Do mainstream economists in the US think a depression is looming?

[elmwood]

I’d post this in GQ, but I don’t know if there’s a factual answer; the question is related to current events.

I want to know if the majority view of regarded mainstream economists – not the fringe, not survivalists, not the talking heads in the media that delight in bad news, and not armchair economists on the SDMB or other online venues – is that an economic depression in the United States is looming.

[John_Mace]

From wikipedia:

Possibility of a 2008 recession in some countries

Further information: Economic crisis of 2008

Since 2007, there had been speculation of a possible recession starting in late 2007 or early 2008 in some countries.

[edit] United States

The United States housing market correction (a consequence of United States housing bubble) and subprime mortgage crisis had significantly contributed to anticipation of a possible recession.

While some economists were confident about a recession[39], others were not as easily convinced.[40] While some believed that the current slowdown would at best be a mild and brief recession,[41] there was always an anticipation that the economy may start recovering in the later part of 2008.[42]

The 2008 performance of the U.S. economy is difficult to predict due to the declining house prices and the subprime crisis, the full impact of which is still unclear.

U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years, supporting the view that the U.S. may fall into a recession. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month predicted the GDP growth will slow to 0.1 percent in January to March.

Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on April 6, 2008 that “There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession.” However Anatole Kaletsky has argued that recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months[43].

On April 29, 2008, several US states are declared by Moody’s to be in a recession, they are as follows: Rhode Island, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Tennessee, California, Nevada and Arizona. [44]

The US Economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, [45] [46] meaning that the US does not meet the widely accepted definition of a recession. However some economists believe in a different definition of recession that suggests that the US is already in one.[47][48]

Clear?

[Voyager]

Recession, maybe, but I haven’t read of any reasonably respectable economist predicting a depression. Given the tools the Fed and Congress have, that seems highly unlikely.

[Freddy_the_Pig]

Since economists have never defined a dividing line between recessions and depressions, I’d be surprised if any “mainstream economist” would make that call either way. To speak of a “depression” calls up images of the Great Depression, with 25% employment, a 25% decline in production over four years, a 90% decline in the stock market, and 30% price deflation. No mainstream economist is predicting a recession anywhere near that severe.