The value of that signal will deteriorate as colleges water down their programs in response to a wider swath of people going through. And if everyone has a degree, no one is special.
Perversely, what this actually might do is widen the gap between an Ivy League education and everyone else. If it still requires excellent grades and a lot of money to go to the Ivy Leagues, but anyone can go through state U with middling grades and student loan money, then the ‘signal’ of a State U education will be lost or diminished, and the relative value of the Ivy League education will grow.
So the attempt to push everyone into college might just result in a wider gap in outcome between the rich and poor, while saddling the poor people with enormous debt.
In some fields you’re already seeing the value of the degree drop. Valve software does not require a college degree for any job - they hire based on interview and testing. My own company (a huge multinational) looks at degrees but doesn’t require them if you have equivalent experience/skill, and once you’re in the company the degree is irrelevant. We have two-year diploma grads leading teams of Harvard-educated engineers. We’ll promote whoever can do the job.
One of the reasons college signaling has been important is that we have hamstrung employers from finding out a person’s real talents. We’ve disallowed all kinds of tests an employer might want to give an applicant to determine if they can do the job, in the name of ‘equal access’. But perversely again, this may have the result of punishing people who can’t afford to go to good schools because the have no other way of showing their ability to an employer.
Another perverse result occurs when we pass legislation that makes it harder for an employer to fire an employee. This raises the stakes for hiring, which excludes a lot of marginal people. You can really see this in countries like France, where large numbers of young people are essentially frozen out of the job market because they don’t have the background or references to put an employer’s mind at ease. This is especially true of the immigrant population who employers see as being more risky because of their unknown backgrounds.
Instead of just adding more student loan money to the system to ‘help’ people with rising tuition, we’d be much better off to examine alternate educational paths along with reforms that make it easier for employers to take a risk on an employee with a non-standard background. But that probably won’t happen because the higher education lobby has a very vested interest in maintaining its status as the gateway to a good job, and once you have a degree you have a vested interest in keeping all those non-degreed people from competing with you.