I have to admit that one of the more enjoyable parts of this particular election cycle is watching the Republicans trying to figure out what to do about Trump. Traditionally, if you wear a grey suit and a red tie, you back those also wearing a grey suits with a red tie. This isn’t happening. Republican luminaries are announcing that they are not attending the national convention, some even going so far as to say they will not vote for Trump. I assume the Democratics are silent on these events as it is never wise to interrupt your [del]enemy[/del] opponent when he’s in the process of making a mistake.
Ryan announced that he’s not ready to back Trump in his bid for POTUS. Is this a mistake for a young Republican to make in the eyes of party hardliners? A career ending move? Or is Trump the sort of thing everyone will want to forget, and never again mention, after November?
There’s really no clean way out of this for the republicans who are currently serving in congress. The way I read it, Ryan’s statement that he’s not ready to support Trump doesn’t entirely rule out that he would in the future. It seems like some of these people are hedging their bets. Sarah Palin is already in attack dog mode but Ryan seems relatively safe considering that Wisconsin rejected Trump in resounding fashion. However, if you’re in Georgia, Arizona, or elsewhere, rejecting Trump is risky business. This fissure threatens to expose geographic and ideological rifts that have long existed within the republican party, but have been overcome through national candidates who were able to tie together (I won’t say ‘unite’) the different wings of the party. The problem now is that all of these years when republicans were courting the dumb and fanatical elements of their party and calling it their ‘base’ is beginning to haunt them like hell. There is no clean exit from this. This divide is deep and widespread. Politics is about math and maps. And both are working against the republicans in this election, and maybe permanently.
It all depends on how it turns out. Paul Ryan is an establishment darling but he doesn’t have that much pull in congress or with the voters. Trump can poison him as the speaker.
Ryan, like all the loudmouthed NeverTrumps will eventually come around and support him; that’s what Republicans do. Why anyone thinks otherwise is a mystery to me. They don’t like him but they want to win and since there is a chance Trump could win in November, they will hold their noses and support him and vote for him.
It’s too early to tell. AFAIK, the media outlets, pundits, political parties, political challengers, polls (especially the polls), and internet geniuses have guessed wrong about Trump and Trump’s campaign since the very beginning. But now they’re guessing correctly. :smack:
Politics is about the ability to make a deal. It’s a long way to the general election and, I assume, Ryan want’s a deal, as does every other wanna-be/maybe/soon-to-be GOP candidate supporter.
It’s absurd to believe that Republican voters won’t vote for Trump over Hillary, in spite of what the media outlets and internet posters claim. IMHO, of course.
Well, most of what I have seen will not support either. And yet there are indeed more than just a few that are letting others know that Hillary is still a better choice.
Like military historian and conservative (he worked for McCain and Rubio) Max Boot:
There’s a really easy test to see who should have done what: What happens to Paul Ryan vs what happens to Chris Christie.
Christie caved like a cheap size-65 suit, smooched the orange hemorrhoids, and is now running the Trump transition team. ♪ Roll out the Baboon…! We’ll have a Baboon of fun…! ♫
Ryan stood up for what he believes is what he was elected for (and for what he personally believes in) and now he has that drooling Alaskan Fashionista, “The Countess of Quit”, Sarah Palin after him.
Jesus, this is like Ted Cruz 2 except while I don’t really like Paul Ryan per se, He Did Not Want This Job In The First Place!!!
Yes, for years I’ve wanted the GOP to clean house, but thats because I personally agree with and support the other side of the aisle.
I never thought the GOP would be cleaning out every single senior member capable of cogent or rational thought let alone that they’d use a shotgun…
The OP has to define “mistake.” If stopping Trump is wrong, I don’t want to be right. History will smile favorably on those who stood up to the most unqualified candidate we’ve ever seen.
Mistake. Basically I’m wondering if this will this become an albatross around Ryan’s neck every time he places his name on a ballot? Will he be seen as a party turncoat? If Trump loses will he be one of the scapegoats partially responsible for the loss? (in party eyes)
It seems the wise thing for a Republican to do in this situation is, well, nothing. Do nothing for Trump, say nothing about trump unless questioned, then respond with “he’s the party choice.” Then go cast your secret ballot.
Of course time will tell but I’m thinking he is playing the best long game he can with the cards he’s got.
One assumes that he is figuring that the oddsmakers are correct and with or without his support Trump will likely lose.
If a Trump blow out and he was a supporter then he is weak moving forward building anything else and the House may even be at risk.
Given that then his concerns are minimizing the negative impact of that on his House majority and putting himself as the leader of a rebranded GOP that emerges after a major Trump loss, one that he wants to be the architect and leader of, even if it will be a several cycle process.
Trump is cultural resentment and authoritarianism unbundled from the rest of the GOP package. It was enough to win the nomination this time, but it will not be enough to win the Presidency. OTOH the conservative coalition pandering to those wanting to buy cultural resentment did not win either. The new brand has to make inroads into the overwhelming support that the Democratic party has within various minority populations. Minority demographics are not overwhelmingly “progressive” and some fraction would be attracted to the GOP if not for its bundle with cultural resentment against them.
Having positioned against Trump with a Trump loss serves his interests well.
If Trump wins he is really no worse off. No one else wants the Speaker job and the make up of the House is likely not much changed. He serves as a brake on Trump and positions for the next cycle to primary him. Would he be in any better of a position if Trump wins and he had been on his side? Nah. A GOP party of Trump has no place for Ryan, even as a toady. Toady Ryan gets dumped when is possible to do so and has no power to fight back.
Gaming it out being minimally a hesitant supporter is his least poor choice.
Ryan and other GOP leaders are foolishly trying to change Trump and turn him into another boring GOP candidate.
They are too dumb to understand Trump’s outsider status is what makes him popular with voters. His only chance this Nov is to stay true to himself. He’s been a prickly a-hole his entire career. He does need to moderate his tone but he can’t be seen as a establishment candidate.
What those so-called ‘dumb’ Republicans are trying to do is very simple, and it’s not dumb at all; it’s called damage control. They don’t want to be associated with the ignorant, non-Republican, overtly racist rhetoric that Trump spouts. I doubt anyone expects he’s going to change. This is about CYA, not molding Trump into a good little Republican.
He’s not popular with voters. Latest poll shows him at 55% disapproval, 35% approval. You may wish to analyze the evidence carefully before you start calling others dumb.
Paul Ryan has a pretty good long hand here, I think. Here’s what I forecast, knock on wood:
-Trump is routed.
-Congressional Republicans are gutted.
-Ryan helps pick up the pieces, makes a lot of statesmanly speeches about how the Republican Party needs to return to its roots.
If he plays his cards right, he might reposition the Republican party to be more libertarian and less racist. He might use the chance to purge the Republican party of some of its worst demagogues. I don’t expect him to become a Democrat by any means, but if he can use the Trump disaster to pull the emergency brake on the runaway train, he stands a very good chance of being president in 2020 or 2024.
Trump has won state after state. Soundly defeating a field of 16 candidates. Not to mention overcoming an unprecedented coordinated attack by his own party leaders; led by two time loser, Romney.
People are voting for him and he’s obviously popular. He did it by being true to himself and not listening to party handlers. He’s The Donald. always has been and always will be.
I don’t agree with a lot of things he’s said. I do highly respect the methodical way he’s torn the GOP field to shreds and emerged on top.
Ryan and the others needs to carefully think about what happens if Trump wins. They got to work with the guy. They can at least give lukewarm support. Then go back to business as usual if Trump loses.
People are voting for him in Republican primaries…and even in those, it took until the very last few primaries for him to actually pull majorities.
As Left Hand of Dorkness points out, among the broader population of voters, over half of voters give him a negative rating (and that’s been consistently the case throughout the campaign to date). It remains a very open question whether he will be able to change the minds of those who currently view him unfavorably, which, barring a weak turnout among disenchanted Bernie supporters in the general election, would seem to be Trump’s best hope for actually winning in November.
If Trump loses, he’s out of politics. But these other Republicans have to face re-election. They want to keep as much distance from Trump as possible.
If Trump wins and gets elected President then he’s going to find out he can’t run the country single-handedly. He’ll have to seek out an accommodation with the Republican establishment and, to a lesser extent, they’ll have to seek out an accommodation with him.
