I’m in agreement with Nate Silver in the belief that there’s just too much uncertainty right now.
But, if you go with history, it seems highly likely that the Democrats are going to pick up seats in the House. “How many” is the question, but we can probably assume that the Democrats have the wind at their backs.
If I were a GOP pollster, I’d be concerned about the lack of ‘Oomph’ over tax reform, and I’ve sometimes wondered whether the GOP insiders truly believed it would be a winner in the court of public opinion. I’ve suspected that tax reform was done more to please their political campaign underwriters.
We’re also getting past the honeymoon phase of the Trump administration, and past the point at which he can take credit for things that were quietly accomplished before he arrived in Washington. His decisions, and his indecision, are going to have more and more consequences.
In the cold blue light of realpolitik, wherein humanity exists only as units of political power, this is gleeful and chucklesome. Il Douche has managed to shoot himself in the foot while simultaneously stepping on his own dick.
But people will suffer, they already are, if only from the worry and anxiety over what may happen, and likely will. Then they will suffer more, and some will die. Needlessly. In service to an outdated form of conservatism and its ideological obsession with “socialized medicine”. Father, forgive them if you can, but they know Goddamn! well what they do.
The stupidity of this move is incredible. They are making the private sector part of the law fail and keeping the single payer aspect. Are they trying to make single payer a reality for Democrats?
It is even more stupid when one considers that one big talking point from the right, that the ACA was going to prevent economic growth, is non operative.
But there is one issue that Trump and the Republicans forget, that several small business and start-ups that are part of the current growth are there thanks to the ACA.
What will happen then is not only the loss of many small businesses and start-ups, but the return of more job lock. There is really less freedom when your health care does depend on the job you have and that gets worse when there are pre-existing conditions.
The Senate is now, and has been, a long shot; the Dems would do well not to actually lose ground in the Senate.
The real focus should be on winning the House. For one thing, the House has the power of the purse. But it would thwart the partisan nuttery of David Nunes and people like the soon-to-retire Trey Gowdy.
Winning the House and not winning the Senate would also hopefully make the Democrats see the futility in waging a holy war for Trump’s impeachment, which could backfire in 2020. A narrow House victory is all that the country really needs for right now.
Yeah–I was gobsmacked when I saw this, although I shouldn’t’ve been. The single best way to make ACA popular will be to repeal it–and if that law is martyred in the service of partisanship, what a powerful fucking martyr it’s gonna be.
Trying to find the other perspective here … and here’s a quote from a Politico articleabout this.
Remember that many voters are low information voters. September/October new premiums are released with (to no small degree because of the uncertainty this move introduces) sky high increases. The fact that the increases being so sky high is due to GOP undermining will be lost on many. In districts that the base needs to be revved the sales pitch will be that these rates are the result of Obamacare and they are still fighting to get rid of it.
Nah. I’m not buying it myself. But the impact at midterm time is going to mostly be those rate increases. The actual removal of the pre-existing conditions and already unenforcible individual mandate clauses will be kicked down the road with appeals until well after November. At that point less severely conservative GOP critters can afford to piss off one or the other side (depending on their district) and vote to fix it with changes to law or to support the destruction of law’s functionality … which longer term may be the path to single payor.
As to Predictwise … hard for me to understand the betting market mentality. Not a major move but again as the tracker moves one way the betting market moves the other. It seems to me that the gambling crowdsource pretty much discounts the polls at this point and is responding to something else that is either there or not there in the news cycles that does not drive the polls the same way
Re: the Politico article, I just wonder about the identity of the real constituency that Republicans are trying to impress by bringing Obamacare back into the discussion. The Republicans tried to kill Obamacare, and it seems to me that they’ve certainly wounded it by effectively repealing enforcement of the insurance mandate. I get that there are low information voters, but they’ve gotten much of what they’ve wanted over the past 18 months politically. It seems that the wiser strategy for Republicans would be to take their gradually improving image, hope that Trump doesn’t fire Mueller, Rosenstein, and Sessions at the same, and see where things lead in November.
The status quo, with preexisting conditions covered but no mandate, is popular among the people but a death sentence for insurance companies. The Republicans are just looking out for the interests of their real constituents, here.
I’ve been wondering if that factors in the issue that the percentage of people who identify as Republican has fallen. Therefore, you are polling the people remaining in the party, and losing the people who were disgusted enough with Trump to change affiliation.
Between 2016 and 2017 GOP party ID dropped 3 points, down to 26%, tied for as low as it has been. Independent ID went up 3 points, to 37%, as high as it’s ever been. Democratic ID stayed the same at 33%, just off its 2015 low of 32%.
It’s consistent with a long term trend of more calling themselves “independent” but put another way a bit more than 10% of those who had identified as GOP moved into the independent column over the year.
Including leaners it does not look quite as bad for GOP ID- the drop for the GOP+lean was only 2 points, from 44 to 42%, with those 2 points moving the D+lean side from 48 to 50%. The highest they’ve ever seen the D+lean side has been 51%.
Looking at the breakouts it seems that the biggest switch has been among college grads, going from the 15 point D/leaner advantage to a 22 point one. And there was some increase in R/leaner identification by White nonHispanic evangelical Protestants, from a R+56 to R+59.
