This thread and this article has gotten me wondering, why do people seem to think HBO going streaming will kill Netflix. Now I’m basing the next things I say on how I watch, but I don’t think the overlap between what’s on Netflix and HBO is particularly notable, nor Amazon for that matter although it’s closer in that instance. I equate Amazon (non Prime) with Red Box. I equate Netflix with the old box store type video store with a much expanded selection sans new releases. Don’t get me wrong I’d love to have access to HBOs stand up comedies and maybe some stuff I missed. But that stuff isn’t available now. So what gives?
PS Mods feel free to move this to the Cafe Society if yu feel this is the wrong forum. But since it’s about infrastructure and not content specifically, I thought it should be here.
Amazon Prime is barely a threat as it rarely has anything that Netflix doesn’t already have.
I foresee a Netflix/Redbox hybrid as being a solution for the problems of both. Netflix’s has problems with bad publicity and Redbox’s streaming service with Verizon just shut down. If the two combine, they could create a powerhouse.
That said, NetFlix will have to stay vigilant and aggressive. If they can’t maintain a massive library of material, they could lose their position overnight. HBO streaming alone is not enough of a threat, even if HBO offers a lot of unique content unavailable on NetFlix. A bigger threat would be one of the bigger players - Disney, for example - choosing not to license any of their material to NetFlix. As soon as NetFlix users have to start mixing and matching services, plenty of them will find combinations that no longer include NetFlix.
I don’t see how netflix could be doomed, they are a trendsetter and still basically the only game in town for low cost, high volume legal streaming options. Amazon prime is a distant second, followed by stuff like hulu plus, crackle, etc.
How would that be better than netflix’s model of DVDs by mail? In the good old days you’d spend $9/month and get unlimited (2 at a time I think) DVDs by mail as well as streaming. It might take a day for it to get to your house but it was basically what you are describing, the best of redbox discs and streaming videos. They still have the service, it just costs $16+ now for both.
Netflix doesn’t have to worry about losing ME-HBO has nothing I want to see. I don’t think there’s enough content on it for a lot of people, especially those with kids.
I’d be more worried about HBO. They didn’t say how much they were going to charge. I don’t get it since there is little on it I need to see right now. If the HBO streaming service was cheap enough I might - and so might a lot of people paying for it on their cable bills. If they charge anywhere near what their monthly charge is, no way.
I’m sure each content provider will start offering streaming. But it won’t be worth it except for big fans. If you are willing to wait, you can get it all on Netflix for much less than the sum of the individual charges - and get movies also.
If each of the providers stops letting Netflix stream their stuff, you’ll kill streaming or encourage piracy or both.
IMHO Netflix really has a great thing with their physical DVD library. Their streaming library is crummy (unless you have kids, or haven’t watched television in the past 10 years then it is Everything) and the lack of new movies is frustrating. But you can get everything and anything on their DVD rentals and they have no problems with licensing.
Seems like as soon as they went to streaming all these competitors cropped up and all these media companies said "streaming rights? Uh…we’ll get back to you on that. Never.) But they had the DVD game locked down and humming well before all that.
I like Amazon’s streaming service better because I can pay a couple bucks and get very new movies. If I watched a lot of movies tho it’d be cheaper to put new movie DVDs in my Netflix queue. Netflix streaming has nothing I want to see, movie-wise. Then again neither does Amazon Prime’s “free/included” movies.
So even if someone else emerges as a clear winner in streaming (but right now it seems to be shifting to “pay a bunch of different services! Here is your a-la-carte television, losers!”)…Netflix could still have the DVD market on lockdown. The “every DVD ever” market. If nothing else, it will be EASIER than having all these different services.
Netflix is adapting. It is producing original content, and puting more and more things on streaming. If the DVD rental were slowing down appreciably, then they would add more movies to the streaming function, and up the charge. It has more to fear from things like VUDU, which is all pay-per-view, and gives you the option of buying or renting your streaming content (for as long as VUDU exists), and streams way more new movies. It’s like the best features of On Demand and Hulu, and the content never goes away if you buy it, while the rentals are cheap, and the whole system is much less complicated than Amazon streaming.
VUDU, like Netflix, Hulu and Youtube, broadcasts on internet TVs, or TVs hooked up to Roku devices.
Netflix needs to capitulate and offer more streaming content-- I’d pay couple of dollars more a months for more movies. By 2020, they probably won’t be offering any more DVDs, and will be one of several companies producing original content that streams without ever showing on TV. Or maybe will show as optional On Demand content, but not as station broadcasts.
In 50 years, shows probably won’t air in timeslots on channels anymore. It’s all be streaming content Or whatever the equivalent of streaming will be the. You may have notifications set-up to inform you when a new episode of a show you like has come up, but it’ll all be cable packages and On Demand, through your router, but with a separate screen.
I have HBO through our cable package which comes with the HBO streaming option and instant viewing on the TV. It rarely has anything I want on it though unless I want an actual HBO produced show. Their general movie catalog just isn’t very impressive.
As far as a stock fall because they signed up less new people this quarter than expected, I’m sure that makes investors disappointed but I’d wait for a sustained net loss in subscribers before I started throwing around “Doomed”.
Netflix may not be doomed, but they are in trouble for a number of reasons:
They are by and large not content producers. They rely on other media conglomerates to supply them with content, and those corporations are rapidly developing their own ways to squeeze out middle men like Netflix (eg. HBOgo, Hulu, Showtime Anytime), or sell their individual shows directly to consumers via Amazon or Itunes.
They only have one main revenue stream. HBO has the benefit of cable fees to keep them afloat when one of their shows tanks. Amazon has several other healthy businesses as does Apple, Time Warner, etc. Netflix does not. In 2013, HBO and Netflix had similar revenue (4.9b vs 4.37b respectively), but HBO made much more money (1.8b vs. 228mm respectively). HBO further encroaching into Netflix space by allowing people to get HBOgo independent of cable means Netflix will be directly competing with a healthier, bigger, better run company for the foreseeable future. Amazon alone could afford to operate Prime at a significant loss for years if they wanted to squeeze Netflix.
All of Netflix’s bills are gonna go up, but they can’t really increase their fees much. In 2008, Netflix got content from Starz for $30mm/year. When it came back to the table in 2011, $300 million wasn’t enough for the network. Recently, Netflix stupidly agreed to pay internet providers for quicker steaming for it’s customers, thus ensuring they will be extorted by these companies forever. They also keep paying more and more for licensing, and have now decided to produce expensive content.
Netflix is spread too thin and is involved in areas they have no experience in. So far, Netflix has done okay producing content like OITNB, but they are aggressively expanding, and spending money on questionable things like financing 4 direct to Netflix Adam Sandler movies. They are gonna spend $3b next year on stuff like this, which is REALLY risky given the nature of these things. Additionally, they release everything at once which allows people to come and go when they want to binge watch a show unlike on HBO. There is little evidence the $100mm they spent on 26 episodes of House of Cards is still bringing in and keeping customers. Netflix, smartly, wants to sell content they own. The problem is many of their competitors have a huge head start on them, and have a significant library to attract customers.
That said, I don’t think they will die any time soon. But, they are playing a game that allows for very few mistakes.
brickbacon has enumerated the reasons why they are doomed. The next service gimmick will leave them with a rapidly fading user base. Content providers and communications services will win this game. There’s no real value in a service like Netflix, it’s just an interface.
And they are playing it against Amazon, Google (anytime they want to up their game) and the cable companies. Plus, Reed Hastings proved once he is an ass who doesn’t understand his customer base.
(Not that I mind, I’ve doubled my money twice on Netflix in the past, but I don’t own them now. If they screw up again, I might try for three times.)
We use both Amazon and Netflix extensively - but more and more we use Amazon - their free Prime content is a good match for Netflix - but more and more we buy current seasons from Amazon or rent new releases though Amazon (we cut cable years ago).
I meant movies hitting Redbox and being able to stream them at the same time.
There are never going to be enough RedBox DVDs to go around and many people don’t have enough bandwidth to stream endless films.
Personally I have a enough data on my own phone plan to watch endless movies ( i was grandfathered in) however many people are restricted to 2-4GB a month. If there was a RedBox service which showed the near latest run films on my phone, I’d probably drop my satellite movie package and simply watch them on the phone or streaming to my laptop.
I think that a Netflix/RedBox hybrid, showing films almost as soon as pay-per-view would be a profitable business model.
I won’t be surprised if almost all major ISPs impose data limits within the next few years. In such a case, Netflix’s huge DVD library gives them an important advantage.