Democratic Primary World Cup

Politics & Elections
21

Second Round Results

Group A
Joe Biden over Tulsi Gabbard 49-7
Beto O’Rourke over John Delaney 43-12

Group B
Amy Klobuchar over Bernie Sanders 36-22
Cory Booker over Jay Inslee 30-24

Group C
Pete Buttigieg over Steve Bullock 43-13
John Hickenlooper over Andrew Yang 39-15

Group D
Kamala Harris over Kirsten Gillibrand 46-11
Elizabeth Warren over Julian Castro 45-12
Standings

Group A

  1. Beto O’Rourke, 2-0 matches, 98 votes total
  2. Joe Biden, 2-0, 92
  3. John Delaney, 0-2, 23
  4. Tulsi Gabbard, 0-2, 22

Group B

  1. Amy Klobuchar, 2-0 matches, 72 votes total
  2. Jay Inslee, 1-1, 62
  3. Cory Booker, 1-1, 56
  4. Bernie Sanders, 0-2, 45

Group C

  1. Pete Buttigieg, 2-0 matches, 97 votes total
  2. John Hickenlooper, 1-1, 62
  3. Steve Bullock, 1-1, 47
  4. Andrew Yang, 0-2, 30

Group D

  1. Kamala Harris, 2-0 matches, 97 votes total
  2. Elizabeth Warren, 2-0, 96
  3. Kirsten Gillibrand, 0-2, 24
  4. Julian Castro, 0-2, 22
22

The Third Round is the last of the group stage. After this, the top two of each group will go into the single elimination stage.

23

So who’s in and who’s out?

In the A and D groups, we’ve got two candidates each at 2-0, and the other two at 0-2. Nothing in the last round can change who’s in the top 2, so Biden, Beto, Harris, and Warren all move on.

In group C, Buttigieg is trouncing Yang, so he’ll finish this round 3-0 and move on. Meanwhile, Hickenlooper and Bullock are dueling for second place, with Hickenlooper currently ahead 16-10. Unless Bullock overtakes him, he’ll be the other group C survivor.

Group B is interesting, because we could have Sanders at 0-3 and everyone else at 2-1, or Klobuchar at 3-0 and everyone else at 1-2, both of which would result in tiebreakers coming into play.

What we know is that Klobuchar’s 16-point edge over Booker going into this round, and Inslee’s 17-point edge over Sanders, mean that Klobuchar is almost certainly in, and Sanders is almost certainly out, even should they find themselves in a 3-way tie.

So the last slot comes down to Inslee v. Booker, who aren’t playing each other. So if one wins and the other loses, that would settle it. Inslee’s currently up by 6 over Klobuchar, while Booker’s only up by 1 over Sanders, so chances that Booker will win while Inslee loses are looking kinda slim.

And if they have the same W-L record, Inslee went into this round with 6 more points than Booker, and he’s +2 over Booker in this round, so it would take quite a push for Booker to knock Inslee off. So while it’s not a done deal, Inslee’s got the inside track for that last slot.

24

Third Round Results

Group A
Joe Biden over Beto O’Rourke 32-23
John Delaney over Tulsi Gabbard 39-12

Group B
Cory Booker over Bernie Sanders 33-23
Jay Inslee over Amy Klobuchar 29-25

Group C
Pete Buttigieg over Andrew Yang 49-5
John Hickenlooper over Steve Bullock 34-14

Group D
Elizabeth Warren over Kamala Harris 30-25
Kirsten Gillibrand over Julian Castro 29-24

Standings

Group A

  1. Joe Biden, 3-0 matches, 124 votes total
  2. Beto O’Rourke, 2-1, 121
  3. John Delaney, 1-2, 62
  4. Tulsi Gabbard, 0-3, 34

Group B

  1. Amy Klobuchar, 2-1 matches, 97 votes total
  2. Jay Inslee, 2-1, 91
  3. Cory Booker, 2-1, 89
  4. Bernie Sanders, 0-3, 68

Group C

  1. Pete Buttigieg, 3-0 matches, 146 votes total
  2. John Hickenlooper, 2-1, 96
  3. Steve Bullock, 1-2, 61
  4. Andrew Yang, 0-3, 35

Group D

  1. Elizabeth Warren, 3-0 matches, 126 votes total
  2. Kamala Harris, 2-1, 122
  3. Kirsten Gillibrand, 1-2, 53
  4. Julian Castro, 0-3, 46
25

We now begin the single elimination phase, seeded based on the group phase results. Quarter-final poll is here.

26

I’m surprised Sanders went 0-3. I know there are a lot of folks who dislike him, but there are a lot who like him, too. I guess he’s just polarizing enough that everyone had him at (or close to) either first place or last place, and the last-placers were more numerous in the polls.

27

Yes. The one-vs-one format is not kind to polarizing candidates, who are first or last for most voters, as many people will vote against them. But the format is very helpful to those who are second or third choice for many people, because they will win most match-ups.

On the other hand, imagine a tournament format where the whole list is voted on at once. After each round, the bottom half of the candidate list is eliminated. The polarizing candidate will do well with dedicated support, at least until the opposition consolidates (if it happens at all).

And using approval voting or ranked voting can change things as well.

28

Quarter-Final Results

Joe Biden over Jay Inslee 35-25
Elizabeth Warren over John Hickenlooper 41-19
Kamala Harris over Pete Buttigieg 37-21
Amy Klobuchar over Beto O’Rourke 41-18

29

The semi-final poll is open.

30

[Argument Clinic]
No, it isn’t.
[/Argument Clinic]

31

With our semi results in, the final is now open.

Elizabeth Warren over Joe Biden 31-25
Kamala Harris over Amy Klobuchar 39-15

Final!

32

Our final results are in with Elizabeth Warren getting 22 votes and Kamala Harris getting 17. Thank you, everyone for participating!