Ever since the Chinese government’s decision to slam one of its medium-range ballistic missiles (aka “kinetic interceptor”) into the aging Feng Yun 1C weather satellite–subsequently creating a massive debris cloud–I’ve wondered if they did so with the intention of bedeviling U.S. spy satellites.
This evening, a UPI report mentions that “the United States filed a diplomatic protest … because the [destroyed Chinese] weather satellite used approximately the same orbit as its spy satellites.”
Coincidental? Perhaps. And while it isn’t difficult to punch holes through my dime store conspiracy theory–especially given the abundance of US spy satellites–my question is: How difficult would it be for the Chinese government to execute a space-based intercept such that they would be reasonably confident that it might cause havoc to the U.S.? We’re talking one hell of a billiards shot, I know.
Going in, the Chinese would have known that the US would cry foul, but the fallout would have been no worse that the US deciding to scuttle the planned joint space project. With the Chinese government’s robust espionage network, perhaps that “loss” is actually quite minimal and worth the trade off. And what might the Chinese actually gain? Without top-level clearances, perhaps we can’t begin to know, but the Chinese have long protested US spy-sat overflights.
Having just discussed this topic in the Air Force course I’m currently attending, here’s your biggest problem: Someone can knock satellites out of the sky.
Creating debris only gives you the chance of hitting another satellite in the hopes of knocking out certain things. By intentionally launching a missile and taking out a satellite, that shows more than just chance–that shows intent.
The Chinese made a statement: We intentionally hit one of ours to show you we can hit one of yours.
Tripler
Oh yeah, when satellites get hit, it’s a big problem: not just because of the cost of launching and maintaining.
“Problem” with this theory–how so? Had the Chinese–the same folks who in 2001 forced down a US spy plane over international air space near Hainan, and who have long warned the US about overflights and “fly-bys”–wanted to destroy a US satellite, they would have. I acknowledge that.
While it’s well accepted that the Chinese were demonstrating their technological prowess, my question hinges on the proposition that the Chinese well knew that slamming a kinetic interceptor into a parked satellite would create a huge debris field. Might they have done so to interfere with US intel satellites–or at least seriously rattle the NRO boys–without actually damaging them? The Chinese clearly made more than an empty threat, as the debris field is a very real thing, and may pose a threat to our intel satellites. Or does it?
Remember the context: China has key interests in Iran, far beyond “just” oil and natural gas. The US has two aircraft carrier tasks force groups in or near the Persian Gulf, plus “prepositioned” forces in Iran and Afghanistan. In addition, the Tehran-Washington saber rattling is spooking everyone. Well understanding the importance of satellites as a tool of an air attack on Iran, might the Chinese have intended something more than a “We can hit your satellite?” message, without actually damaging the satellites? In short, create a field of optical chaff.
Given the seeming confusion and delay in the Chinese response I really got the impression that they didn’t think this thing through technically or diplomatically.
It would seem more like a reassurance to Iran and any of Chinas other allys or potential allies ,satraps , client states etc that the days of American domination of the high frontier are over.
That China can at least remove a pesky satellite , if they have the will to shoot down an American or Russian bird is a different story.
Looking at my OP, I don’t see a question, so much as a statement, followed by a few suppositions. Actually, I think I knew that going in, but didn’t want this dropped into the wilds of IMHO.
Mods: Feel free to keep in GQ, or move elsewhere. A discussion on the science of intercepting satellites, or kicking up “debris clouds,” or anything else anti-sat related is fine.
With Satellite Tool Kit (STK) or any other orbital mechanics simulator, you can model the orbits of satellites. I haven’t used it, but I’m told it’s pretty simple to write a plugin that conserves momentum. If you pre-defined a distribution of debris (N pieces larger than X millimeters, etc.) and then piled it randomly into a sphere, you could do Monte Carlo modelling on the likelihood of debris ending up on an orbit that intercepts a specific satellite at a specific time. Do I think the Chinese did that? Maybe; they are very risk-averse, and I suspect they wanted to make sure they wouldn’t (e.g.) knock down the ISS. Do I think they tried to hit another satellite with debris? No, that would turn their test into an international incident and possibly an act of war. Besides the primary benefit of delivering a message, the ASAT shot also placed a cloud of debris on orbit. If the Chinese know where our spy satellites are today, and they know that we don’t have one already inside the debris, they they know – based on our risk-averse space programs – that we damn sure won’t put one there from now on.
Depending on how big the debris field is, it could cover several hours of sky-time. That would give the Chinese a known window every day during which they could move sensitive items from place to place without fear of being seen by satellites. “Optical chaff” is a bad way to think of it, because chaff works by anti-simulation; this is more of an area denial effect. Think of it as “working in the shade”.
Here’s a great link to some video of the simulated debris cloud (created with STK, I think). The simulation shown uses valid NORAD two-line-elements for known debris objects. Dig this worrisome quotation:
The trade-off for this “veil of denial,” of course, is it signals the National Reconnaissance Office to watch that (admittedly huge) swatch of land even more closely, and risk satellites doing so.
Provided all of this was purposeful. Remember Stalin’s admonition.
If all you want to do is create a debris field, it doesn’t make any sense to destroy an existing satellite. It would be much easier to launch a new satellite that blows up itself.
Of course, that wasn’t “all” that China wanted to do. Their approach gave a demonstration to the US of their anti-sat technology, while leaving behind a nasty calling card that closes the curtain (or at least dims the lights) over a large chunk of China.
Should PRC ever launch against Taiwan, this scenario might be revisited.