Defensive Gun Use: 2.5 Million or 2.5 per year?

[Kable]

@Dave_Hartwick

You’re talking about the crude odds ratio? The table that tells a more complete story, and that reflects the focus of the study, is “Murder risk, adjusted ratio.”

Anyway, the answer to why rifles and shotguns show a lower univariate (uncontrolled) risk is probably that they are less likely to be kept loaded and unlocked. (Accidents were not in the scope of the study.) The risk boils down to getting shot by somebody close with an unlocked, loaded handgun. Which is, of course, exactly the sort of weapon often kept for protection.

I drink. I take risks like everybody does. But we’re not talking about the risks associated with drinking.

Dave I just printed off, read and highlighted the original Kellerman study. I have lots of comments but I’ll limit myself to the few I already touched on for now.

First it seems to implement handguns only, with rifles and shotguns (loaded or not) lessening the risk for homicide. So probably an AR15 is a good thing to have in the home, or at least not a bad thing. Would you agree?

Second, the alcohol thing. It seems the authors were really overstating their case with the dangers of firearms and homicide, if just having someone in the home who drinks increases the odds of homicide to the same degree. Would you agree? I think such overstatement would be an indicator of bias per the researchers. What say you?

Also one thing interesting I found was that more than half of the murders used for analysis were not done with a gun, but rather with a knife, club, or strangled, etc.

[LinusK]

I used my gun defensively 3 times last week! First there was the incident of the Guy Was Tailgating Me, then there was the Guy Who Was Suspiciously Sitting In His Car Doing Nothing, and finally there was the matter of the Pizza Delivery Guy Who Came To My Door After I Forgot That I Had Called Him. (Litigation Pending.)

If I’m a typical gun-rights advocates - I’d say 2.5 million wildly under-estimates the true number.

[DragonAsh]

@bdgr

But while we are on the subject of accidental deaths and such, about 8 times the number of people die from misuse of alcohol as do from guns. Why do we spend so much time on guns?

Because people end up dead a hell of a lot more frequently when a gun is used vs the use of a can of beer / swimming pools / cars / hammers etc?

@Kable

Second, the alcohol thing. It seems the authors were really overstating their case with the dangers of firearms and homicide, if just having someone in the home who drinks increases the odds of homicide to the same degree.

Maybe I missed this - cite for ‘having someone who drinks in the home increases the odds of homicide to the same degree as firearm ownership’?

[Hentor_the_Barbarian]

@DragonAsh

Maybe I missed this - cite for ‘having someone who drinks in the home increases the odds of homicide to the same degree as firearm ownership’?

It’s the result of a total lack of understanding of statistics. This is true even though the quoted material takes pains to explain that the first table is of confounded, uncontrolled relationships.

It would be like reading data on 1) storks on roofs, 2) new babies in households, and 3) and warmth of buildings with infants in them. Without controlling for each of the variables, one would find the odds were elevated for storks being on the roofs of households with new babies. An ignorant person would conclude that storks brought babies to households.

[ChickenLegs]

@GusNSpot

I grew up in a home with all the guns loaded all the time. Seven children. Dad always said, “An unloaded gun is useless.” No accidents. We all knew where the weapons were.

I am 69.

Many friends & neighbors did the same.

My home has always been this way.

I can absolutely prove that NOT having a weapon did not keep my daughter from being murdered by a combination of strangulation & drowning when she was 18 years & 6 weeks old in her first apartment.

I can absolutely prove that not having a weapon did not prevent one of my sisters from being raped twice. Same guy. After first arrest, he said at the hearing he would attack her again if he could.
They ( DA ) & ( police would not provide even extra drive by checks. ) let him out on bail. We protected her in our homes for three weeks. First hours she was back in her own house he attacked her again. Great job once again system.

When I was 16 and still living at home, during dinner one evening a crazy guy kicked in the front door and charged the kitchen. My Dad intercepted him as he crossed the living room and the fight did not stop until I I had one of the shotguns from the gun closet stuck in his ear.

I am very glad they were already loaded and not locked away.

In 1959, While on a date, we were the victims of an attempted robbery, car jack or attempted rape on my date. Never wait to find out for sure, used a firearm to dissuade them. We were sorta in a bad part of town.

We lived on the S/E side of Tulsa OK at the time, ( Not a hot bed of gang or the normal bad stuff even today with more than a million population ) the good part of a pretty good town without much real violence … ( race riots of 1921 not withstanding… I’m not that old )

Those were the ‘bad’ ones. Several more DGU’s over the years.

Now that is just me.
I will work much harder to keep my right to lethal defense than you will to take it away from me.

I have for years tried to be understand of those who say my opinion on gun control does not count because I am a victim and victims should have no say on the subject because we can’t be objective.

I am no longer understanding. I have found that most of the anti- gun or more gun control advocates, when talked to person to person and gotten to display their real reasons , it is fear. Not of normal citizens with weapons but their own inability or unwillingness to protect their own.

I know of no survey so don’t bother saying, “Not me.” or ‘cite’ I did say it was my observation & experience.

Now I know I will be cast as an exception or outlier but… Since these threads are mostly flagged under “No cost is to great to save even one life.” ( wanna get into cars or aviation again? ) I want to know why your children are more important then mine?

I have had a CCW permit for many years, plus all the above and not one thing that has been trotted out as common place and statics say, applies to me and my extended family. There are over 100 blood & marriage relatives that we know personally and keep track of living all over the world that have not one of the concerns that are being bandies about. None of then were surveyed either.

If I told you what my Mothers Mother could do at a full gallop sitting sidesaddle on a horse with a six gun you would have to call me a lair.

Life is not sacred, never was, never will be.

I see written , “But we have to try.”
Like we are not trying? What you want to try already has been, and it made no difference.

Sorry for your losses, sir, and thank you for your perspective. If you ever make to Wyoming, let me know. I’ll buy you a beer and take you shooting (in reverse order.)

[DragonAsh]

@GusNSpot

Never wait to find out for sure, used a firearm to dissuade them.

Ah yes, ‘shoot first and ask questions later’. Lovely.

I’m glad I live no where near you.

[Kable]

@DragonAsh

Maybe I missed this - cite for ‘having someone who drinks in the home increases the odds of homicide to the same degree as firearm ownership’?

That was the Kellerman study Dave Hartwick posted.

A gun in the home increases personal safety

All the risk was associated with handguns. People with a rifle or shotgun at home were at a lesser risk for homicide. There are more criticisms to the study on wiki Arthur Kellermann - Wikipedia

[Kable]

@DragonAsh

Ah yes, ‘shoot first and ask questions later’. Lovely.

I’m glad I live no where near you.

Did he shoot em?

[Dave_Hartwick]

@Kable

That was the Kellerman study Dave Hartwick posted.

A gun in the home increases personal safety

All the risk was associated with handguns. People with a rifle or shotgun at home were at a lesser risk for homicide. There are more criticisms to the study on wiki Arthur Kellermann - Wikipedia

Again, you’re looking at the uncontrolled table.

[Dave_Hartwick]

At least four people accidentally injured by guns at “Gun Appreciation Day” events in the US today. On the bright side, 6.2 million crimes were prevented by the rallies, using Kleck’s calculations.

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2013/01/how-many-people-got-shot-gun-appreciation-day-rallies/61192/

[Kable]

@Dave_Hartwick

Again, you’re looking at the uncontrolled table.

Dave, what does the controlled table say about having a rifle or shotgun in the home?

Also what does the controlled data say about having a person in the home drinking alcohol?

[Dave_Hartwick]

@Kable

Dave, what does the controlled table say about having a rifle or shotgun in the home?

Also what does the controlled data say about having a person in the home drinking alcohol?

The controlled table does not distinguish between rifles, shotguns, or handguns. I know you’ve read the link, right? Why ask me? There’s only six variables the researchers found significant. Alcohol is not one of them.

[DragonAsh]

@Kable

Did he shoot em?

Completely beside the point. He doesn’t know what the people approaching the car wanted. He assumed the worst and started waving a gun around. They could have been trying to ask for a map or for directions, or if they had a jack for the car 'cause they had a flat. He insists it was an ‘attemped robbery or maybe an attempted car jack, and maybe an attemped rape’. We just have to take his word for it. :rolleyes:

And yet he insists it’s the gun *control *advocates that advocate such out of fear?

And he doesn’t think life is sacred, except his own, apparently. Charming.

I hope he enjoys the dark, lonely little corner of the paranoid little world he lives in.

[Kable]

@Dave_Hartwick

The controlled table does not distinguish between rifles, shotguns, or handguns. I know you’ve read the link, right? Why ask me? There’s only six variables the researchers found significant. Alcohol is not one of them.

I’ve read more than the link. You are right that the researchers didn’t publish additional data on rifles and shotguns, which is odd since the data they gave indicates some protective value rather than increased risk. Why do you think they didn’t separate that out?

Was the alcohol variable found to be insignificant, or did they just ignore that data for their “controlled table”?

[Kable]

@DragonAsh

Completely beside the point. He doesn’t know what the people approaching the car wanted. He assumed the worst and started waving a gun around. They could have been trying to ask for a map or for directions, or if they had a jack for the car 'cause they had a flat. He insists it was an ‘attemped robbery or maybe an attempted car jack, and maybe an attemped rape’. We just have to take his word for it. :rolleyes:

So maybe you don’t know what happened then. Maybe you had to be there. That’s fine. But you implied he shot first and asked questions later:

Ah yes, ‘shoot first and ask questions later’. Lovely.

So yeah, I think it matter whether he actually shot the guys or not. Or do you think that’s just trivial?

[Dave_Hartwick]

@Kable

I’ve read more than the link. You are right that the researchers didn’t publish additional data on rifles and shotguns, which is odd since the data they gave indicates some protective value rather than increased risk. Why do you think they didn’t separate that out?

Was the alcohol variable found to be insignificant, or did they just ignore that data for their “controlled table”?

The question about alcohol that you just asked was discussed in the article.

The uncontrolled risk you see for shotguns and rifles possibly turned out to be statistically insignificant, a concept also discussed in the article. Since the calculations are unavailable to me, and since I wouldn’t have time to figure them out for myself, and since even if I did it’s been a long time since I took stats and I’d probably mess it up, I don’t have an opinion, really. Rifles and shotguns may be a lower risk, but, according to Kellerman, any gun is a greater risk than no gun.

There’s other data that indicates that guns are less than helpful for protection. The tiny proportion of firearm homicide that are legally justified-- and this in spite of gun laws becoming weaker-- that alone tells me that guns are more likely to be used for murder than self defense.

Search Google News and, as you can see from the links above in post 79, it is depressingly easy to find people, particularly women and children, killed in or around a home with a gun. Legally justifiable homicides are not. Some will claim that there is a media conspiracy keeping stories about heroic gun owners protecting their homes out of circulation. A simpler explanation, and one that matches the available data, is that there simply aren’t that many when compared to firearm deaths stemming from domestic disputes.

Also, there are studies that back up Kellerman. There’s one by Dahlberg, Ikeda and Kresnow, from 2004:

Results show that regardless of storage practice, type of gun, or number of firearms in the home, having a gun in the home was associated with an increased risk of firearm homicide and firearm suicide in the home.

Guns in the home and risk of a violent death in the home: findings from a...

Kellerman cites Cummings P, Koepsell TD, Grossman DC, Savarino J, Thompson RS, 1997 as generally consistent with his 1993 findings.

Correspondence -- NEJM 1998; 339: 928-929 -- September 24, 1998

[Kable]

@Dave_Hartwick

The question about alcohol that you just asked was discussed in the article.

What was their answer?

The uncontrolled risk you see for shotguns and rifles possibly turned out to be statistically insignificant, a concept also discussed in the article. Since the calculations are unavailable to me, and since I wouldn’t have time to figure them out for myself, and since even if I did it’s been a long time since I took stats and I’d probably mess it up, I don’t have an opinion, really. Rifles and shotguns may be a lower risk, but, according to Kellerman, any gun is a greater risk than no gun.

So you would surmise that all of that risk was due to handguns and none of that risk to rifles and shotguns? And the risk of handguns is similar to having just one person in your home is not a teetotaler?

Out of curiosity, have you actually read the Kellerman study?

[Dave_Hartwick]

@Kable

What was their answer?

That alcohol makes you taller, safer, and better looking.

So you would surmise that all of that risk was due to handguns and none of that risk to rifles and shotguns?

No.

And the risk of handguns is similar to having just one person in your home is not a teetotaler?

Actually, it’s exactly the same as annoying people in your home by missing the point repeatedly and not reading an article you said you did, both leading causes of firearm homicides.

Out of curiosity, have you actually read the Kellerman study?

No.

[Kable]

Dave I’m almost ready to rest my case. However, based on the Kellerman study that you like to talk about but have not read. Why do you think rifles and shotguns are a risk factor for homicide? We both know that Kellerman only found a negative association with their presence.

Regarding the alcohol, your response is a bit cryptic. Are you agreeing with me now that owning a handgun is of roughly equal risk for homicide as just anyone in the home sometime drinking alcohol?

[Dave_Hartwick]

@Kable

Dave I’m almost ready to rest my case. However, based on the Kellerman study that you like to talk about but have not read. Why do you think rifles and shotguns are a risk factor for homicide? We both know that Kellerman only found a negative association with their presence.

Regarding the alcohol, your response is a bit cryptic. Are you agreeing with me now that owning a handgun is of roughly equal risk for homicide as just anyone in the home sometime drinking alcohol?

The answer for your alcohol question is in the link that you posted a couple days ago. Go read it again.

As I said, the rifle and shotgun risks you’re on about are in the uncontrolled table only. I gave my best guess as to why they’re lumped in with all guns, but I don’t really know. You seem to be saying that you read the study which might say why, but seeing how you can’t find a paragraph in a short article, I’m not holding onto hope.