Good points. All the more reason to put extra effort and resources in those swing states to ensure Democrats leverage the numbers advantage to capture those electors.
The last two elections have been literally coin flips, we could have easily had Clinton followed by Trump. Biden is going to lose voters, probably millions of them, because he is no longer following Trump but also four years older. DeSantis on the other hand has to contend with not having any of Trumps charisma and decades of celebrity behind him, plus the bigger issue of having to deal with Trump. There is zero chance that Trump falls in line if he loses the primaries, none, and no matter how much less popular he is and how much Republicans fall in line he WILL have a strong hold on more than enough of their base to completely sink anyone else.
How do you see that playing out?
i.e. Let’s assume arguendo that Trump make a real effort to win the R nomination. Does OK in a few states, poorly in others, etc. He’s clearly a competitive candidate, not a no-hoper. But when all is said and done he loses the nomination to e.g. DeSantis. Meanwhile most sane commentators, even right-leaning ones, agree the result was fair not corrupt.
So now what does petulant Donnie do to “… completely sink anyone else”?
Order all his syncophantic MAGAts to stay home and therefore hand the presidency and probably control of both houses of Congress to the Ds? Even if he chooses this very unlikely path, how many MAGAts will follow that particular suicide order? Having just been bombarded 24/7 for the last 6-12 months with the message that the Ds gaining power in 2024 spells the instant irrevocable end of the USA as they know it?
The R party will certainly wish that Trump would simply go home and shut up. For sure he won’t do that. But I really question how much his “troops” will follow orders the amount to political suicide for the RW cause. Even if Trump commands them all to vote R for congress and write-in for Trump for president would be pretty suicidal to the RW cause and be recognized by plenty of RW opinion leaders as such.
Exactly like this.
Very unlikely? this is 100% guaranteed exactly what he is going to do. He ALREADY did it in Georgia just because they refused to go along with his insanity.
I don’t know, but even if its less than 1% that is more than enough to completely destroy any chance they have. And my guess is that it will be significantly more than that.
MAGA morons have already shown they will stop listening to anyone not telling them what they already believe, and they believe what Donny says.
If it turns out this is truly as true as you say (and I’m not disagreeing with you), then Donny may yet turn out to be the best thing to happen to the Democrats since FDR and JFK.
Just that in typically Trumply fashion, he got there via a very weird route with tons of collateral damage and destroyed lives and reputations littering his F***ed up wake.
Don’t forget that a petulant Donnie completely tanked the Georgia elections after he lost, due to whining about how corrupt the election was and therefore votes don’t matter. He’s played this game before, he’s absolutely not above it. And people fall for it.
It just… doesn’t take that much. Biden won Wisconsin by 20k votes Georgia by 12k votes and Arizona by 10k votes, flip those and Trump wins again. I think a tweet by Trump saying elections are rigged and there is no point in voting LIKE HE ALREADY DID IN GEORGIA RUNOFFS flips at least ten times that.
You know, if DeSantis were to arrange for Trump’s lifeless corpse to be found floating in a mar or lago, that would solve several of the problems elucidated in this thread, and may not even be the most evil thing he will have done. Republicans remain unified, new conspiracy theories and fearmongering aplenty to motivate voters, Trump problem solved…
I’m not advocating murder, of course; just noting that DeSantis has a pretty good motive.
The next Knives Out mystery almost writes itself!
The ones who are loyal to Trump more than the Republican Party or even conservative causes.
Up to you how many of those you think there are.
Best of all, now that CSI:Miami is off the air he’ll never be caught. Those folks were good!
Re the discussion about what Trump would do if he didn’t get the nomination…
Yeah, Trump will either get it or go apeshit. He will trash the nominee and/or do a third party run. I think there are only a few situations in which he would not do that:
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He’s dead. It’s almost as if people have stopped talking about Trump’s age because Biden is a little older. But Trump is old himself (currently 76) and doesn’t seem to be in great health. Trump’s death would be a bonanza for the Republican party–the best thing that could possibly happen. The GOP could celebrate Trump’s “legacy” and continue to jerk off his base while starting fresh with a new candidate.
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He’s in prison. If if he could still legally run, I doubt he would in this case, and I don’t think he would have the ability to beat his opponents up much. Further, Trump’s being in prison would severely weaken the GOP in the general. Thus, even though the GOP would have more freedom to select a new candidate, this would not be a good scenario for them.
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He’s too sick, infirm, or burdened by legal issues to run. He would still try to play kingmaker, and it would be a mess, but the GOP could probably steer him toward endorsing the most viable nominee. The scenario would also be pretty good for the GOP (unless it’s legal issues that stop him), but I doubt that Trump, as long as he has any breath in his body, would give up his run in this way. He’s deluded about everything, so he would probably think, “Let’s try to win for now, since I’ll get better (win in court) later.”
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He’s bribed not to run. If Trump is not sick, infirm, or burdened by legal issues per above, I don’t think this would work, since money means much less to his narcissistic ego than being president, but if he were, he might be open to some sort of deal. How would it work? I don’t know, and it would probably be illegal, but that isn’t going to stop these assholes from trying if they can get their hands on the money or find some other way to compensate him. As I said above, the RNC should be thinking about bribing Trump and getting him out now, but they are probably too stupid and cowardly to consider it.
I don’t think there is any way that Trump would bow out and shut up, much less endorse someone else, for the good of the Republican party (and ostensibly the country, hahaha). Realistically speaking, if he’s not dead, he’s going to fuck things up bigly.
If he’s dead, the conspiracy theories will fly – probably not as damaging as a live Trump, but possibly significant if the MAGAtroids get it into their heads that the nominee was involved.
By the way, re DeSantis himself, I wanted to break out and emphasize a point in my OP:
DeSantis won’t look good next to the other Republican primary candidates in debates, etc.
DeSantis is not a good speaker or debater. While I don’t think he’s low-IQ per se, he’s far less articulate and quick on his feet than Haley or Pompeo, nor is he is as smart or as knowledgeable as they are.
He’s mostly attracted positive RW attention through his odious policies and bullying antics. He has yet to throw down with other Republicans on the national stage. Although he may ultimately win the nomination despite this weakness, I think he will exit the primary thoroughly beaten up.
Contrariwise, he doesn’t have Trump’s gift of mockery. Trump certainly was good at trashing the other fools in 2016, and all the poor slobs could do was show the white belly. DeSantis can’t use this method to pull ahead.
Yes, unless it’s clear he has died a slowish death of cancer, etc. A sudden heart attack would trigger the conspiracy theories for sure, however.
I doubt that would prevent the circulation of conspiracy theories (“The Deep State / Party Establishment / Jooos / whatever poisoned him!”)
It was more that Trump ran a perfect campaign from an Electoral College perspective focusing on swing states. Clinton ignored those states and instead focused on the popular vote in already Democratic strongholds.
But you’re assuming these things matter to Republican voters. It doesn’t. They want to pwn the libs. They want to hurt the “right” people. They want to “win” the culture war. The person that gets them the angriest will win. Policy and articulation doesn’t matter. Trump is a walking word salad, and knows nothing about policy and got the nomination.
And Trump is someone who knows how to work a crowd and get them excited. DeSantis is like a parrot repeating what he is told hoping for a treat.
That’s true. But I think being anti-woke trumps (ha!) policy and articulation. If somebody articulate, and exciting is fighting the culture war as well as DeSantis, then DeSantis is in trouble.