He’s already starting to whip up his supporters into a frenzy. If losing looks more and more inevitable, this is what we will see: “Democrats are coming for your guns. They’re coming to take your farm and clean your bank accounts so that they can give your hard-earned money away to immigrants. This is your last chance to save your country from urban-dwelling minorities.”
Don’t know about everyone else, but I voted for Democrats to stop Republican madness - that was enough for me. Gridlock is unfortunately a feature of our political system, and voters have a responsibility to learn more about how their system works instead of just complaining about it. Voters should stop feeling deflated and disappointed about gridlock and continue punishing Republicans who support the politics of oligarchy.
I didn’t vote, because any vote would be a wild guess. Until Nate Silver says something is likelier than not, backed by polling data, then it’s just a guess.
Right, that’s the point - they’re trying to focus on an agenda that voters don’t care about (because it’s basically a fantasy to pass any bill through both houses of congress at this point) instead of what voters want, which is an end to the madness and investigations into the Trump administration. At least, according to Slate.
I think Wisconsin is the weak spot for the Dems, not Pennsylvania this time around. The suburbs have turned against the Republicans and Allegany and the Philly counties are going to carry the state for the blues.
But Trump is still the slight favorite. He’s the incumbent, we have a strong economy and too many Americans are ok with his stupidity, hatefulness and bigotry.
Yeah, we all said that in 2016, too. Remember? His out-of-shape heart would explode; he’d get bored, turn everything over to Pence and quit; he’d get caught red-headed doing something reprehensible, like cheating with a hot stripper/porn actress right after his hot wife gave birth to his baby; the religious right would tire of him as soon as he got the 5th conservative on the Supreme Court; the Republican business establishment would tire of him; he’d be impeached as soon as the House and Senate both flipped in 2018. Did I miss anything?
No. My reasoning:
1- He isn’t running against Hillary
2- People are getting tired of his shtick.
3- Democrats are energized
4- He isn’t running against Hillary
5- Women are terrified about him nominating more SC justices
6- Farmers have been getting screwed by his tariffs
7- He isn’t running against Hillary
8- The middle class saw no benefits to his tax cuts
9- Decent people are offended by seeing refugee children in cages
10- He isn’t running against Hillary
11- He has been exposed as the racist piece of shit that he is
12- Those mining and manufacturing jobs never came back
13- He isn’t running against Hillary
He got in by virtue of running against the only person in the country who could lose to him in 2016. That simply won’t happen in 2020. A lot of people who voted for him as a lark have learned something and will not make that same mistake in 2020.
I think that the odds are against Trump. But then, the odds were against him in 2016, and he won that one. He can still win it again.
Even though “no” is the closest of the two positions in the poll to my position, I think that it vastly overstates my level of confidence, and so I abstain from the poll.
My bold prediction - if Biden is elected as the Democratic candidate, Tr*mp will win. Of all the Democratic candidates, Joe Biden is The System personified.
If Joe Biden is not elected Democratic candidate, Tr*mp will win, because voters are scared of an unknown quantity.
You didn’t give us a third option - I have a strong feeling there will be no vote. Tr*mp will manufacture a crisis to prevent it. He’s closely following the Fascist playbook.
I think he can win, but is not the favorite. I’d give him about a 40% chance, which is still too high for comfort as far as I’m concerned. On the one hand, he’ll have the advantage of running as an incumbent, and probably one with no major wars or economic crises on his record; on the other hand, he barely won last time due to a slightly flukey set of circumstances, he hasn’t done anything to expand his appeal beyond the people who already voted for him last time, and demographics are not really on his side.
As covered elsewhere 2020 with the exact same demographic turnouts and shares as 2016 would be a Trump loss, flipping all of PA, MI, and WI. WI being the one that might stay if all third party votes “went home”, which would be an EV tie.
If the election was held today, with the economy doing great, against most of the likely D nominees, Trump would do worse than against Clinton. His popularity has not gone up since 2016. The economy is unlikely to get better.
So a 2020 D has to do worse than Clinton with one or more demographic to lose.
Some nominees could pull that off. But it is not probable. Sanders could lose it, for example.
Most won’t ignore and disrespect white non college-educated voters as much as Clinton did, or drive votes to Trump with the less informed fearful of socialism. Few will get less turnout from young white progressives than Clinton did. Many would do as well or better with Black voters and Hispanic voters as she did.
Any chance of Trump winning is too big but he is not the favorite.
Pretty much where I come down. I voted “no” because I honestly don’t think it is likely given his strong negatives. But he’s an incumbent, the economy is still chugging along on the surface and he has a highly motivated base. I won’t be shocked if he wins again. Horribly disappointed, but not shocked.
I thought it unlikely that he would win in 2016. I still get the feeling that his volatility makes it unlikely to win 2020. And the thing is, if he could keep his mouth shut and pass infrastructure bills he’d probably win a crushing victory in 2020. But that fool had no filter.
The one big lesson that Trump has taught other, smarter politicians is that exploiting emotional rhetoric is more powerful than originally thought.