The article mentions a number of medical centers who are experiencing a dramatic increase in pre-natal treatment. The only allowances the article makes for skepticism are these passages:
Of course, because the supposed rise in birth rate after the NY blackout (which the NY Times reported somewhat credulously) was shown not to exist, I remain skeptical.
So my question is: has anyone read a good analysis showing whether this is true or not?
Eh, I’m not a statistician, but this–“Fuchs has 25 patients due this June, instead of her usual 15 to 20”–doesn’t sound like much of a demographic bulge to me.
And this–“At the Elizabeth Seton Childbearing Center in Manhattan, women signed up for prenatal care last fall in record numbers”–only proves that more women felt like having prenatal care last fall, not that more women were pregnant.
And this whole article is very carefully written to give you the impression that there’s a baby boom on the way, but I don’t see it. I just see a lot of slanted writing, especially in this paragraph.
And, as the paragraph goes on, notice how this next, negative, sentence is buried in between positive sentences:
Increases of 8%, 10%, and even 20% are not that big. And the guy with the 33% increase may just happen to be a really good OB/GYN and word-of-mouth on him is excellent, so his practice is up by a third.
One obstetrician with a one-third increase in his practice is not a “baby boom”. You’d have to have numbers from all over the country that confirmed it, before you could say, “Yes, there was a post-9/11 baby boom”. And that won’t happen until later on this summer.
One of the first things you learn when you take a statistics class in college is, “You can use statistics to prove anything you want.”
A similar expansion was supposed to have occurred 9 months after the Ice Storm hit Montreal in 1998, but for aught I know it was the same statistic-jiggering.
My local paper, www.fosters.com , had an article claiming this yesterday, but about impending births rather than prenatal care. Their numbers are small to begin with, but when I thought about it, they’re claiming over a 20% increase at some hospitals.
Our hospital in Madison, WI is expecting one, but hasn’t seen it. Our department was expecting a significant enrollment increase in prenatal education courses, and we haven’t seen that either.
The article Zyada posted noted one doctor’s opinion that the “bump” may be delayed, because it typically takes several months for a couple to get pregnant once they start trying.
i’ve heard that when people attend funerals, many times they have sex around then - i’m not sure i remember whether it was because of consolation or feeling more alive themselves or what. but i know that 9-11 could definitely be considered a big long funeral. i don’t have any stats to back any of this up, so it could have been a bogus source i heard that from.
i’ve heard that when people attend funerals, many times they have sex around then - i’m not sure i remember whether it was because of consolation or feeling more alive themselves or what. but i know that 9-11 could definitely be considered a big long funeral. i don’t have any stats to back any of this up, so it could have been a bogus source i heard that from.