I just played 2 games on line. 1st = $83,764. 2nd = $1,000,000!
The game indeed has no point, no skill, no anything, yet I’ve watched it with great interest for a couple of nights just to see how statistically dumb people are. Bail when the odds are against you and take home some decent cash.
And is Howie Manel the best host they could find for this? Nice earing Howie.
Holy crap! I just won $1,000,000 for the second time in a row!
First suitcase 7, then suitcase 15. I think I’m picking up some lottery tickets on the way home…
I can’t be the only one annoyed by the “helpful” suggestions shouted out by the family and friends that the players bring along with them.
“Pick three! Three is good!”
“Twelve! Pick twelve!”
“Eight! Eight is great!”
Good grief.
And how weird is it that Howie Mandel knows the names of every suitcase model?
I really wish Howie would say things like:
STUPID! YOU’RE SO STUPID!!!
Playing the website version I notice the offers tend to stat out significantly below EV but as fewer and fewer cases are left it gets closer to EV. Is the TV game the same? If you are strictly risk neutral (which people generally are not) you would always play out to the end.
I will say that Mandel seems to do a fine job as the host. Obviously, they needed somebody different from a traditional gameshow host like Pat Sajak or Alex Trebek, but I wouldn’t have thought of using a standup comic. He does a good job with the timing and ‘patter’, but I suppose that’s to be expected.
I’m almost ashamed to admit we’ve found the first two nights riveting, but I’m sure the novelty will wear off soon, and I agree that staying power may be a problem with this.
Here’s a question: When the bank offers are made, will they always be the same, given the same set of remaining amounts on the board?
The difference between this game and the Monty Hall is that Monty never offers you to take the average of all the prizes combined. Big difference.
It would be the same if Monty did this:
You pick a door. He shows you a goat behind a door you didn’t pick. The other doors contain a goat & a car. Now, he gives you the option of taking a bicycle.
That’s a big difference.
I haven’t watched the show, but it sounds kind of interesting.
Rarely is it stupid to take the bank or not because they have it high enough to make it interesting.
A coworker was telling me about a case where a guy had a
10,000
300000
400000
500000
and they offered him about 250000. He said, “the guy should have taken it. What an idiot.”
But, of course. First of all, his expected value was about 300,000. But, he also knows that the offer would decrease to about 190,000 (should be 230000) even if he chose the 500,000 briefcase. It would stay about the same if he chose the 300000 or 400000 and would rise to probably 350000 if he eliminated the 10,0000.
A lot of factors go into that decision, not the least of which is a person’s view of the utility of the difference.
For instance, mathematically speaking a guy on “who wants to be a millionaire” should ALWAYS guess when he has 64K and has done a 50/50. He loses 32 or wins 61 on a coin flip. But, if he owes $45,000 to his bookie, that’s a whole other thing to consider beyond the numbers.
From what I’ve heard, it sounds like they’re not offering you exact expected value. The online game definitely doesn’t and from the descriptions I’ve heard, they don’t on TV either.
I’m not sure that the bank’s offers are just an average. If so, the offer after the first 6 picks would be, in general, >$100,000 given that the average of the value of the cases at the beginning is some $131,000.
Howie is the perfect host for this show, in my opinion. He seems to have empathy with the contestants.
The suitcase models are a nice touch. Having the families there is not. Interesting at first, but may not have a lot of staying power. They need to reduce the number of bank offers and speed the game up and get rid of the families.
The biggest problem with this game is that the whole game should take about 10 minutes for one person to play through, NOT AN ENTIRE HOUR!!!
Play the online version. You can get through 20 games in a few minutes.
Yes, I noticed this earlier. The online version definitely doesn’t do simple averages. They seem to be much lower offers than that.
The TV version always offered exactly what the average was every time I checked. However, I only checked about 4-5 times with a calculator while I watched the show. Maybe I was wrong to assume that they always offer the EV?
I’m embarrassed that not only did I not recognize him in any of the previews, needing to see his name plastered on the screen in the info blurb when I changed the channel to find it was on, but I also thought… looks around he was pretty hot-looking bald.
Woo-hoo, I made a deal for $238!
I made a deal for $421,500.00. Opened the case and it was $50K. Not bad at all. The show, however? Bad.
I’ve only seen this show in the UK where it seems the amounts are slightly smaller (£250000 is the highest value), but hate it. I get the feeling that my brain cells are being rapidly killed if I happen to watch the show. I watched an episode once and figured that I would probably enjoy the show at least enough to watch it mindlessly seeing as I’m a fan of gameshows in general (well, mostly any show with trivia invloved). Instead, all I got was the opening of boxes with fake drama created every time a box was opened even though it didn’t really have any meaning (and an inordinate amount of psychics being these box openers it seemed - usually ‘having a bad day’ or something so they couldn’t tell if it was a high or low value). Anyway, now I have to turn the TV off immediately after Countdown (one of the best shows ever) in order to avoid getting worked up about this stupid gameshow.
I did see an episode fairly recently though for some reason (wasn’t me with the remote and I was probably too hungover to care anymore or something) where the guy ended up with £10 (he eventually opened his box when it could be either 10 or 100). That was pretty fun - he’d apparantly quit his job and everything when he found out he’d be on the show. Not sure if it was a ‘real’ job or just some retail type job that he could go find another one of in no time though - all I know is that throughout the show that was all the host talked about. The guy did manage to not cry or anything - too bad - that would’ve been good. You’d think that the guy would be slightly more risk averse and take an offer of good money when there are only a few boxes remaining and the odds are against him getting anything better. Can’t really feel sorry for him when he did reach a point where he quite obviously should’ve stopped especially based on the fact that he did need the money (or maybe he didn’t and just didn’t care… who knows…).
After having said how dumb the show is, it is one of the few shows I’d love to go on. So easy to make decent money on (even if the amounts in the UK are significantly smaller than the US) and no skill or exceptional knowledge required - just basic statistics which you could learn before going on the show if you didn’t already know it. You’re practically guaranteed to leave with a reasonable hunk of cash unless you are a complete fool (or, I guess, if you have some sort of freak bad luck and manage to eliminate all the high values in your first 2 goes or something…) .
I think it’s more like “The New Treasure Hunt”–remember that farce? A contestant picked one of a number of gift boxes, one of which contained $25,000. The host (Geoff Edwards, one of the few game show hosts Howie Mandel is actually better than) then stalled for about 10 minutes before revealing the prize.
That having been said, I’ll probably tune in the rest of the week because (a) there’s not a whole lot else on, and (b) I truly enjoy watching people make asses of themselves. 
Perhaps he doesnt want to drink from the fire hose?
Then again… I wouldnt want to find a marble in my oatmeal either.
I wouldn’t be so sure. It’s on TV when I go to the gym every week and I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone play it rationally. It seems as if they are deliberately getting non-rational players up there to make it seem more exciting. How this concept could survive so many years is anyones guess.
And they wonder why nobody takes them seriously.
But that’s why it’s so interesting, Shalmanese. If everyone were rational, you’d get good data about preferences over risk. But the show also provides us with people making inconsistent choices - when they accept an alternative they have previously (implicitly) rejected. It’s a good way of testing theories about framing effects, endowment effects and that sort of thing.
Okay, I get you know. I was trying to make the point that the sample seems decidely non-random and atypical but I guess it still has some validity. I bet your friends must be big fans of Stephen Levitt then ;).