If I’m reading the maps correctly, it looks as if the fire burned south of our house… we hope, anyways. We won’t know until we can go home; no idea when that will be. We were kind of hoping that we might be able to go home tonight, but it’s beginning to look unlikely at the moment.
My best friend was evacuated from Scripps Ranch this afternoon. Her family had gathered at her house in Scripps Ranch; now they’re heading to Mission Bay to ride it out.
The locals know this already, but San Diego neighborhoods are separated by a maze of canyons, all full of tinder-dry vegetation. Once ignition occurs, fires have a ready-made path, with the winds to propel them toward the next housing development.
In 2003, we knew that there was a fire in the backcountry, but it was 15 miles away. Three hours later, houses were burning on the other side of Lake Miramar. It’s a very scary feeling when all you can see over the next ridge is roiling black smoke. I hope everyone is okay.
Wildland fire season in America generally begins in April/May in Alaska. As the seasons progress, the potential for wildland fire moves south. Unofficially, it ends in October/November in Southern California and the American Southeast. I say unofficially, because a wildland fire is never declared “out” until a season-ending event, that being substantial snowfall and/or heavy and sustained rains.
However, much of America has been in drought for more than six to seven years (the media is just hearing this now.). Nothing like Australian droughts (and the bad one you are experiencing now).
It’s only a matter of time before a series of close wildland fires have the potential to combine. Along with the right amount of low humidities, winds, drought-stricken land and warm to hot temperatures, we could have the Perfect Storm, with thousands of structures lost and hundreds of thousands potentially homeless.
Unfortunately, it looks to be happening right now.
Mom’s house is in Solana Beach right on the San Elijo lagoon (on the hill above it.) She tends to worry more than is justified most of the time but according to her there is an “excellent chance” that her house is going to burn. Can a local tell me how true this is?
Well, ash was falling like rain at the Solana Beach train station at eight o’clock this morning, and the area is under an “advisory evacuation” now. I’d say the chances of burning are small, but not zero. If I were your mom, I’d have the car packed just in case, but I think she’s probably all right. The news is just saying 500 homes and 100 businesses destroyed as of a few hours ago.
Well, substantial snowfalls and heavy, sustained rains simply don’t happen in San Diego, so I’d say you’re at least a little off there.
Hard to say, but again, Solana Beach has been on a voluntary evacuation all day. Clearly, someone in power agrees with her.
The more important question is this: Why is she worrying and not packing? ETA: Packing as a precaution, I mean. Not necessarily running out of the house right now or anything–she’ll get a mandatory evacuation command with plenty of time to spare if it’s necessary.
Actually, I’m not. Without a season-ending event, the declaration will have to come when the entire perimeter of a fire is contained, and everything is cool to bare hands inside the perimeter.
Thanks for the update.
I mentioned upthread that she’s already packed and has been at my sister’s in L.A. since this afternoon. She said that it was surreal packing up, hugging her neighbors of twenty years and driving off. When she left visibility at the house was like ten feet because of the smoke.
It basically does not rain here (southern California) from about February or March till about December or November. So this is about as dry as it gets. Now we are getting the Santa Ana winds which blow from east to west instead of the usual west to east. East from San Diego and LA is desert so they are hot dry winds. The big fires in San Diego a few years ago occurred under similar conditions. I think the big thing is that the strong east to west winds are needed to keep things dry and to force the fires into populated areas.
Other parts of the south west have fire season more in the summer. You just don’t hear news about other fires since they burn in areas without the big populations. It was very windy today in the areas that are evacuating.
I evacuated from Scripps Ranch earlier today and now am in Solana Beach. There are mandatory evacuations now, but they hit just south of here. Oddly enough the Del Mar Racetrack/Fairgrounds is a big evacuation center and it’s right in the middle of the evacuation area just announced. The news is being annoyingly vague about that. I think I’ll be safe from flames here, but the smoke is something awful.
This is my first post so apologies if it looks all wrong.
To all the guys and girls in the direct line of fire - keep faith all will be well.
Our fire season is still a while away and after 2006 and 2003 fires, hopefully we have a quiet summer!
Once again good luck to all those affected and spare a thought to the firees risking their lives to make your’s better
Myself, my parents, my two cats and my giant african spurred tortoise just evacuated from Del Mar. Hopefully my house will be spared. If I lose my collection of 80’s video games I’ll slit my wrists.
I just read this article in the Deseret Morning News. Two things stick out for me:
[ol][li]One fire was set. Apparently the only death so far in the current rash of fires was not connected with that. This doesn’t mean that the arsonist is out of the woods, so to speak. There’s still plenty of chance for someone to die and then the arsonist will have “graduated” to murderer. I just heard on the news a few minutes ago that some firefighters are hospitalized in critical condition. I didn’t hear which fire they were fighting.[/li]
[li]People are ignoring the evacuation orders. A fire boss (that’s the term used in the article) said of the evacuees:[/li]
[/ol]
Did you catch that? Sticking around because you don’t feel like leaving does not help the effort to put out the fire!
Full disclosure: My sister’s son is a professional firefighter back in the US. I really hope he doesn’t find himself in a situation where he loses his life because some morons can’t be bothered to leave because “this is my home.” I also hope he doesn’t lose his life because of some firebug.
Missed the edit window, so here’s an addendum.
For the morons who refuse to evacuate: Yes, I realize it’s your home. I also realize that you just might manage to save a house or two by sticking around. What you fail to understand is that your presence there might cost someone else their life. Pay up your insurance and get out of Dodge!
I think that’s a misconception. San Diego often has temperatures in the 40s in November, and last year in April–there was hail during the international baseball championship. And it depends on where you are in the city/county. The coast is very different from the inland areas. San Diego County has more different micro climates than any other county in the nation.
I lived in Borrego Springs during the Cedar fire of '03, and the mountain town of Julian was evacuated down to us.
My parents evacuated from their Escondido home yesterday morning and are staying with my half-sister in Vista just now. I wish there were some way to get more accurate information of where the fire is just now. My mom says she expects they will lose the house. My father is more sanguine. It’s not so much the house, as they’ve been there less than ten years. It’s more the contents - the family pictures, my father’s Navy memorabilia, and such.
It’s getting hard for me to focus on the work I need to be doing. I wish I could be out there to help.
{{{Hugs phouka}}}
Let us know if there’s anything we can do to help out here.
Unlike the cedar fire the location and winds are not blowing smoke over my house. So we are packed with relatives from north county escaping the smoke. Here in Clairemont (just north of mission bay across the bay from Sea World) there is just a little haze and smoke smell in the air.
gazpacho, that’s where I live too, and it’s really weird. Sky was blue this morning, and it hardly smelled of smoke.
Now I’m at work near UTC and the air is brown and gross.
I work in Sorrento Valley. We were told to not to come into the office and work from home yesterday and today.