is it bad that I am hoping covid sidelines a few republican senators… not kill or seriously injure. just sideline for a few weeks.
Yep, it is all but a done deal at this point that there will be a court with a 6-3 conservative lean, most likely before Election Day. If Trump is reelected there is a good chance of Breyer not lasting until 2024 and the court ending up 7-2 conservative lean.
Oh well. Roe is almost certainly going to be overturned and the Affordable Care Act will undoubtedly be overturned as well. I fully expect to see Obergefell overturned as well. The evangelicals have gotten what they wanted and will go after every issue and cause they feel violates their religious beliefs. I’m not certain exactly how awful it will get but it is likely to be very bad for a long long time.
Romney stated today that he endorses a floor vote. The only Republicans in opposition were Collins and Murkowski, which is not enough.
Getting back to the OP: It’s a tug-of-war between the interests of Trump and the interests of vulnerable Republican senators.
Trump would benefit from an energizing boost of morale from his voters by getting a successful confirmation vote rammed through before Election Day. Vulnerable Republican senators would benefit from postponing it until the lame-duck session.
This is one of the rare times I’ve seen someone talk about a boost Trump could get by getting this done before the election, actually. Most of the discussion I’ve seen theorizes about how Trump could play it to his advantage if the nomination is still up in the air; “vote for me or the next justice won’t be to your liking.”
I wonder which would be greater, and whether a probable, though hypothetical, future opening, like we had before Ginsberg’s death, has any greater or lesser effect than the reality of an actual opening now.
As I argued upthread, I don’t think this is the case any longer (and I agreed with you 24 hours ago – a lot has changed since then!). Susan Collins is now free to cast her “no” vote and bolster her “independent” credentials. McSally and Gardner have either accepted that they’re goners or determined that supporting the President’s pick is either positive or neutral for them. There’s really no benefit in delaying the vote beyond the bare minimum necessary to create some plausible impression of due diligence.
If they vote against it it’s only because they can do so without threatening the confirmation If they had to, they’d vote yes.
Sure, although I still question the premise of many that Collins voting No would help her reelection bid in Maine. It would just torpedo her support among her Republican voter base there, while still not winning over any Democratic votes (who are likely to go to Gideon.) Maybe some independents/centrists would go for Collins, but they must be a mighty thin slice of the pie.
Time will tell, obviously, but I don’t think her voting “no” on a nominee who gets confirmed is going to hurt her with Republican base voters. Trump’s nominee getting seated anyway takes a lot of the oomph out of it, they’re already extremely motivated to turn out by the Presidential race and while they’re in the booth they’re not going to vote for Gideon.
Of course, all bets are off if Trump decides to pick a fight with her over her vote.