The reason we supported Saddam back in the '80s was that he represented, overall, a secular rule to balance out the region. However, by returning Iraq to democracy, we are setting it adrift in the ocean with no paddles. What happens if extremist Muslims win the elections and turn against us? Will we end up fighting the government we fought to install? What outcome will we accept from the elections - will we truly let Iraq choose its path, or will we only allow the people we want to be their leaders?
In short, we’ve hit the hornet’s nest and stood there waiting for them to be grateful. In the long term, giving them democracy may be the biggest mistake; do we assume they will cooperate, or will we make them cooperate?
Is it possible? Sure. Likely? No (but you didn’t ask that). Do we want it? Certainly we do for a variety of reasons from the political to propaganda. Remember there are various definitions of ‘Democracy’ though, not all of them exactly on our model here in the US.
We supported Saddam in the '80’s because he was fighting Iran…and thats something we wanted (at the time) to encourage. In addition, we didn’t want Saddam to form too close a relationship with the USSR, so we wanted to keep our own hand in. I think Saddam’s ‘secular rule’ only tangentially factored into it.
What happens if extremist Muslims win the election (well, they probably won’t win THIS election, but eventually)? Then we will have to cross that bridge when it happens and woe unto the Iraqi’s…one needs only look to Iran to see how such a government will most likely work out for them. Will we end up fighting them? Doubtful…why would we (necessarily)?
I don’t think we are waiting for them to be grateful…we are waiting for them to see where their best interests lie (whatever those are) and to take a stand and come down off the fence and FIGHT for them. Perhaps they never will…in which case they will get whatever the strongest in their country tells them they can have, be that the US or the insurgents.