In part, I’m sure that they do. I think it’s also hand-in-hand with the fact that being a Christian is no longer the default/assumed condition in much of American society, and they feel that the ability to publicly act on their faith is now being quashed (for example, the baker who refused to make a cake for a same-sex wedding).
I wonder how effective a Trump attempt to blackmail the R party with a 3rd party run would be?
That’d be classic Trump mobster/grifter: Nice shot at an R presidency you’ve got there. Be a shame if something happened to it.
Yeah, that’s why I haven’t bought into the “DeSantis can’t possibly win” camp.
But I think the “DeSantis will definitely be POTUS in 2025” declaration is sillier. I think all of the signs make that unlikely. There isn’t strong support for anyone on the right (DeSantis or Trump), the right showed last year that they are not strong, and Biden doesn’t generate the hate that someone like Trump or Clinton (or even Obama) did to generate opposition.
I do agree that it is definitely not impossible though. I’m absolutely not confident about anything anymore.
They gained seats in both houses.
What you say is true. But I think a huge part of what the president does is being CEO of the country: selling policies and generally trying to make people feel OK about things (analogous to the CEO of a country). Trump rejected this role almost completely and, instead, regularly, gratuitously, and erratically stirred shit up. (Unlike Hitler, he was not a careful and methodical propagandist.)
Yes, they want a Hitler. They would literally prefer a dictator who puts undesirables in camps–or worse. Trump didn’t have the discipline or skills to get there, and I actually think that DeSantis isn’t evil enough to go there. He’s a bully and a dick and quite toxic in his own right, but I’m not certain he can even sustain his Trump impression throughout the primary season.
From your lips to FSM’s ears.
https://www.spaghettimonster.org/about/
Well… we’ve been through Trump and we’re not as naive as we were then. We thought the frickin’ media would do their job, and we didn’t know how many Americans were modern-day nazis. So I definitely try to integrate these lessons into any analysis or speculation I offer here.
The thing is, now that the country has been through Trump Trauma and some of us have learned some lessons, that changes the prospects of anyone who would try to be the dictator that Trump, ultimately, couldn’t become. Or anyone who just tries to get elected president using the same tricks. We are not going to let anyone storm the cabin of an airplane and man the controls any more, and we’re not going to let someone like Trump run for president any more without screaming, “Trump redux! National emergency!”
Thus, I don’t think a pure Trump emulator can get elected simply because he’s the “next Trump.” Those who think that that’s a path for DeSantis are fighting the last war, so to speak.
I think DeSantis can win the nomination–but he can’t win as Trump did in 2016. Trump was on fire when he got the nomination. His nazi base was ready to do anything to get their would-be Hitler elected. There’s no way that DeSantis can come out of the convention with the wind at his back like that. He has to face the God-Emperor Himself, after all.
I think his clearest path to winning is this: Trump drops out for whatever reason and gives DeSantis a full-throated, sincere endorsement and campaigns for him. That seems monumentally unlikely and wouldn’t get DeSantis anywhere close to 2016-level nazi enthusiasm, but, who knows, maybe 60% of that. Still pretty good.
He would nevertheless, I think, lose to Biden by a wide margin, but if Biden dies or is incapacitated, all bets are off. I think that there are other Democrats who could beat DeSantis, but Biden dropping out would be demoralizing and disorienting, especially if something happened unexpectedly.
That’s how it could happen. Democrats’ greatest weakness in 2024 is Biden’s age.
I think they would pay him off somehow. If they were smart, they would do that now and try to get him not to run at all. But they’re not smart.
I wish that were true. He certainly is a nice, moderate, experienced and competent. But I still see “Fuck Joe Biden” signs, and the like, everywhere. And I’m in the heart of a blue state.
Oh sure, but I’m not sure how much of that is fueled by real animosity and how much of it is just a popular right wing meme.
This blog agrees with me.
This article (a year old I will point out, long before the midterm elections) talks about the outrage but how it was something manufactured by right wing media, not something organic.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/593421-how-republicans-came-to-revel-hating-joe-biden/
An even older article suggests that Russians might have a hand in this.
https://www.newsweek.com/who-behind-internets-hatred-joe-biden-opinion-1609350
To me, this manufactured hatred is unlikely to resonate as much as the real thing. It’s not something to dismiss, but hatred that people repeat because they are told they are supposed to and because they are trying to fit in with their peers is not likely to push people to the polls.
Let me get this straight: your plan would be to pay Trump in exchange for him agreeing to do something?
I don’t think it’s so much as being manufactured as how long it’s been going on. After all, the hatred of Hillary was manufactured, but that started in 1993. So by 2016, it had metamorphosed into viceral hatred. Will only 4 years of manufactured Biden-hatred do the same. Probably not to the same extent.
Well, we thought Donald Trump didn’t have a chance in hell either. So much for that.
I agree they would try. And that sooner would be better for the party.
But Trump is good at that blackmail threat game. He can wait until the time of maximum advantage for himself and then hold the R party to hostage for the max payoff. For sure the better he does in early campaigning the more likely he is to a) have this plan in mind as at least one possible future move, and b) pull it off successfully if it appears he won’t win the nomination. It’s another version of the petulant schoolyard “If you won’t let me play I’ll just take your ball and go home.”
So far there’s been little evidence of any real action by Trump towards an actual campaign either as an R or as an I from the git-go.
Thanks. Glad it wasn’t just me that noticed the similarity.
You’d have to make sure he didn’t see a dime until the day after the 2024 election. And if he says anything during the entire campaign about the payoff, he forfeits it.
You have a really good point. Biden was the goofy guy who made a lot of gaffes and was the butt of jokes when he was vice president. The hate machine didn’t really start (that I know of) until he became the Democratic front-runner and then nominee for the 2020 election. The hate cake hasn’t had enough time in the oven, so to speak.
…what it might have done is push the margins enough to give his opponent a victory. It’s not guarantee though.
And back in 2016 I could imagine a thread very much like this one being written about Mr Donald Trump. In fact if I could be bothered digging deep enough I’d dig one up. Trump won’t win the nomination. Trump is a clown. Trump doesn’t have what it takes to win the presidency.
It isn’t just that Trump was a horrible human being. Trump was an extremist, who had a history of doing objectively bad things.
Yes: it was all out there in the open for Trump. PhillyGuy said it would be hard for the Democrats to successfully paint DeSantis as an extremist. But it actually wouldn’t be hard if you put a bit of effort into it. But you’ve got to take the gloves off. You can’t make the same mistakes as you did with Trump. Which was to normalise him. To effectively pretend like he was like every other candidate but a bit more quirky.
DeSantis isn’t “the sane” candidate next to Trump. He is an extremist and if he gets the presidency and if the Republicans take back the Senate then its all over for “the land of the free.” HB 999 was filed this week. It will:
I ask again: how hard would it be to paint this guy as an extremist? He’s literally ordering the state schools to teach his version of history, and put all the hiring decisions at universities into the hands of boards of trustees that are selected by the governor and his appointees. And this isn’t even the worst thing he has done.
The “Democrat machine” has been lead by a very privileged class of centrists who probably won’t even touch on this much if DeSantis gets the nomination because its about a “woke” topic. They will instead focus on the economy, the jobs, the middle class, law and order. The very reason why it will be hard for the “Democrats” to paint DeSantis as an extremist is because for many of them it simply doesn’t suit their agenda.
Its not about the Republican base. It’s not about moving the needle there. Because as you say: all Republicans care about is the “R” anymore.
Its about getting everyone else out to vote. Because this is an emergency. Its always going to be an emergency. With the right-block in control of the Supreme Court for at least a generation, if the Democrats lose the Senate and the Presidency its all over. Trump was an agent of chaos. He got into power and did a lot of damage but more importantly showed to many on the right that they didn’t have to hide the cruelty, the misogyny, the racism any more. They can do it right out in the open now. And if Trump doesn’t win the nomination and someone like DeSantis gets in, they will do the same amount of damage…except with more precision, and longer lasting consequences.
It isn’t about moving the needle with Republican voters. Its about moving the needle with Democrats, with people eligible to vote for the first time, with the disillusioned, with the people who have been disenfranchised. There are more people on this side of the equation than on the other side. Its about taking the gloves off and actually putting up a fight.
I agree with all of this, but I want to be more precise. I think it’s commonly accepted that 40% of voters will vote D and R reflexively, without giving it much more thought than that. So that leaves around 20% of voters who could swing things one way or the other - these are the voters that need to be focused on.
Additionally, where they live is critical, thanks to the Electoral College. Convincing centrist Republicans in Iowa to vote for Biden wont do any good - the state is going red anyway. However, centrist Republicans in the purple states can make a big difference in the overall outcome of the general election. I think this is one facet of what worked in 2020 - TFG spent a lot of time at friendly rallies in red states and did not work hard at all to get people over to his side. Hillary supposedly skipped over the “fly-over” states.
The strategy for the Democrats ought to be getting into Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia (plus any other state where it was close - maybe within 5 points) and spending a lot of time and money showing everyone there that what the Biden administration is doing is actually helping them live better and is working on their issues, and the Republicans are doing jack-sh!t to help them and are focused on the culture wars. They need to go on the offensive in these states, and play exceptional defense when the Fox propaganda machine gets cranking.
The Republicans (and DeSantis) know this as well - both teams are playing by the same rules in the same game - we have to be better than them, as sheer numbers wont be enough - we need more D voters in the right locations.
And in 2015-2016 even the Republicans understood this. Go back and read the stuff they said about Trump. Candidates have always dissed their opponents, just not in these terms. They were saying then all the things that later appear in the tell-all books from people in the administration. Very few events in all American political history beat the 180° turnaround by mainstream Republican politicians. Once he became the candidate, once he won, the ass-kissing was hyperbolically hypocritical beyond any similar time in politics. We saw the same after 1/6, when the first day or two saw constant criticism only to permanently flip within a week. They behaved as if Trump had blackmail files or were holding their families hostage.
Trump’s danger lies in this power to make others turn on their words and beliefs. I don’t remember anyone else in politics having this particular power. Does he still have it? He must or else they would let the flood of investigations sink him so that they can come into power.
DeSantis wants this power. He can win if he convinces the rest of the party that their careers are dead if they cross him. He has the type of smiling viciousness that leads to success. Republicans vote for politicians who hate what they hate. Nothing else matters. DeSantis hates. He is dangerous. The primaries will be a snakepit.
This is all true but is only one part of the story.
Of the 40% who will reflexively vote R and only R, in any given election anywhere between 1/4 and 1/2 of them won’t bother to vote. Ditto for the D’s. Among the 20% who could go either way, between 1/2 and 3/4ths don’t bother to vote.
You win by getting your faithful to turn out, NOT by changing people’s minds about who to vote for. All while not motivating the other side to turn out in even greater number.