Reality Chuck – hate to burst your bubble, but I kind of misspoke when I said that digital photography is the wave of the future. Digital photography is here now. And not just snapshots.
More and more photojournalists are turning to digital for their main modus operandi. The New York Times, for instance, shoots all digital. Yes, all those NYT photographer pictures you see in the paper are taken on Canon digital cameras. Perhaps the food and fashion stuff is still taken normally, but even product photography is going the way of digital. When you do still lifes, you have all the time you want to take an exposure (more or less) and if you have a high-end digital camera made for this purpose, you can create poster-quality 50 Meg files.
On the more practical level, the Nikon D1 makes files which, full frame and uncompressed, equal about 7-8 megabytes. Canon has a new digicam coming out this fall which makes pictures in the range of 10 megs. On top of that, the Nikon D2 is supposed to come out sometime in the future, and I assume it will have a resolution in this range, if not surpassing it.
When I worked for the wires, the images we transmitted were in the range of 6-8 megs. This was more than sufficient for newspaper repro. The top-line pro digital cameras make images slightly surpassing this range. This is not to say that magazines don’t use digital photography as well. It’s not as good as shooting slides, but news magazines such as Time and Newsweek routinely use digital photos. For high-quality glossies and excellent image quality, an image size more in the range of 20 Megs would be preferable for a half to 3/4 page.
Fine art photography will continue using conventional means as well as digital means, IMHO. Hell, fine art photography still uses pinhole cameras, lithography techniques, toning, cross-processing, infrared film, etc, etc, etc, and a truckload of other techniques which have long been out of popular use. Hell, there was that Polaroid transfer fad in the 80s. These things will never die – however, it is my firm conviction that mainstream photography, including fashion and high-end glossy, will be all-digital within 5-10 years, and that’s a conservative estimate.
And the reasons are simple business. It is much cheaper to maintain. You save loads of money on film; it saves money on time; you don’t have to make Polaroid proofs as you can check your lighting in the LCD screen on the back; it performs better in low- and artificial-lighting situations than film. There is absolutely no reason on earth why photography will not be all-digital in the near future.