Deal cut with North Korea: For real, this time?

[Squink]

Nomenklatura

[tagos]

@Ravenman

So we’ve negotiated a deal with crazy ol’ North Korea. I’m waiting for the explanation from the White House about why it continues to reject diplomacy with Iran.

Because they are part of the Unicycle of Evil. Do try to keep up.

[FRDE]

Ok, the Cab Sauv inhibited my spelling.

The more privileged classes in N. Korea can see that it is just a matter of time before things change, it might be revolting peasants and it might be that they turn on each other.

Complete nutter governments are on the decline, the Chinese are pragmatically adapting their economy, the Russians (also neighbours) are on the road to getting seriously rich.

N. Korea is surrounded by increasingly wealthy neighbours, radio, television and breaches in borders spread information.

Right now I reckon that the nomenklatura (thanks Squink) are working out how to achieve ‘peace with honour’ - ie: stay on top of the dog pile and don’t get prosecuted for crimes in a different regime.

N Korea is a bit like Blair and Bush - dead in the water, and worried about their future.

[Squink]

@Squink

It remains to be seen whether Bush negotiated a decent deal, and whether he can stand up to the pressure to repudiate it; to say nothing of Kim Jong Il.

Well, now that the the intelligence community is backing off on their certainty of the existence of a North Korean uranium enrichment program, the basis of 4 years of white house policy is in jeopardy. Remember this?

The President:
As I said – and the decision to cut off fuel oil was a joint decision. It was not a U.S. decision, it was jointly made with the South Koreans and the Japanese and the European Union, for that matter. It’s important for the American people to remember the history of Kim Jong-il. He created some international tension and the United States of America went and signed an agreement with him. And the agreement was that we’d provide – along with others, we’d provide fuel oil and help and in return, he would not enrich uranium.

But it turns out he was enriching uranium. And we blew the whistle on the fact that he was in violation of the '94 agreement. And the parties to that agreement came together and said, well, in return for him making that decision, in terms of him abrogating the agreement there will be a consequence. And that’s where we stand right now.

So the parties have come together. There has been a joint declaration of intent. And we will continue working to resolve the situation.

And the joint declaration itself? It turns out it was all based on crappy intelligence.
Bush had better cling to the deal he’s got now, because he’s got no credibility to go fishing for a better one anymore.

[FRDE]

To be honest I expect that the South Koreans have been paddling away trying to get some sort of rapprochement.

If that is the case then the Japanese would be involved, and I would not be surprized if the Chinese did not squeeze the USA a bit.

[RTFirefly]

@Squink

Well, now that the the intelligence community is backing off on their certainty of the existence of a North Korean uranium enrichment program, the basis of 4 years of white house policy is in jeopardy. Remember this? And the joint declaration itself? It turns out it was all based on crappy intelligence.
Bush had better cling to the deal he’s got now, because he’s got no credibility to go fishing for a better one anymore.

And even if the intel had been good as gold, it would have taken NK many years to (a) make thousands of replicas (of sufficient quality, which is one of the really hard parts) of the 20 centrifuges they got from our ‘ally’ Pakistan, and (b) use those centrifuges to refine weapons-grade uranium.

But they could make a plutonium bomb almost right away. And once Bush gave them sufficient reason to abrogate the Agreed Framework, they did.

Now, of course, they’re backing off the intel. So Bush and Cheney opened the way for NK, with probably the craziest ruler in the world (aside from the Bush/Cheney duo, of course), to become a nuclear power. And we got zilch out of the deal.

To quote Patrick Fitzgerald, “Madness! Madness! Madness!!”

These guys shouldn’t be trusted with a dull knife, let alone control of the world’s sole superpower.

I know it’s not a popular view, but goddamn, we need to impeach these guys just to keep them from doing more damage.