I thought midterm election usually meant even-numbered years, when the House and a third of the Senate are up for re-election. This is an off year. And no, I don’t think most people are voting for or against Obama today. I do think we can expect the news stations to continue treating it that way, though, which is stupid and unenlightening: we’re dealing with local offices here, and it’s not unusual for a Democratic-leaning state federally to have a Republican governor, or vice versa. And not only that, but Virginia and New Jersey are usually tight races in the first place.
Nate Silver at 538.com has a great piece about this today, by the way.