Poll to come.
Me, I hope so. I like to think so. Whatshisname* said he is planning to have manned flight to Mars sometime before 2030, but whether: A. I’ll still be alive then or B. His estimations are correct…I don’t know.
*Elton? Elon? E something. E…uh…Musk? I could just look it up before I submit this, yeah, but it would feel like cheating. I don’t know the exact name and I feel fine admitting it. I think it’s Elon Musk, though.
2030? That’s 13 years from now. I hope so. I’m 60, so I don’t even know if I’ll be around 10 years from now, but I sure hope so.
Yes. Though I doubt it will be a Musk operation.
No. No way. Not at all. Negative.
There’s no reason for it when we can send machines.
The cost is absolutely ludicrous.
I cant imagine stranding people there, and I can’t imagine how a spacecraft will blast off from there.
Too many logistics issues with food, water, fuel.
No. And actually, I might state that not only will this not happen in my lifetime, but perhaps not even EVER! Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
I hope so.
I was going to say by the time I’m 50, but I forgot that is 2035, so I’d say the 2030 goal is realistic.
I’ll be 85 in 2030. I don’t think I’ll make it.
If I’m lucky I have 30 years left. Considering the last 30 years, anything might happen, so I wouldn’t rule it out. But I also wouldn’t expect it, there are a lot of impractical logistics involved that may make it unlikely to come together, let alone be technologically possible.
Nope. Not a chance.
I’d love to be proven wrong though.
I’m 29, so probably yes.
We can send machines to Mt. Everest, but people still insist on climbing the darn thing anyway. 
I’d say that barring some kind of accident or unexpected illness I’ve got 50-80 years left in me, and I certainly expect someone to at least make an attempt in that time.
I voted No, it will take longer, because of the complexity and cost.
Also, I looked up my answer in this thread from 2013.
I voted “I think so, yes”. I almost voted “Yes, I am pretty sure.”
The technology is really coming and there’s a strong desire to go which will be enough reason to do it.
Everest can be climbed in a couple of months. And there’s something to see there.
Mars, on the other hand, is a dump. Anyone stupid enough to go to there deserves to be there.
The reason to go to Mars is to ensure the survival of the human species by, so to speak, not keeping all our eggs in the same basket. Whether that’s enough of a motivation to organise something whilst it’s still so difficult is debatable. Elon Musk thinks it is, but he’s reliant on vast numbers of willing and wealthy passengers to make it happen not to mention a thousand other things all slotting into place. Even if it goes ahead relatively smoothly it’s overwhelmingly likely to take longer than planned. The plan is extremely but deliberately ambitious.
Absolutely not ever. The technical obstacle of cosmic radiation is unsolvable ever. Machines can do anything people can do and significantly cheaper. No reason to do it, it’s impossible, and nobody will ever be able to afford it.
It is not impossible. It is just pointless but that never stopped anybody (kind of like the moon landings or even Mt. Everest climbs except much more expensive). It would also probably need to be a one-way trip (AKA a suicide mission) but there are a surprising number of people willing to do it. The main challenge is just figuring out how to keep people alive during the trip (mostly done already with the ISS), survive the descent to the surface and live a little while once they are there. Once you define it that way, it is completely possible.
I am 43. I don’t really expect it will happen in my lifetime (and certainly not before 2030) but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens when I am really old.
I voted for the 4th option. I would love to see it, but I think it’s going to take longer than we thought.
And I say that as someone who was sooooooo into the Apollo program. I was in Jr High, and read anything I could get my hands on about it. I even did my 7th grade Science Fair project on the Apollo 11 moon landing (that would have been the spring before it happened). And I got 2nd place, overall, even though the stupid teacher who announced my project called it “Apollo 2”. Hey, doesn’t NASA use Roman Numerals for their missions? :rolleyes:
I put the chances around 98%. The real question is will anyone return from mars in that time as I anticipate it being a one way trip until mars has its own rocket program. Also when will the first non-vegan go since I believe it’ll be a lot longer before livestock can make the journey.
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I agree.
Mary Roach’s book “Packing for Mars” convinced me that unless we can find a way to make spaceships travel faster, we will never have (wo)manned interstellar or even interplanetary travel.
When I was a kid in the late 1950s and 60s, I was an avid reader of scifi, tales of mining the asteroids, etc. Then came Apollo, and I was sure we were headed for the stars. Just a matter of time.
Now I have come to understand that there are so many problems like cosmic rays involved in long manned space voyages to airless worlds when rovers like Curiosity and spacecraft like Cassini are able to make discoveries which probably outmatch anything a person could do. It only promises to get better as AI develops. Imagine the power of AlphaGo teamed up with the the next few generations of Mars rovers. I won’t say people will never go there, but I don’t think it will be soon.