Not really a GQ or an IMHO so I’m going to put it here. Mods move if you must.
When we began the current adventure in Iraq in April of 2003 did anybody accurately predict what the general sequences and outcomes would be at this point.
And by “accurately” I mean something considerably more precise than “to hell in a handbasket”. Did anybody have the prescience to really lay it out?
Before the fact? I’m sure someone out there predicted it (in any event you can practically guarentee that SOMEONE will get it right just through dumb luck). The predictions that stuck in my head were how difficult and how many losses we’d take on the invasion…and of course on the other side of the fence what a ‘cake walk’ it would be, with Iraq going down fast and hard and then the people rising up in joy to toss flowers at our feet, etc etc. Myself I thought the invasion would go smoothly with little loss on our side and that the bulk of the Iraqi forces would be destroyed in a series of defensive actions as we pushed further and further into Iraq. I didn’t see that they would disengage and fade out, or that Saddam had a huge para-military force in the wings ready to form the core of an insurgency. I figured we’d get SOME insurgency but that it would die down as it became appearent that Saddam was done. I didn’t see foreign fighters pouring into Iraq either, or AQ taking a serious interest there…I figured all those folks would rush to Afghanistan to join the Taliban in a long insurgency THERE against the Northern Alliance.
Obviously my own powers of prediction suck big time. I’ll be interested to see if anyone predicted accurately the exact series of events we DID get though.
-XT
I think most professional military people were surprised by how easily the Iraqi military was defeated. They were a long established military with experienced forces; fighting a defensive battle on their own territory; they knew an attack was coming; the government had no room to surrender or negotiate; and civilian casualties were not a concern. The Iraqis were expected to put up the same kind of defense the Nazis did in 1945. Most people expected Iraq would be pretty much destroyed (in large part by its own army) before it surrendered.
The pro-invasion predictions that I heard were too optimistic and totally ignored what would come after; and the anti-war predictions I heard were much too pessimistic in terms of the war, the post-war period, and the ramifications around the Middle East. Somebody may’ve got it just right, but nobody I encountered.
Then Army chief of staff General Eric Shinseki publicly stated he thought it would take several hundred thousand troops to maintain order after the invasion. That seems to be a pretty accurate prediction.
I’ve read (maybe also here, but I couldn’t tell. I don’t remember what anybody said) but at least in newspapers a number of articles that guessed correctly, though in a very general way. That is : that the US military would defeat easily the iraki army but would then face unrest and would prove to be unable to establish peace (that was also the initial expectation of the french government, according to some “well informed anonymous sources” mentionned in an article published in “Le Monde”. This expectation might be the reason why I read several articles making the same guess).
Some others guessed correctly up to this point, but were wrong in the sense that they expected the unrest to spread to neighboring countries, which didn’t happen.
However, despite the “easy victory” part, I remember that most articles expected a much fiercer military resistance in cities, or at least in Baghdad. Which didn’t happen.
Not so much a prediction, but my general feeling was that if Bush’s father, with nearly 500,000 troops in the region, and having just soundly defeated Saddam, decided not to go to Baghdad largely because deposing Saddam would create a huge power vacuum, then going to Baghdad with 150,000 or however many we had in the region didn’t make a whole lot of sense. I don’t know how much better things would have gone with more troops, but the power vacuum predicted by Bush 41 sure came to pass, so I’ll give the ‘most prescient thinking’ nod to George HW Bush.
No one could have predicted that they would take the Coalition Provisional Authority, and fly it into the ground like that. Cash blown into the air by that explosion of corruption is still floating to earth.
This analyst from 12/02 did pretty well:
If you read the whole thing it’s even more impressively prescient. There’s very little that he got wrong.
One thing I remember is European military historians predicting (with some joy) that Baghdad would become another Stalingrad, and the Americans forces would proceed there fairly rapidly, but then would suffer appalling casualties besieging the city. This was, apparently, Saddam’s war plan, and why he did not prevent the war by simply allowing the inspectors untrammeled access, as he was required to do according to the 1991 cease fire.
I can give anyone interested a detailed look at one battle plan. My son, a Marine infantryman, served in the 1 Battalion, 4th Marines, posted with the 1st Marine Regiment. Their specific target was the 51st Iraqi Mechanized Division, posted in southern Iraq. First, imagine planning taking out a division with a regiment. Second, the 51st Iraqi Mechanized simply disappeared after the briefest resistance. As his unit fought up the middle of Iraq, most of their action were against irregular forces (Fedayeen Saddam, etc.), until they hit Saddam City, and then crossed the river into Baghdad, when they fought against Republican Guards. Their detailed battle plans became irrelevant once the war began, but they adapted quickly.
Didn’t he get nudged into an early retirement for that, too?
There have been posters who have made a reasonabe prediction of what would happen, but I think most of us were surprised at how quickly initial control was taken.
The ongoing ‘insurgency’ was very predictable, along with it becoming a cause for every fundamentalist with and axe to grind.
What has not yet emerged, but may well happen soon because of the constitution talks, is that internal divisions may well lead to incompatible models of governance will be imposed.
The does not seem to be a way to govern which will be acceptable to all the three main groupings, the Shia, Sunnis and Kurds.
The biggie is a secular on the one hand, through various permutations to an Sharia state.
Add to this that groupings outside Iraq also have influence and interests, Iran, Saudi and Turkey, even if these influences are not official they are there.
This is what will be the greatest challenge, and what could very easily lead to civil war supported by the major players on the borders, or it could quite readily spread to neighboring states.
The worst possible scenario is that we get a Yugoslav style breakup, which expands, or if we are lucky we just get a repressive authoritarian regime that crushes all dissenters and keeps that region fairly stable.
…hang on a moment…didn’t we just…
Dubya’s father didn’t go into Baghdad for the very reason of what is going on now. I haven’t read the book, but have seen excerpts of it on TV and the Book that the older Bush wrote with Scrocroff(Not sure of the spelling) seems to indicate that hey knew the predidtion of what would happen. When asked if he consulted his father about this ,Dubya is quoted as saying;“I talked to a higher father”.
Monavis
The general retired shortly after the flap and news reports generally have
not suggested a nudge but a kick in the pants.
Sorry casdave, but that would be as unacceptable as an unelected military dictator of convenience like Musharraf.
Oh, wait, he’s on the side of the good guys. This is so confusing.
Wouldn’t you love to be a spider on the wall with W. and H.W. discussing this? Assuming they discuss this.
In early 2003, there was a thread on this site in which people were asked to come up with an appropriate name for the upcoming war. My suggestion was “Operation Unintended Consequences”. How’s that for a prediction?
Well, let me tear open this envelope I sealed on February 1, 2002 shrip
“The great flying car regatta will obliterate Baghdad with their arsenal of death-rays.”
Hmmm, clearly I was drunk.