
They’re commemorating the gigantic SF-earthquake today (it’s the centenial anniversary), but I think the toll there was about 3,000. My other best guess (not counting Civil War battles) was the Johnstown flood, but that killed 2,200. In other words, neither of those. My, that was unhelpful.
The three-day is misleading. Nearly all the casualties were on September 17. There was no fighting on the 16th (the armies just confronted one another), and just a small bit of skirmishing on the 18th. There were probably a few casualties those other days, but 99% of battle casualties were on the 17th (or were people shot on the 18th who died the next day).
I remember reading in the book “What Cops Know” that holidays are good for homicides because they tend to blend alcohol and family together, and that more women commit suicide on Mothers Day than any other day. I know it’s not only a bit morbid, and that your OP was more along the lines of natural disasters, but this sprang to mind while reading.
This, combined with Reality Chuck’s point, would suggest that September 17, 1862 saw 3654 deaths plus a period average of 630 for a total of around 4280.
The 1900 census of 76,212,168 at our 1.84% is 1404 plus Galveston’s 6,000 to 10,000 gives a conservative estimate of 7400, maybe a good deal higher.
1911’s 92,228,496 gives 1700 a day plus October’s pandemic numbers which will be much harder to pinpoint but apparently are a minumum of 6700 a day for a total of at least 8400 sometime during the month.
Pearl was slightly less than 2001 and the census was lower.
September 11, 2001 was an average of 5500 plus 3040 for a total of around 8540.
Although projected deaths will almost certainly be way wrong, I have heard large fatalities predicted whenever:
San Francisco gets another earthquake
Los Angeles "
The New Madrid fault acts up anywhere from St. Louis to Memphis and points south
A Katrina sized hurricane hits anywhere north of Virginia
Another rash of tornadoes like April 1974 hits
Some American city is the the target of a nuke
Another Mt. St. Helens erupts near a populated area
Bird flu outbreak
Some other viral outbreak like Ebola
The next Al Qaida “statement”
Plus there I can’t believe everyone who was listed as dead in the 9-11 attacks died on 9-11. Though certainly most must’ve there must’ve been some that didn’t die till the next day
The day of 9-11 may have actually been lower than average because more people were stuck unable to move. Business sent people home, less opportunities for accidents etc etc…
Don’t know that stats but what about battle deaths in WWII. Does the original post limit deaths soley on American territory. I don’t know if any huge losses were sustained in the World Wars
I don’t think that assuming the current US death rate to be equal to that of the past is a good assumption. The death rate in the past is almost certainly higher (on average) because the average life expectancy in 2000 is significantly higher than it was in 1900.
Apparently no one knows how many were killed for sure; officials stuck to their story that only some hundreds died. They think now it was 4,000 or so, but it’s hard to tell.