Trump will be impeached if he fails as president. I was ridiculed about a year ago for arguing that the true reason that Richard Nixon was forced out of office was not because he committed high crimes and misdemeanors, but rather because the nation was failing. In reality maybe it was both of those things but I think people are by now maybe starting to understand what I was saying? Presidents aren’t removed or pushed out of power for high crimes or misdemeanors; they’re removed for the perception that they have failed to make the country better. The bit about high crimes just gives his political nemeses the constitutional justification for removing him, but impeachment is a political process. Politics and the law, politics and the Constitution are not necessarily related.
Let’s also first of all remember the significance (or lack thereof) of polling. If a poll says that President Trump’s approval rating is getting close to Nixon’s around the time of his impeachment, does this portend his removal? Not necessarily. Remember that during the campaign he consistently polled in the 30s and low 40s. But on election night, the silent plurality, let’s call it, spoke by going to the polls in higher than expected numbers and giving us this president. The polling in reference to Trump means little, and it won’t keep him from strengthening his bond with extremists - I’ll get to that later.
The polls that would matter are polls that indicate a possible Democratic takeover of the House in 2018, but we’re probably a good 6 months before those polls come out. And my prediction is that, as controversial as Trump has been, as much as he’s fired up Democrats, he might result in Republicans losing seats, but there’s no solid evidence that he’ll be facing a House ready to impeach him in 2019. And that’s because, right now, the country is still doing reasonably well economically. A lot of people, particularly those who voted for Trump, have jobs and incomes. They might wish they had more but it’s better than in 2008. We might get tax cuts next year. Big corporations might get to have less regulation in the future. At the moment there’s no war - there’s the threat of war but there has been for some time. The country isn’t failing. It’s divided, and we’re mad at each other. But Trump’s supporters don’t blame Trump for that. They just wish he’d tweet less.
Meanwhile, Trump is just getting started. If you think Trump has been horrible and shocking now, just you wait. He’s going to become more extreme and he’s going to use grassroots extremism to strike fear into the hearts of those who challenge him. I guarantee you now that the rule of law and the system is after him, his objective is to destroy the system. This will get worse before it gets better. Much worse.
For those who think that Republicans will run away from Trump in 2018:
"*Nearly nine months after the conclusion of the 2016 general election and despite months of hesitation, Republican Sen. Dean Heller has finally confirmed that he voted for Donald Trump for president.
In a short statement released to The Nevada Independent, Heller — who is up for reelection in 2018 and is being challenged in a primary by businessman Danny Tarkanian — confirmed that he indeed voted for the Republican nominee during the 2016 election after more than a year of vocal criticism toward the party’s nominee.
“Yes, I voted for Donald Trump,” he said in a statement texted to a reporter.*"
…because his primary opponent is a pro-Trumper. Being a “nevertrumper” is a liability.
If I were running the GOP as a business, I would be freaking out about the damage my brand has taken over the past 5 days. To be so permanently identified with Nazi’s and White Supremacists to the point where my spokespersons can’t even plausibly deny it… it’s a brand killer.
Lol, Trump tweets a picture of a CNN reporter getting hit by a train just 5 hours after you posted this, then it got deleted with a frantic White House claiming “IT WAS A MISTAKE! THE PRESIDENT JUST HIT THE WRONG BUTTON!”
Moves like this endear him to no one, you are quite correct.
And it will be much more effective when the investigation is complete. Trunp’s incompetence has never been in doubt, but the deplorabes won’t stand for kicking him out until the evidence is in (and maybe not even then).
And, and…the fact that the public hasn’t demanded that Trump be removed from office yet. And that’s because they don’t see a need to ‘fix’ a country that isn’t broken. Reversing an election is a big deal. That won’t keep congressional majorities from using the power just because they can, but the will to follow through with removing a president only comes as a result of a general feeling that the country is better off without the current president. Bill Clinton endured an impeachment proceeding for perjury, a charge for which there was fairly strong evidence. But he was acquitted because there wasn’t the public will to do it. If the country had been in a deep recession back in 1999, things might have turned out differently.
Many people can believe what they want but the evidence is there. They simply choose not to act on it because, as I said, overturning an election is a big deal.
And they won’t unless they feel that the country isn’t doing so well. With the market indices in record territory and unemployment the lowest it has been in nearly two decades, you’re not going to get a country to support removing a president from office for “collusion”.
Or it’s not. Just holding a belief really really strongly doesn’t make it reality. There is an incredible amount of interpretation required to say what’s constitutional and what isn’t. If anyone tries to tell you that it’s all easy-peasy, lemon squeezy, they are misleading you.