Did US torture reveal the name of the courier that led to Osama bin Laden?

[Martin_Hyde]

@md2000

The safe-combination is a variant on the ticking-bomb argument. A simple, testable single piece of information can be gotten out of someone with sufficient persuasion - plus the victim’s knowledge that the information is testable, and if wrong, will result in rounds 2 and more of the same treatment or worse.

For simple, short-term-unprovable information, or information you cannot be sure the person even has, denial and misdirection work just as well. So “enhanced” interrogation is no more useful than regular interrogation.

Besides, what under “find Bin Laden” questions falls in the category of “ticking bomb, need answer NOW!” to justify torture?

People also will say whatever they think their interrogators want to hear. Maher Arar - Wikipedia A canadian citizen, Mr. Arar confessed under torture to attending an Al Qeda training camp, even though there is no evidence or timing that could justify this. After a year of torture, even Syria concluded he was not a terrorist; Canada paid $10M for its complicity and stupidity; the USA still insists he is a terrorist and is on their no-fly list, since to admit their mistake would open them to liability too.

Right, and I’m not significantly disagreeing with most of this. I’m just saying in certain contrived circumstances torture can obviously get what you want. A ticking time bomb is a little more fanciful than a safe combination (we have real world examples of torture to get safes open, I don’t know if the ticking time bomb thing has ever happened IRL.)

[md2000]

@Martin_Hyde

Right, and I’m not significantly disagreeing with most of this. I’m just saying in certain contrived circumstances torture can obviously get what you want. A ticking time bomb is a little more fanciful than a safe combination (we have real world examples of torture to get safes open, I don’t know if the ticking time bomb thing has ever happened IRL.)

Yeah, but ticking-bomb is always cited as a good excuse why sometimes torture is justified… despite the lack or real world examples.

In fact the ticking-bomb often fails the safe-combination scenario test, since in most scenarios the ability to find and disable the ticking bomb does not give you a chance to apply round 2 if the information was misleading. Presumably the victim knows this, and knows all they have to do is stall with incorrect information.

[gaffa]

@md2000

Yeah, but ticking-bomb is always cited as a good excuse why sometimes torture is justified… despite the lack or real world examples.

As FBI Interrogator Jack Cloonan said, in the very first link I posted in this thread:

I have been hard-pressed to find a situation where anybody can tell me that they’ve ever encountered a “ticking bomb” scenario. It’s a bit of a red herring. It’s thrown up there, we have a really strong reaction to that…“What if…?”.

In a real world, it doesn’t happen.

The Israelis, who have been doing this for a long time and are really good at it…they don’t believe in this stuff. And they’ve never had a situation where there is a quote “ticking bomb”.

And so, when we have a show like 24, who popularized that, and they show them sticking a wire on this guy to get him to talk because he’s got the Keys to the Kingdom…it makes all of us believe this is real. It’s not. Throw that stuff out. Doesn’t happen.

Watch the link. Feel free to Google to find an actual expert, that is someone who had the day-to-day job of getting criminals to provide information, who believes the opposite.

[What_the]

@md2000

Huh? It’s kind of hard to keep hush-hush a raid into another country without their consent that results in a helicopter being destroyed. I suspect anyone who knew about the OBL house would know something happened before we had a chance to proces any intelligence gathered. Even if they did not know where he was, a black ops raid on a house that stirred the anthill as badly as this did would certainly spook the rest of al Qeda. They would have scurried with or without boasting. I’m sure some had contacts in the Pakistani intelligence (so the popular wisdom goes) so they would have had warning right away that something had broken open. The only real mystery is whether any of the “dead” are sitting in cell in Cuba.

Charles Krauthamer told me that the admin was too eager to list in too much detail all of the good intelligence they got rather than just use it.

I suppose you can believe that all of the terrorists would have closed up and moved from all of their safe-houses immediately … I don’t.

[md2000]

@What_the

Charles Krauthamer told me that the admin was too eager to list in too much detail all of the good intelligence they got rather than just use it.

I suppose you can believe that all of the terrorists would have closed up and moved from all of their safe-houses immediately … I don’t.

I suppose you can believe that OBL and friends left a up-to-date list and map of where others were hiding out where anyone could read it so it did not take days or weeks of analysis to find the details. Which would imply that like OBL, all the other top brass would basically broadcast the location of their safe houses to couriers and others. Or that despite being relatively incommunicado, OBL was receiving up-to-the-minue updates on everyone else.

I think the White House knew the news would get out, so they made the most of the media opportunity and moved to hog the lime-light while the camera lights were on… justifiably so. In the end, it was a white house call to approve the mission and the method and the instructions on anything so sensitive. I don’t think anyone diminished the role of the Seal Team.