does anyone have some good demographic charts for how people voted?
this oneis pretty ok, percentages get confusing fast.
what number of white people voted for romney?
what number of white people voted for Obama?
how did the unemployed vote?
i really wish i could find the unemployment vote. because if romney and GOP really got through, they should have convinced the unemployed a vote for romney was a vote for jobs.
but now they have lost, so they are saying everyone just voted for remaining lazy and receiving handouts. i’d like to see the actual numbers how the vote broke down.
The Urban/Rural divide is so pronounced that I wonder if that makes up much of the red state/blue state division, red states just being those with large rural components.
If the voting age were still 21, the election would have been much closer.
Or if the 18-21 age group were still as apathetic and non-voting as they were just 10-15 years ago.
Perhaps this is an effect of the success of the Obama ‘ground game’, especially the part targeted at young voters via electronic/online channels.
Or perhaps the great rise in the cost of college tuition, and the lack of job openings after graduation is making young people pay more attention to voting.
Actually, one of the interesting things about that poll is that while there was certainly a significant effect of income on how people voted, the effect of religion seems to be even more pronounced. E.g.: those who attend services weekly or more went 59%-39% for Romney while those who never attend went 62%-34% for Obama. White protestants went 69%-30% for Romney. White born again Christians (a quarter of the voters) went a whopping 78%-21% for Romney while everyone else voted 60%-37% for Obama!
That last one is pretty incredible: Basically, it is a complete landslide for Romney among White born-Again Christians and a big landslide for Obama amongst everyone else!
I know! And this makes no sense, since those same white born-again Christians think that Mormons are at best non-Christian and at worst devil worshipers. Like I said, they cared until the Republican Party (or Fox News) told them not to care.
The gender/race breakdown is most fascinating to me. Romney actually won white women by 8 points but lost women in total by 11.
And according to that CNN data, those who thought unemployment was the biggest economic concern to people like them went to Obama by 10 points. Obviously, they weren’t all unemployed, but that’s probably as good an indicator of how the unemployed voted as we can find.
i found data on how the less than 15k a year group voted in the 08 election, and it suggests the very poor and unemployed do not vote at all. that is to say around half abstained (which they are a very fractional proportion of the voting-age citizens anyway, so the leftover portion who did vote is that much more diminished).
according to the 08 election, most vote democrat if they vote at all, something like 60-40. according to another cite, romney held about 39% of these people when polled back around october. i cannot as of yet find any exit polling for this particular stat for this election, but everything seems to indicate about the same as 08, roughly 60-40 and the same estimated level of voter turn out for that demo.
in summary: if you count the absolute total of all people on every kind of TANF and SS and all else do not make up a large enough bloc to win anyone the election just by themselves, but even then–not all are voting eligible, and even then, a huge chunk won’t vote anyway.. the majority of SS folk voted for Romney, and at least a quarter of participating unemployed/extremely impoverished voters voted for Romney. it would at least appear that dependency on government teets was not the deciding factor in this election.
i’m not great with stats, so if i misjudge all this, feel free to help me out.
CNN used to have amazing exit polls. This time they had pretty basic ones. That sucks, but I heard due to the bad economy exit polls for 2012 aren’t going to be very good because people didn’t want to support them.
Even among the exit polls, they are misleading in a way. For example on a national level whites supported Obama by 20 points. But a lot of that depends on geography. I think back in 2008 whites in the deep south supported McCain by 80 points. In the rest of the south it was a 30-40 point margin. In much of the rest of the country the white support was only mildly higher for the GOP. In the northeast or the west coast the white support went for Obama. I’m assuming the same holds for 2012 (the white votes in Vermont are not the same as the white votes in Alabama). Rural whites in the northeast went for Obama, rural whites in the south or midwest went republican. You can’t tell just from national polls.
It doesn’t make no sense. You’re voting for President, not for Pope or whatever. Somebody can say, “Well, I think this guy’s religion is wrong, but I agree with him on political issues and think he’d make a better President.”