Did we REALLY shoot down a satellite?

Coolness factor of shooting satelites out of the sky…priceless.

I didn’t care about the satellite in the first place so why should I care if they want to pretend they shot it down?

You misspelled “Cost of propping up the military-industrial complex in a time of economic recession”.

Okay, I’ll stop now.

How will you ever be sure of the independence of any source that confirms it?

The satellite trackers new about this satellite too, right after the launch… it just didn’t make the news, because no one cares.

It was a win/win for the defense industry, and hawk politicians.

We hit the satellite: See! We’re number one. Take that you commie bastards!

We miss the satellite: Obviously we have to increase defense spending! The Chinese are coming, the Chinese are coming!

And we get to claim that the whole thing was to avoid hydrazine poisoning.

Politics.

Tris

Perhaps, but it’s nice to know the damn thing works. :slight_smile:

You say “useless exercise in machismo”, defense pundits say “unconditional demonstration of anti-ballistic missile and anti-satellite capability.” It goes a long way to establishing that an unscripted intercept of a ballistic object at the outer envelope of extant interceptor capability is feasible. (Actually, in this case the SM-3 was modified with different upper stages to increase the operating ceiling.) It doesn’t demonstrate capability against more sophisticated maneuverable abd evasive targets, nor discriminating against multiple payloads and penetration aids, but you have to crawl before you can walk, walk before you sprint, and sprint before you can stumble and fall headfirst into the curb. This at least puts paid to claims that the basic concept is fundamentally flawed.

Whether this is a good thing or not depends on your position on the militarization of orbital space. On one hand, getting into another arms race and putting weapons in space makes it difficult to argue against such proliferation. On the other hand, the number of nations with intercontinental suborbital or orbital launch capability is and will continue to increase, and doubtless someone will develop the option to place weapons in space regardless of any accords or treaties. Failing to address this in some effective fashion will leave defenders without a leg to hop around on.

In terms of the cost, if we consider the target satellite a write-off, this was relatively cheap for a test, since there isn’t the cost of a target launch. It is also inarguably a fairly realistic test of the interceptor system, and while the relative position of the target is known, also a good test of the target tracking system at the extremity of its range. Nobody gets to claim that this was a scripted, bogus test. The “cost of propping up the military-industrial complex in a time of economic recession,” is relatively negligible in upfront costs, though validating the concept of ballistic target interception will make it harder for opponents to unilaterally cut these programs.

Filmed in a studio in Burbank?

Seriously, there’s no real question that an intercept occurred. Because the time and target were identified to the general public well in advance this has doubtless been monitored by many interested parties who would call foul if some obvious subterfuge were afoot, and the disappearance of the satellite and resultant debris pattern will be obvious. This just isn’t a fakeable event.

Regarding previous ASAT systems and events, there have been several known American ASAT programs and other proposals which may or may not have led to still-classified systems. The Nike-Zeus-basedProgram 505 and the followup Thor-based Program 437 used nuclear-armed satellite interceptors. Although these systems were technically granted operational status, they were never “on alert”, and had to be assembled for each launch. The use of high altitude nuclear explosions was problematic for a number of reasons, and would also have violated the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, so the US invested in conventional or kinetic anti-satellite interceptor programs like Program 922, Project SPIKE, the Polaris A3-based Early Spring, the Army’s Minuteman-launched Kinetic Kill Vehicle, and the Air Force air-launched ASM-135A ASAT, which was delivered to launch altitude by a specially-modified F-15A Eagle. It is the last that performed the actual satellite intercept (of Solwind P78-1 satellite on 13 Sept 1985, not 1989 as erroneously stated in the CNN.com article). This has been the only full-up intercept by an American program prior to the SM-3 intercept, although other tests have been conducted which demonstrate measured success in orbital access and tracking.

It is entirely possible that other “black” ASAT programs exist which may have borrowed from public programs; however, because deployment of these systems is in violation of SALT 1, such programs many not be publically acknowledged or deployed until another party provides impetus to do so. In addition, many undeveloped proposals for adapting existing ICBM/SLBM systems, and space based systems for ASAT use exist, and virtually any system designed for ICBM interception could be adapted for use against satellites in LEO. Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) for use in anti-ICBM venues could certainly function as ASAT weapons, but to date no feasibility has been demonstrated for this class of weapon.

Clearly the ostensible safety justification was a wink-and-nudge which allowed the U.S. to demonstrate ASAT capability under the aegis (heh) of legitimate operations, but the cost of the launch is a nonce compared to what gets dropped into many programs that don’t produce anything but PowerPoint slides, and a virtual drop in the bucked compared to what gets thrown into the desert on a daily basis. If you’re going to get outraged over the cost of this, even a small portion of the defense budget will cause your head to do this.

Stranger

I’m not a nut, really.

I thought that video was pretty convincing. But, the links provided by other posters seem pretty legit, too.

I actually think that a display of our ability to shoot down satellites is probably a good deterrent going forward.

Assuming the shootdown actually occurred as publicized, what does this say if/when we escalate into a real world war? It seems to me quite a few satellites will be brought down in rapid succession by both sides, blinding both sides, and greatly increasing the risk said war will go nuclear just that much faster.

There’s always spy planes. We still have plenty of those.

And, uhh, like…balloons and stuff.

Also, I can see pretty far from my treehouse fort.

It’s why they’re developing the hyperfast jets, so we could still get reconaissance from anywhere in the world with hours. I read recently we’d got one up to maybe 5000 mph (Is that right?) but just for seconds. Now we’ve got to figure out how to sustain that. What they have planned, what’s on their wish list, is way faster than even the SR-71.

But a deterrent against what? Placing satellites in orbit? It won’t deter anyone else from developing such weapons, and the general problem with deterrence is that it encourages opponents to defeat deterrence methods, ad nausum, resulting in a “Red Queen” race. Effort will go into making satellites stealthy, or maneuverable, or have on-board defense systems against interception. This doesn’t mean that it will encourage nuclear proliferation as Duckster suggests (the problems with using nuclear ASAT weapons are manifold), but it does mean that space may become more militarized. Actual use of ASAT weapons in orbit will pollute Low Earth Orbit with debris that will be hazardous for satellites and spacecraft.

It’s probably unavoidable, unless all existing and incipient spacefaring governments suddenly get smacked with the Mace of Rationality, but that seems about as unlikely as holidays in Saturn’s rings.

Stranger

Mostly what just happened is that we now have a new minimum orbital altitude for our spy satellites. Keep in mind that this one, and the one that the Chinese shot down were low enough that they were already coming down on their own in fairly short times. So, we have to go higher, and then build new ASAT rockets.

Eventually, a massive payload of bb’s and C4 will be the first round of anyone planing military action against the major powers, since they have the infrastructure to put at risk. Anyone with a launch vehicle can do that. With a good one, you can even insert in a retrograde orbit and screw things up for a few decades.

Tris

Related thread:
satellite defense (or is it offense?)

http://www.breitbart.tv/html/50894.html

Don’t be silly, we have the Iraq war for that.