Do people take that draft bill seriously? Is a draft a credible possibility?

Great Debates
1

Checked the archives and looks like there hasn’t been a draft thread (at least, solely about the draft) since July. Sorry if this repeats.

A bit of background. I’ve been aware of the public service bills (S. 89 and H.R. 163) that have been proposed. What I have been told, and have believed, is that these proposals for conscripted military service were nothing more than a provocative bit of political maneuvering. A dramatic anti-war statement. And that once in committee, the bills would stay there. The past year has pretty much borne this out, with little media attention paid to these bills. All I see is the occasional bit of mailing list hysteria when someone hears about this bill for the first time (including, to my amusement, one found as an action alert for fans on Rick Springfield’s homepage).

I mentioned this in another forum recently and discovered that there are, indeed, people who believe a draft is a very real possibility during the next four years (especially if Bush is re-elected, presumably because his foreign policy directives would demand more troops).

I still say no. It’s such a politically sensitive and unpopular idea, I don’t know why any politician would really go for it (even one not facing a re-election fight). Does the Pentagon even want non-voluntary troops? In addition, there are other ways to increase available troops (longer tour of duties, more reserves activated, etc), which might be unpopular but are not as politically explosive as conscription, and I presume these would be explored long before a draft is seriously considered.

What say you? What are the odds of the U.S. having a draft again (whether as a result of the aforementioned bills, or others)? How dire would things have to get? Or would they not have to get dire at all?

2

What do you think would be cheaper - training unwilling recruits from scratch or getting willing recruits to join through increased pay and benefits?

Besides, a draft would have to pass both houses of Congress, and be signed into law by the president. This would be unpopular, and would only be done as a last resort.

I’m on my local Selective Service Board. I’m pretty confident that, barring war with China, I’ll never have to do any actual work.

3

Which just goes to show you how hopelessly, ridiculously, idiotically partisan some people around here are. There are two bills in Congress right now dealing with re-instating the draft. And guess what: THEY’RE BOTH SPONSORED BY DEMOCRATS. Even then, at least of the sponsors, Rangle, freely admits it’s more of a political ploy to drum up anti-war sentiment than anything else.

The draft is wildly unpopular and any politician that seriously advocates it is going to be driven out of office faster than you can say “no blood for oil”.

4

Minor quibble: I have little doubt that training unwilling recruits is much, much cheaper over the long run than increasing pay and benefits. If pay and benefits are increased, with a few narrow exceptions like a yearly bonus pay or reenlistment bonus, those benefits would be perpetual. For example, if you guarantee lifetime free healthcare for anyone who signs up for the Army (an extreme step and a hugely expensive benefit), then there’s not a doubt in my mind that pay and benefits for short time recruits would be a hell of a lot cheaper than that.

But I entirely agree: reinstating the draft would only happen if we got into a war with China, or perhaps with North Korea while we’re still tied down in Iraq.

5

Barring a full scale, all out war with China, Russia, the EU, India, maybe Indonesia or Brazil, or an alien invasion, the chances of a draft in the next 10 years are close to nill. The draft would be political suicide for any politician who proposed it (barring the above circumstances) and anyways, unmotivated draftees aren’t all that effective these days as troops - it would be much more effective to raise benifits & pay, to bring in more motivated troops for the more likely war situations.

Now, the odds of having to fight a serious war against a Great Power in the near future, or fight off aliens, well, that would be an interesting debate.

6

Guaranteeing lifetime free healthcare for anyone who signs up for the Army != Providing lifetime free healthcare for anyone who signs up for the Army.

7

I disagree. Even if you increase benefits significantly, it won’t be perpetual for most military personnel. Most people in the military were like me. I was an enlisted sailor for five years.

We need career people, and we’ll get more of them too with better benefits. We’ll also get some folks who want a little adventure, money for college, and the VA home loan.

There’s no dishonor in doing your four and getting out. We’d always send our separating sailors out with huge parties and well wishes, and most of them did quite well.

8

Sure there are people who take it seriously. Tinfoil is cheap and plentiful.

9

Sure there are people who take it seriously. Tinfoil is cheap and plentiful.

10

A draft is always necessary, and WILL be used anytime the president wants to wage an unpopular war. It was instituted in the civil war, and again before Dec 1941 when most people did not want to go into the army, or get into war.

IF you dont have enough people who want to join up and fight your unpopular war, then the draft WILL be used.

If bush is re-elected, and if he continues to stay in Iraq, and if he decides to also invade Iran, then eventually fewer and fewer Americans will want to voluntarily want to die there, and the draft will be needed, and it will be used.

The middle east has been unstable for a very long time, and its people have not had democracy for a very long time. If bush cannot quickly end this war, and if he cannot bring stability and freedom to the people of the middle east without U.S. troops over there to keep the peace, then more and more American boys will be needed to be in the army, and if we cant get increasing numbers of young american boys to join up to go to the middle east for several years, then we will draft them.

11

There is and always has been a case to be made for reinstating the draft, and I’d be perfectly happy to argue that subject in a different forum. But the GOP has no plans for restoring the draft. In fact, right now, the only politicians calling for a draft are liberal Democrats who are doing so to UNDERMINE the current war effort, in ther belief that almost everyone would be against practically any war if they had sons, brothers or nephews who were subject to a draft.

12

If bush institutes the draft in his second term, he wont care about getting re-elected in 2008. Lincoln drafted people when it was very unpopular, and so did Roosevelt, and both were subsequently re-elected. Our army is much smaller now than it was 20 years ago, so if we continue to fight in the middle east for the next 4 years, we are going to need more bodies to send over there.

13

I disagree. They believe (if I can be so presumptuous as to try to speak for them) that almost everyone would be against unnecessary or ill-advised wars if they had sons, etc., etc. Anti-war sentiment during WWII, for example, was fairly limited, even though vast numbers of people had loved ones getting put in harm’s way. When a war is fought to protect the U.S. from a genuine threat, it seems, the electorate will get behind it. OTOH, when a war is fought to feed the wet dreams of a weird little cabal of advisers, the public will go for it only if it doesn’t affect them directly. If they have to make personal sacrifices, they’re inclined to apply a bit more critical thinking to the situation.

I do agree that the draft is unlikely to reappear, but that’s unfortunate. A draft accomplishes several things. It makes foolish wars more difficult to pursue. It provides young men and women with close exposure to a wider variety of people than they would otherwise experience (and, one hopes, this will make them more tolerant of people from different backgrounds). It gives the military a more diverse group of people, with a wider array of skills and talents than would otherwise be the case. It sprinkles the civilian population with lots of people who have some first-hand understanding of what the military is all about, even if they were only in it for a couple of years (to those of us who didn’t serve, the military culture can be somewhat opaque). Finally, it gives the military a smarter group of people. Maybe we wouldn’t have “Abu Ghraibs” if the soldiers guarding the prison weren’t coming from the same demographic.

14 
In Lincoln times was the vote free for all adults ? Nope. You have to consider that. Women and under 21 years of age probably didn't vote back then... maybe there were restrictions in literacy. Exactly the kind of people who would most likely vote against the draft politicians were excluded from voting.

If the US starts a war against another Middle East country that doesn't involve simply bombing runs... then I can't imagine where they would get enough people... but the draft is still political suicide. If Bush pulls out of Iraq and THEN attacks Iran... expect less and less people to sign up for nasty and long tours of duty. Benefits will have to be quite good to get people into uniform.
15

Riiiiiight. The modern military has changed a lot since Vietnam.

Very little of the middle east has ever HAD democracy.

16

GAO report says Reserve well running dry

17

Recruiting is becoming a problem.

And while the draft measure in Congress was proposed by Democrats, it’s also true that the administration has moved to fill vacant positions on local draft boards.

Of course, it’s prudent to have draft boards at the ready just in case they are needed. But given the above article, one wonders what will happen if our commitment in Iraq drags on, or if we get drawn into a larger engagement in the Middle East. The troops will have to come from somewhere.

18

OK, let’s concede that if the Iraq war drags on forever, there will be fewer and fewer volunteers for the military. Staffing levels will drop. Something will have to be done.

But why would anyone think that a draft would be a solution to the staffing problems? There are about 500 things the president could do before asking congress to reinstate the draft. They could transfer troops from Europe, Japan, South Korea, and the US. They could offer more incentives for volunteers.

And of course, they can always declare victory in Iraq and leave it to collapse into civil war. And I can guarantee you that the Bush administration would abandon Iraq without a second thought it the only alternative were to reinstate the draft.

Let’s face facts. The only people who seriously think a draft is likely are people who oppose the war. And they don’t so much think a draft is likely as they HOPE Bush is so stupid that he would attempt to reinstate the draft. Lets face it, a draft would be massively unpopular. Exactly how long would the Republicans hold on to control of congress when they foist something so unpopular on the American people? Yes, the president wouldn’t face re-election again. But how many seats in the House would the Republicans lose in the 2006 mid-term elections?

Since it would take months to pass the draft bill, and at least a year to draft and train the first batch of conscripts, that would mean that the first sullen and resentful troops would arrive in Iraq just in time for the draft to be repealed by the new Democratic congress. And remember that you can’t just pass a law enacting conscription, you have to PAY for all the uniforms, weapons, food, housing, medical care, etc that hundreds of thousands or millions of conscripts are going to need. Where is the Pentagon going to come up with the money? The Pentagon has enough funding problems without paying for thousands of sullen 18 year olds to turn food into shit.

Let’s stipulate for the sake of argument that each and every Republican is an amoral sociopath who would gladly enslave each and every American if it would mean a few more dollars in the pockets of Haliburton shareholders. But in order to enrich their corporate masters and crush America’s freedoms, don’t they have to hold on to office? Don’t they have to fool the American people and get elected to positions of power so that they can betray us and embezzle from us?

Wouldn’t the draft be so unpopular that these people would be voted out of office? Handing control of congress to the Democrats for a generation isn’t exactly one of their secret plans. You can’t exactly enact the draft in secret. You can PASS the bill by surprise, I guess, but you can’t conscript millions of 18 year olds in secret. Why not let Iraq collapse in civil war instead and blame the Democrats for stabbing our brave soldiers in the back? Why exactly would these shadowy Machiavelian figures blow their cover by doing something so public and so unpopular?

19

Your premise is flawed: “If Bush institutes the draft”. ** BUSH CANNOT INSTITUTE THE DRAFT!!** He CAN ask Congress to do so, but then we’re back to the original problem: Congressmen will not be reelected if they vote to reinstitute the draft. Got it?

20

If winning the war on terror requires us to stay on the offensive for at least four more years, and the military can’t get enough volunteers for its meat grinder, then senators who vote against a draft can easily be portrayed as wanting the terrorists to win. We’ve seen this ‘logic’ used successfully before. Why should it fail now?