Will it be the end of the world/civilization? Or do you think the Earth might rise a degree or two more, and then stop and time will forget what all the fuss was about in the first place?
Even though something like 90 to 99 percent of scientists agree global warming is happening, this is due mostly to the temperatures rising a degree F since the beginning of the 1980s and the results of mathematical projections of this trend, combined with our understanding of physics and the effect on the atmosphere of adding extra gases into the air from industrial activity. While a lot of the countering to global warming theory is based more on people being pro-business than any actual scientific challenge to the theory a mere 35 years of warming plus some computer models of a VERY complex system doesn’t sound like enough evidence to me that we can be anywhere near certain the trend will continue or that humans are even responsible for it.
I actually still have my doubts because I think the climate system is so complex it’s difficult to just assume it will continue to warm indefinitely, but maybe that’s just wishful thinking. There’s also the element of confirmation bias and trend following within science. There’s been consensus within the scientific community about things that were later proved wrong. A good example is black holes which were accepted as fact for decades but many cosmologists now no longer believe exist. I see no way we could lower emissions in a reasonable amount of time though with the rest of the planet industrializing so quickly.
I don’t have a problem with governments putting pressure on big business to pollute less not at all but I also think when it comes to energy there really isn’t a free lunch. Construction of solar panels requires the use of rare earth metals, which cause severe pollution. Wind and hydro power are also very flawed. And I don’t think going back to the stone age is an answer…
The most important green house gas in our atmosphere is water vapor. As the world heats up due to other causes more water evaporates. More water vapor produces more clouds. Clouds can produce both cooling effects and heat trapping effects. Teh understanding of water vapor/clouds is one of the weak points in current knowledge if you look at IPCC 4 and 5.
The most important part of answering your question is the part where the science is the weakest.
First of all, global warming is a fact. When 97% of scientists who are studying climatology agree, that is not confirmation bias, nor is it a conspiracy by scientists for nefarious purposes. How bad it will be is certainly up for debate, as we are working from computer models, rather than something we have personally observed. (I am talking about the effects, not the global rise in temperatures, which has been more than adequately documented).
If we know that certain gases have the effect of trapping sunlight and heat in the atmosphere that would otherwise have been reflected back out into space, and we further know that human activity is resulting in huge amounts of these gases being released into the atmosphere on a continual and increasing basis, how can that possibly NOT result in global warming? In the absence of a mitigating factor (none of which have been observed or even postulated) human activity HAS TO BE causing or at least contributing to the observed warming trend.
What I believe will happen is at least the following:
Major rise in sea level worldwide, with large amounts of coastal lands and cities becoming submerged.
Disruption of weather patterns resulting in increased storm activity and severity of storms. We are already seeing this.
Large scale and widespread disruptions of ecosystems, as species which have evolved to thrive in specific conditions either can no longer find those conditions, or have to move to new locations, where they will now be competing with the species already there. This will likely result in increasing extinctions and loss of biodiversity. We are already seeing this in such species as polar bears and many fish species.
In connection with the last point, agriculture will be affected, as the conditions which currently hold in areas where large-scale agricultural operations exist experience changes in climate, resulting in lower crop yields and possibly forcing changes to the crops being raised.
Taken as a whole, I believe that the planet will become significantly less hospitable to humans. This does not mean the extinction of humanity, as we have proved to be the most adaptable of all species on this world. It will certainly mean that we will be forced to make major changes in the ways that we live. And it may mean that we wind up with a lower population than we currently have.
On the bright side, with its lower albedo (less light and heat being reflected back out into space) we won’t be as visible to the nasty aliens looking for planets to conquer. ;=)
I expect that we’ll see some of the worse* case scenarios, since so many powerful people and organizations are so determined to stop anything from being done about the problem. So yes; major sea level rises, famines, millions of refugees, more and stronger hurricanes, etc. The extinction of humanity is highly unlikely, but the destruction of civilization is a possibility; we don’t know if civilization will continue to be possible in the new climatological era we are entering. Humanity has never existed under such conditions, so we don’t know if, say, agriculture will still be possible in the new climate.
*Not the worst case scenario; *that *would be Earth turning into Venus which is unlikely, and may not be possible at present.
Related to the OP, Der Trihs is talking about the likely things coming for the current relative inaction, the OP is also riffling on the idea that it is too late, it is true that some damage and change is very likely to take place, but it is likely to be manageable the sooner we start, the point here protoboard is that just thinking that it is too late is ignoring that it can get even worse.
IIUC the IPCC has concentrated on more likely scenarios that depend on humanity finally doing a concerted effort to control emissions. The worst emission scenarios were not discussed, because the worse scenarios include worse and very scary possibilities that are too depressing:
So we are now discussing between dealing with simple ocean rise and if we prepare, a refugee problem can also be controlled. That is still better than increasing the chances of a global thermohaline circulation shut down.
So far the worse items in that science video are possible if there is basically no change in our emissions and if we continue doing that for a few more decades, I rather deal with the most likely items and not risk adding worse ones in the future by not willing to change. And one thing we need to change ASAP is to deal with the weakest link in all this.
Conservative politicians that are very active on making the government to be inactive on this issue:
The hard reality is the “Truth” of climate change is not accepted by the average person and is not accepted by politicians. For every 90 reports which say we have a global problem, there are 10 reports which scream not so.
Both sides are given equal weight which is irrational (90 vs 10) but don’t frighten the horses has an overwhelming appeal.
The core issue IMHO is pollution. Never mind esoteric things like greenhouse gases we are killing the bacteria which sustain the planets ecosystem.
The human race won’t die. But billions of people will. And that is a misery we should understand and work to alleviate.
Anyone who asks how bad it can get is unaware of how bad it has already gotten. Our curse as a species is that we rapidly adapt to each new circumstance
I can’t think of any prediction we’ve ever done 50 years out that was accurate, and in general TEOTWAWKI ones have missed the mark most widely.
WRT AGW, I am highly suspect that 50 or 100 years out any specific AGW effects will have had much of a non-amelioratable practical effect on daily living.
We’ll muddle through, and it just will not have been that big a deal, IMHO.
I do think the burgeoning over population will take a very direct–and much more severe–toll on earth’s natural ecosystem. Loss of natural areas; species; perhaps even some hunger crises here and there…
But IMHO AGW effects are going to be a bit of a bust, spectacular-disaster wise.
I’m skeptical. Back when I was in college in the seventies, there was an ICE AGE coming. The scientists all knew it. The journalists all knew it. Most importantly, the college-age protesters all knew it.
Somehow, it hasn’t happened yet, and now they are yammering about warming. Oops, we aren’t sure if it is warming OR cooling, so let’s just call it “climate change” and be covered either way.
You’re just repeating right wing talking points. The scientists didn’t “all know” there was going to be an ice age, and we’re quite sure that it is warming, and like it or not there’s no longer any scientific doubt it’s happening. And science has advanced enormously since then anyway.
Not that it matters much; nothing will be done and that’s that. Not unless things get so bad that a general collapse of civilization is under way, and by then it’ll far too late to do anything useful.
I think the effects will be slightly worse than the worst case scenario. I just can’t imagine even the adaptations the US Navy will have to make as port facilities are covered by water, much less the effects of losing cities like Miami.
Looking at nations like the Grand Caymans, where will the population go? What happens to your citizenship once the land is gone?
With the (silly, IMO) hatred of GMOs, how are we going to raise crops? I don’t think it’s a matter of planting orange trees in Missouri, and lettuce in the UP. The soils are all different.
Of course they’d say that! Can you really believe people who say black holes exist, when their bread and butter comes from discovering things like black holes? :dubious:
One thing that is true is that some pollutants, notably sulfate aerosols, cool the planet; thus anti-pollution measures have exacerbated warming. Unfortunately, deliberate re-introduction of such coolants – which I expect to happen when warming becomes more obvious – doesn’t solve all problems.
) did get ahead and has the basics covered.
