I see both sides of this argument on RBG threads. One side thinks that they’ll do it ASAP, and the other thinks they’ll wait until after the election to use it as a carrot for their voters.
Thinking about it, the first is more immediate gratification for Trump, so that’s what he’ll want to do, but practically every other Republican up for election or reelection benefits seems to benefit more from the latter, and I’m not sure they can stop him, even if he would benefit more from waiting and using the issue to get votes.
I have a bizarre idea, based upon the very high value of the open seat. First, I believe the only way Trump doesn’t fill the seat is if 4 Republicans defect and refuse to confirm whoever he nominates, and then for Trump to subsequently lose the election. I know what you all are thinking. Any R senator would be crazy to vote against then nominee. It would be a guaranteed way to end their political career.
Here’s my proposal. Give the Rs 2 more years control of the senate in exchange for leaving the seat vacant for 2 years and letting the 2022 midterms decide the outcome, assuming a Biden victory. How could this be accomplished, you ask? Simple. Have the D challengers to Collins, Tillis, Ernst, and Daines drop out of their races in exchange for those senators voting against whoever Trump nominates. If Trump wins we’re fucked anyway, so fill the seat after the election.
I realize this sounds like a bad idea, but desperate times call for desperate solutions.
Also I think Democrats would be better off attacking McConnell and the process, rather than the nominee, whoever it may be that Trump picks. Make this about Trump and McConnell, not on a nominee who will probably be someone with a clean but very conservative record.
The fuckers are gonna push someone through as quickly as they can. And don’t count on anyone among the R senators or potential candidates to show any decency.
I expect that Trump will nominate someone shortly, but as I said in the other thread I think the bolder move for him would be to announce, “I will nominate a conservative constitutionalist replacement for Justice Ginsburg when I am reelected in November.” Once he nominates a justice, he loses a lot of leverage. McConnell will get his pick through, and Republicans will have locked in a conservative Supreme Court for a generation. At that point, voting for Trump loses some urgency for Republicans.
But if he essentially holds the nomination hostage to his own reelection, Republicans will have to go balls out to secure it – even more so than they are now. It would piss off Republican leaders to no end, but what does Trump care? It’d be like the scene from Goodfellas – “You want this Supreme Court seat? Fuck you, pay me.”
This is going to shine the spotlight on another Senator, Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC). He is up for reelection now and in the most heated race he has faced. His Democratic opponent Jaime Harrison is sure to make this an issue.
IMHO Graham would be reluctant to hold any committee hearing before the election, assuming the Senate has a nomination go through the normal channels. The Senate could bypass the committee entirely if they think they have the votes and time is looking short during a lame duck session.
I, respectfully, could not disagree with this more. The Merrick Garland nomination showed that arguments about Senate process and precedents have zero resonance with voters. What will resonate with voters is showing that the nominee creates an all-but-guaranteed majority to overturn Roe, upend environmental protections, and reign in civil rights protections.
I wonder how soon a newly confirmed justice can hear cases? If he/she were confirmed right before Election Day, could he/she immediately cast votes on electoral cases that arose because of Election Day? You know there are going to be an immense number of legal challenges either way. If it’s Bush-Gore all over again, then Trump is going to want that new 5-4 majority seated before any cases are heard and decided, not after.
There’s no way the Republicans will wait on this. They will act to get another conservative on the court as quickly as possible. Put aside all other calculations; the Republicans know this election is almost certain to end up being decided by the Supreme Court. Hell, for some of them, getting another conservative on the court may be what keeps them out of prison.
Another factor is that you know Biden is going to be facing pressure from the D’s to pack the court if he is elected.
Problem is, saying this in public “I will pack the court if I win” could potentially backfire on Biden with centrist/moderate voters. But if Biden publicly refuses - “I will NOT pack the court if elected” - he could dampen Democratic enthusiasm.
I agree that Trump should wait until after the election. The fight for the presidency comes down to a fight for the middle. Trump won’t gain a single vote by picking someone now but he could pick up some votes if it is seen by some undecideds that he’s “playing fair.” And if he eventually loses the election (please Og, I’ve been good), I don’t think he’ll mind not getting to fill the seat because he only cares about himself and who fills the SC position won’t affect him that much personally.
Actually I think saying “if they confirm a justice it will be the height of hypocrisy after the Gorsuch seat. They already stole one seat and now they’re stealing another. As President I will not stand for this and will take necessary measures” would work.
I meant it more in the sense that Democrats should avoid a Kavanaugh style nomination process. The issues are fine to argue over. Digging into the nominees personal life, however, is likely to backfire.
Once the Senate votes to give Advice and Consent to the nomination the President still has to sign the commission. Once the commission is signed the nominee is officially on the Court and can hear cases immediately. The usual pomp and ceremony are not strictly required, though the new Justice typically takes and oath of office by tradition.
Let’s be clear: A replacement nominated by Trump WILL have a hearing and be voted on by the sitting senate in what’s left of 2020. The question is if the hearings and vote happen before or after the election. The question for Mitch and Lindsay becomes if hthey think they and the other Republicans up for election (and the retiring ones) have more to gain or lose from waving the nomination in front of the troops as a rallying banner or from forcing the entire delegation to have to make aa stand before the election. i.e. do they want to motivate a reward vote or a punishment vote.