You think it’s “unlikely, but possible” for the Dems to take the Senate. Are you open to the possibility (even if you judge it unlikely) that they fail to take the House? Or do you think that’s in the realm of the impossible? I only ask because your last sentence makes it sound like you believe even if the Dems have a particularly bad night, they’ll still take over the House.
There’s a particularly bad night, and then there’s a really horrible night. It is more likely than not that the Democrats will take the House, but nothing is guaranteed.
This is a very good joke. Bravo.
No, I can’t discount the possibility of the Republicans keeping the House. For one thing, they control that chamber by a wide margin, so the reality is that the Dems need a strong performance. I guess maybe a better way of putting it is that if the Dems perform well but not as well as expected, then they’ll just barely take the House.
There’s still a chance Republicans reverse the tide. In fact Tuesday was a good night for the GOP - one of their best in a while. Even though those were only primaries, they put forward some strong general election candidates who will be difficult to defeat.
What’s happening in the generic tracker currently is where I start to get more concerned. The level of GOP support is not moving up but as the races are more the specific D candidate, D support is dropping. We will be starting to see the impact of switching to LV screens soon too.
The tracker is now under 5 and while going down to 6 (and then returning to the mean) is something it had done many times, under 5 is not.
November is an uncomfortably long time away.
Reuters’ latest has the Republicans in the lead.
I guess that means that 38.1% of registered voters are exactly as stupid and credulous as I thought they were.
Probably higher since I know for a fact there’s a decent pile of stupid and credulous people who vote Dem.
Could the Republicans benefit from something similar to the Bradley effect?
First off, no one benefits from the supposed Bradley effect. It describes a possible reason polls are off. Second, it doesn’t explain the current narrowing of poll numbers.
People are sick of hearing about it so they blame us for telling them.
David Rothschild’s Predictwise shows the present probability of a Democratic House as 59% compared with the 70% high-water mark on April 11.
The November 2016 tragedy can be blamed on people thinking Trump was a joke with no chance. If the GOP retains control after this November I think we can finally admit that the average American voter is getting the government he deserves.
Sure, but nowhere near the numbers found in the Party of Stupid.
Yeah, what’s it feel like to lose to the Party of Stupid? Congress? Governors? President? Supreme Court? Dominated by the Party of Stupid. What does that make the dimwitocrats?
The thinking of many D’s is, “Our side is right, the other side is wrong, and if voters vote for the other side, then they must be blind to our side’s virtues and/or the other side’s flaws.”
This statement could apply to “many” adherents of literally any philosophy, religion, and political party that humans have ever held.
BTW, octopus, have you presented your views on “Trump University”? It’s hard to know how to engage you without a sense of your understanding of right and wrong.
From my understanding Trump U seems to have been a scam. Our regulatory agencies and courts need more teeth because fraudulent activity seems to be insufficient yet deterred.
And was that scam endorsed by the present head of state?
I think most people know Trump is shady.