Democratic Primary World Cup

Politics & Elections
1

A few months ago we had a fun March Madness Style set of polls to see how the different candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination faired here. I’d like to run something similar, but this time in the style of the World Cup, which will be starting up in a couple weeks. This thread will be the main thread to collect results and for commentary. Match-up polls will be held as separate threads.

Polling Question:
If you were to vote in the Democratic Party presidential primary today with only these two candidates as options, who would you vote for?
Candidate X
Candidate Y
Abstain

For seeding, I am using the ordering from PredictIt as an estimate of the likelihood of each candidate winning the nomination. The seeding will be

  1. Joe Biden
  2. Bernie Sanders
  3. Pete Buttigieg
  4. Kamala Harris
  5. Elizabeth Warren
  6. Andrew Yang
  7. Cory Booker
  8. Beto O’Rourke
  9. Tulsi Gabbard
  10. Amy Klobuchar
  11. Steve Bullock
  12. Kirsten Gillibrand
  13. Julian Castro
  14. John Hickenlooper
  15. Jay Inslee
  16. John Delaney

Following the World Cup method of round-robin group play before single elimination, the seeded groups are
Group A

  1. Joe Biden
  2. Beto O’Rourke
  3. Tulsi Gabbard
  4. John Delaney

Group B
2. Bernie Sanders
7. Cory Booker
10. Amy Klobuchar
15. Jay Inslee

Group C
3. Pete Buttigieg
6. Andrew Yang
11. Steve Bullock
14. John Hickenlooper

Group D
4. Kamala Harris
5. Elizabeth Warren
12. Kirsten Gillibrand
13. Julian Castro

Each candidate will have a match-up against every other group member.

First Round Match-ups
1 vs 16: Joe Biden vs John Delaney
8 vs 9: Beto O’Rourke vs Tulsi Gabbard
2 vs 15: Bernie Sanders vs Jay Inslee
7 vs 10: Cory Booker vs Amy Klobuchar
3 vs 14: Pete Buttigieg vs John Hickenlooper
6 vs 11: Andrew Yang vs Steve Bullock
4 vs 13: Kamala Harris vs Julian Castro
5 vs 12: Elizabeth Warren vs Kirsten Gillibrand

Second Round Match-ups
1 vs 9: Joe Biden vs Tulsi Gabbard
8 vs 16: Beto O’Rourke vs John Delaney
2 vs 10: Bernie Sanders vs Amy Klobuchar
7 vs 15: Cory Booker vs Jay Inslee
3 vs 11: Pete Buttigieg vs Steve Bullock
6 vs 14: Andrew Yang vs John Hickenlooper
4 vs 12: Kamala Harris vs Kirsten Gillibrand
5 vs 13: Elizabeth Warren vs Julian Castro

Third Round Match-ups
1 vs 8: Joe Biden vs Beto O’Rourke
9 vs 16: Tulsi Gabbard vs John Delaney
2 vs 7: Bernie Sanders vs Cory Booker
10 vs 15: Amy Klobuchar vs Jay Inslee
3 vs 6: Pete Buttigieg vs Andrew Yang
11 vs 14: Steve Bullock vs John Hickenlooper
4 vs 5: Kamala Harris vs Elizabeth Warren
12 vs 13: Kirsten Gillibrand vs Julian Castro

Within each group, candidates will be ranked by the number of match-ups won. Tie-breaker will be most votes totalled over all match-ups. The winner and runner-up of each group will advance to the single-elimination stage.

Fourth Round Match-ups
Group-A-Winner vs Group-B-Runner-Up
Group-B-Winner vs Group-A-Runner-Up
Group-C-Winner vs Group-D-Runner-Up
Group-D-Winner vs Group-C-Runner-Up

Fifth Round Match-ups
(Winner of AW vs BR) vs (Winner of DW vs CR)
(Winner of BW vs AR) vs (Winner of CW vs DR)

Sixth Round Match
Winners of Fifth Round

I will wait to start the match-ups until later this week when there’s been time for commentary and approval from the forum’s moderation. While there are problems with any type of polling system, I think this one has some interesting match-ups, while giving each candidate a fair shot.

2

I’m voting Andrew Yang and Kirstin Gilibrand.
Edit: Oh OK I see. We’re supposed to vote in another thread later?

3

Which World Cup is starting soon? I know the Cricket World Cup starts soon, but it doesn’t use the same format as does football.

4

Women’s World Cup (football).

5

This seems cool. Go forth and be merry.

[/moderating]

6

Interesting idea. Is there any way to go forward with it that won’t result in dozens of new threads being started in the Elections forum in a very short time? I found that to be a big nuisance with the previous try.

7

He could start a poll with 32 options, paired by pair, allowing everyone to select multiple options. Everyone on their honor not to cheat.

8

I’ll back up Bone on this and say, “Go to it”.

I’ll likely run the Election thing next year again. But this one looks like a chore. Two things I say to that:

  1. Better you than me.
  2. Thanks for taking this on. We all appreciate it.
9

Sounds good. If it doesn’t work, then it could be started again with a different method.

10

No, it wasnt fun nor fair.

11

I considered that, but I see two problems. First, it dilutes the whole match up of one on one. Second, it’s too easy for an honest mistake. I’m willing to run the polls. They’ll fall of the front page quickly.

12

That’s enough threadshitting, Deth. There are other people in the world besides yourself.

13

First Round Polls

1 vs 16: Joe Biden vs John Delaney
8 vs 9: Beto O’Rourke vs Tulsi Gabbard
2 vs 15: Bernie Sanders vs Jay Inslee
7 vs 10: Cory Booker vs Amy Klobuchar
3 vs 14: Pete Buttigieg vs John Hickenlooper
6 vs 11: Andrew Yang vs Steve Bullock
4 vs 13: Kamala Harris vs Julian Castro
5 vs 12: Elizabeth Warren vs Kirsten Gillibrand

14

Yabbut, then they’d have to move the whole shootin’ match over to the Game Room…

15

{Yawn} Just as with the actual World Cup these days, wake me up when we get to the Final.

16

Can this contest legitimately be called a “World Cup” if it only has American participants? Surely it should be a “World Series”, or “World Series Cup”, or similar?

17

It is so named because the tournament format is styled after the Football World Cup that is going to be starting in about a week.

18

Responding to complaints raised here, maybe for future rounds it would be better to have a single thread for each round. Where the polls would be

  1. Joe Biden over John Delaney
  2. John Delaney over Joe Biden
  3. Beto O’Rourke over Tulsi Gabbard
  4. Tulsi Gabbard over Beto O’Rourke
    etc.

Allowing multiple votes.

This would serve the same purpose but not dominate the entire forum through three rounds of round-robin and a total of 31 threads.

19

First Round Results

Group A
Joe Biden over John Delaney 43-11
Beto O’Rourke over Tulsi Gabbard 55-15

Group B
Jay Inslee over Bernie Sanders 38-23
Amy Klobuchar over Cory Booker 36-26

Group C
Pete Buttigieg over John Hickenlooper 54-23
Steve Bullock over Andrew Yang 34-15

Group D
Kamala Harris over Julian Castro 51-10
Elizabeth Warren over Kirsten Gillibrand 51-13
Standings

Group A

  1. Beto O’Rourke, 1-0 matches, 55 votes total
  2. Joe Biden, 1-0, 43
  3. Tulsi Gabbard, 0-1, 15
  4. John Delaney, 0-1, 11

Group B

  1. Jay Inslee, 1-0 matches, 38 votes total
  2. Amy Klobuchar, 1-0, 36
  3. Cory Booker, 0-1, 26
  4. Bernie Sanders, 0-1, 23

Group C

  1. Pete Buttigieg, 1-0 matches, 54 votes total
  2. Steve Bullock, 1-0, 34
  3. John Hickenlooper, 0-1, 23
  4. Andrew Yang, 0-1, 15

Group D
1T. Elizabeth Warren, 1-0 matches, 51 votes total
1T. Kamala Harris, 1-0, 51
3. Kirsten Gillibrand, 0-1, 13
4. Julian Castro, 0-1, 10

20

Combined Second Round.

If this is comprehensible, I’ll stick with the combined format. Otherwise back to the individual polls.