If the Republicans had used either runoffs or ranked voting or some other mechanism intended to prevent the “spoiler effect”, Trump probably would not have gotten the Republican nomination, right. The spoiler effect screws candidates who are very similar to other candidates - such as being a reasonably inoffensive generic Republican candidate - such that voters for those candidates split their votes, while votes for a unique radical blowhard are undiluted.
The second part of the problem is that Hillary Clinton was a deeply unpopular candidate. A generic republican - basically a generic looking white guy who was a college cheerleader and went to the same church as some previous politician - would have won the election easily. No, there wasn’t a real chance of Sanders winning, even if the contest were not rigged, Hillary had been preparing for this for too long.
Anyways, with these years of outrages, I don’t see how there won’t be a massive backlash. The message is getting through to the public, fake news believers are not the majority. It looks, at this point, like there will be far more votes cast for Democrats this coming election and in 2020. Of course, the system has been carefully rigged in favor of Republicans who controlled the Gerrymandering process, so this will not have as large an effect as it should…
Well, since the Republican won, I would say that they didn’t screw themselves at all.
As for your prediction of a “massive backlash” against “outrages”, how’d that work out for you in the past election? “That offends me” is not the same as “That affects me”.
As long as Democrats are perceived (fairly or not) as putting the interests of minorities first and not caring about the issues that concern working class whites, it is my opinion that this “backlash” is going to be much less than you think.
Yeah, right, they just killed themselves here:rolleyes: . Over the years they’ve given up their position as a minority party and instead now have the onus of controlling the House, Senate, White House, and keeping the Supreme Court stacked with Strict Original Construction Intentists. I don’t see how they could sink any lower.
Ok, they have given up machine control of their candidates, primary battles for the congressional seats allow well-funded and vocal factions great influence, the presidential primaries are Pro Wrestling Battle Royale, but that appeals to their voters, and the coronation of Hillary as the Democratic candidate was part of what sent the voters to Trump. People are tired of the traditional politics where they are pawns used by the political establishment. They still are, but they like candidates who tell them they’re not doing that.
I’m a life long Republican, advocated against Trump early and often, voted for Kasich in the primary, voted for Hillary in the general–all because I didn’t want the party, or my country, going in this direction. But it’s hard in the immediate term to say the GOP screwed themselves at all, let alone due to the nature of their primary system. The GOP won the White House and fended off what was thought to be a highly likely Dem takeover of the Senate while maintaining their control of the lower chamber. They then got a new Supreme Court justice through and have 3.75 years of Presidency left which is a long time to pass a lot of things the caucus has been dreaming about for ages. Will they ever actually do any of that is an open question, but the GOP is in the best place it’s been in about 12 years.
I’m actually not at all sure that any other member of the Republican field would’ve beaten Hillary. Cruz’s base is almost entirely evangelicals, which makes him powerful within the party but not that impressive in a match up against a Democrat–evangelicals are always going to vote for the Republican at something like an 85%-90% clip, and they remained loyal even for Trump. Issues like abortion will always outweigh other concerns (like the fact Trump is likely not a Christian at all) to them.
Kasich is basically just a Jeb Bush without the family-name problems, and there’s not much evidence he’d be able to shed the establishment label, so he’d get none of Trump’s “anti-establishment” vote swing.
Rubio is like a more handsome Kasich who might have done a little better among Hispanics, but not likely enough to matter. The GOP won Texas/Florida anyway (two of the four big Hispanic states), California was never in reach for a Republican and New Mexico isn’t big enough to have mattered most likely.
Trump had a unique ability to attract voters Republicans weren’t traditionally getting in the Rust Belt, which happened to mesh well with this region’s dislike of Clinton (she struggled there in the primaries too.)
I agree with Martin Hyde. Republicans have unified control of Washington and many state governments. It’s hard to argue they screwed something up along the way to their dominating position.
This might sound like snark but it’s true. Simply being in control is not the measure of success, actually doing something with that power is what matters.
Well, to a point. Take those two items running coach mentioned: would a different primary system have gotten them a president who’d have gotten a Muslim ban? Or gotten a repeal-and-replace victory?
A different primary system may have gotten them a candidate who would’ve lost to Hillary Clinton, with obvious ramifications for the Supreme Court. Or it may have gotten them a winning candidate – but one with a different level of dedication to, I dunno, gun rights? Let’s say gun rights.
But would a change in the primary system have helped on the items in question?
Not sure I totally agree. Stopping HRC from doing the things that she wanted to is a victory for my side, whether Trump goes on to accomplish great things or not. There (presumably) will not be a fifth SCOTUS justice willing to sign off on DC- and Chicago-style gun bans (at least for a few more years).
What they have won is a very hollow victory. They are completely unable to pass any legislation and when impeachment, conviction, and eventual imprisonment inevitably happen the Republicans will find themselves out of control in short order.
Judging by Chaffetz’s departure, I think impeachment before 2018, resignation/conviction early 2018, and depending on whether Pence grants him a pardon there could be a guy in an orange jumpsuit with matching skin by 2020.
Republicans didn’t do themselves any harm. Their path to the nomination produced exactly what they wanted: a battle-tested campaigner who could win the Presidency. Given the ascendancy of the Republican Party in national and state politics, I’d say they are not the ones right now asking a whole lot of questions about the mechanics of their system.
The system as set up for the last round was to reduce the impact of the radical candidate who could get a strong plurality but not a majority. It left time up front to sort out a front runner or two with proportional or more proportional delegate rules. By design the winner take all or most rules allowed (but not required) later states to then quickly finish a challenger that was unlikely to win. Someone like Sanders in the Democratic primaries this year, or Romney’s challengers in 2012, would have faded more quickly once the early primaries were done. The idea was to stop the long internal wrangling, come together, and focus on the general election while the Democrats where still bashing each other in a strictly proportional primary fight.
It was well designed for fields of candidates that were more normal prior to 2016. It doesn’t work so well when you have 17 candidates and the outsider starts with massive name recognition. It was an effective solution applied to the wrong set of conditions.
Hollow victory? As opposed to the Democrat Party’s very solid failure? Their failure to keep elected Democrats in office? It appears that it’s the elected Democrats who have found themselves out of control.
Chaffetz quitting merely says he’s out of tune with the environment he finds himself in. An environment that’s bigger than he is which he can no longer influence in the ways he wants.
Perhaps his departure signals that the fix is totally in, the Rs fully intend to ignore any and every Trump crime, and they fully intend to ride his filthy coat tails all the way to massive gains in the next election powered by massive politically directed spending, politically directed prosecutions, and politically directed propaganda.
I’m not suggesting the above is necessarily true. I am suggesting that assuming Chaffetz is getting out before the Rs embark on an internal housecleaning is naïve and wishful thinking.
Hey, give us credit, we Dems have made blowing a sure thing into an art form.
But really 2016 does not happen in a vacuum - let’s not forget Republicans in general started their current congressional/statehouse winning streak in 2010, and so did the internal conflicts with the hardline ideological side (Tea Party/Freedom Caucus), but it did not stop them from moving ahead. The 2016 presidential primary rules were a “fighting the last war” exercise after 2012 but they worked perfectly at their purpose of ensuring a strong front runner would emerge early instead of a Flavor Of The Month, the Establishment just did not expect THAT frontrunner.
If the current majority/Administration fail to get things done it’s not really the primary’s fault as much as it is 6 years of the hardliners using obstruction for its own sake and unrealistic promises as a succesful platform not just against Obama but against their own mainstreamers, and now everyone being faced with “holy %#*$, how are we going to actually deliver?”
1- Chaffetz has seen enough of the intel to realize that the Russia scandal is far bigger than anyone dreamed and he wants to be as far away from ground zero as possible when it blows up.
2- Chaffetz has a massive skeleton in his closet of the dead girl or live boy variety.