Deal Or No Deal/Monty Hall Problem

[TriPolar]

@Learjeff

Another thing that’s ignored above is that in the game, there were always 1 goat, one good prize, and one grand prize. If Monty shows the goat, you know you have one or the other. But sometimes he shows the good prize, and gives you the chance to switch. Most people don’t. IIRC, this often happened even when they’d chosen the goat. So, Monty doesn’t always show you the goat if you pick it.

The TV show is different that way. He never shows the grand prize, but he may show a good prize. Some of those good prizes were really good sometimes. I think occasionally contestants thought they were being shown the grand prize, but as far as I know that was never done. It really doesn’t matter though, the show had more flexible rules than the problem, and Monty could use all sorts of ways to coerce contestants if he wanted to.

[Learjeff]

Part of it is that I bet Monty was good at reading people, and would use different tactics for different types.

Regardless, I rarely saw anyone switching from their first choice, and I used to watch the show a lot, as a kid. At least, that’s how I remember it. If so, most of his offers were more for show than to sway the outcome. Perhaps the best bet would be to look dumb but act smart. I’m better at doing the reverse.